Game 4, move 6 : Herd 3-3

[diane]

ok, doubles...lots of room for error...

[KDP]

 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s_razor

Spoiler

13-7 (2)

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[stog]

Spoiler

i liked the more versatile 13/10(3), 6/3

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[KissMyAss]

Spoiler

  i just voted for what i would do.  i have no clue what i'm doing or my rating would be higher.  lol 

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

The clear choice is between A) making the bar point and  B ) bringing down 3 while making the 3 point.

I initially voted for B - by stripping the midpoint we prepare to clear it.  Making the 10 gives us a landing spot, blocks 55, and the spare on it allows us to delay having to break the midpoint.  Finally, making the 3 point has to be worth something.

In favor of A, the main advantage is that the 7 point will be much easier to clear than the 10 when we get to that point.  Making the 10 means making a point we'll just have to clear in a few rolls.  Yes, the 10 blocks the 55 joker, but that's not a very strong reason to make it.  The blots on the 3 and 2 are maybe a little problematic, but we'll make both those points before long so


What tips it for me is the 4 6 8 10 structure after play B - four points in a row with a gap between each of them.  This tends to lead to awkward rolls, so I'm switching to 13/7(2).

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[stiefnu]

Spoiler

13-7(2) unstacks our bloated mid while making a useful 3-prime and so shades it for me.

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[ah_clem]

XGR++

Spoiler

A rather unexpected result.  Not that the top move was unforeseen - the herd's play comes out on top by a substantial margin - but that the  2nd 3rd and 4th best plays are what they are.

13/1??  13/10(3) 4/1?  WTF?  What is the utility of having blots on the 1,2,and3 points?  Or 1,2,3,and 4?

I understand that bringing down 3 makes a point that will be difficult to clear later, but it makes no sense to me that 4/1 would be better than 6/3 after bringing down 3.




XGID=--AABbC-C---cE----acbbb---:0:0:1:33:3:1:0:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:3 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X              O |   | O  O  O  O       |
| X                |   | O  O  O  O       |
| X                |   | O                |
| X                |   |                  |
| X                |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
| O           X    |   | X                |
| O           X    |   | X  O  X          |
| O           X    |   | X  O  X  X  X    |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 120  O: 128 X-O: 3-1/5
Cube: 1
X to play 33

    1. XG Roller++ 13/7(2)                      eq:+0.581
      Player:   70.65% (G:2.04% B:0.05%)
      Opponent: 29.35% (G:1.21% B:0.02%)

    2. XG Roller++ 13/1                         eq:+0.503 (-0.078)
      Player:   68.16% (G:2.80% B:0.04%)
      Opponent: 31.84% (G:1.89% B:0.03%)

    3. XG Roller++ 13/10(3) 4/1                 eq:+0.486 (-0.095)
      Player:   67.72% (G:2.39% B:0.04%)
      Opponent: 32.28% (G:2.44% B:0.05%)

    4. XG Roller++ 13/4 6/3                     eq:+0.464 (-0.117)
      Player:   66.85% (G:1.57% B:0.02%)
      Opponent: 33.15% (G:1.58% B:0.02%)

    5. XG Roller++ 13/10(3) 6/3                 eq:+0.456 (-0.125)
      Player:   66.52% (G:1.78% B:0.03%)
      Opponent: 33.48% (G:2.33% B:0.03%)


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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[Zorba]

If the bot is right, then it must be the long-term value of the spare on the sixpoint (good for playing potentially awkward fours and fives). The 6/3 play is less flexible in comparison. Kit Woolsey is famous for his statement "you can't say enough good things about a spare on your sixpoint".

The four homeboard blots after 4/1 are not really a concern here, as they figure to get covered soon, before any hitting might start. Flexibility might be very important after playing 13/10(3), as clearing the mid, the ten and the eight safely is no walk in the park.