Game 2, move 6: roadkillbooks 6-4

[Zorba]

rkb (white) 6-4?

62YcAAZwuzkAAw:MAGzABAAAAAA

[roadkillbooks]

Spoiler

argh...should i stay or should i go now......if i stay there could be trouble....if i go it may be doublei



old self..id always leave early
been learning to hold my ground and not run.
...but its right to run
..don't do it
...but i hate playing in front of the anchor
it will make it easier for them to anchor away
pros of running with 20/14, 10/6
-blue cant leave even with 5's..huge amount of point numbers, outfield coverage.
cons....im a sitting duck for a bunch of hit numbers that coupled with a dance and  a forum 5..it will be lights out. 
4-1 and 4-3, 1-1 and 4-4 sortof
does that fact that im ahead influence me...
well running is more aggressive. stay back is more conservative. I could live with both.

I think my lead will tilt me towards staying put...
the 4.5 point board is a little intimidating....why didnt the forum run...my move would be easier..
10/6, 7/1

[close]

[diane]

Spoiler

argh...should i stay or should i go now......if i stay there could be trouble....if i go it may be double
the 4.5 point board is a little intimidating....why didnt the forum run...my move would be easier..
10/6, 7/1

[close]

Spoiler

 What I would have done, for very similar, angst ridden reasons....The safety of the prime with only 5's for us to escape, makes you want to run - but all those enemy soldiers waiting to fall on your head in the forum homeboard makes it just too scary!!
Boy am I glad we didn't follow a drunk, er medicated, stog into a run    

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[vikingblood80]

Spoiler

Usually with a 5-prime and our weird structure its just OK to run even with some gammon-danger the last man being closed out and us (the Forum) managing to escape from behind that broken prime.In this particular situation I think staying back is better because except 5-5 most of the rolls of us play very poorly..the 4 is even our nightmare number cause it has to be played from the 6-point and every 6 has to be played from the 9-point leaving us in a very very inflexible position. So just sit back and try to get a shot. I also would have played 10/6 7/1.

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[Zorba]

Spoiler

10/6 7/1 was my choice too, let the prime do its destructive work just a bit longer, before running. After all, rkb is still behind in the race, so not much hurry to run. The alternative 7/1 5/1 makes the point but is too inflexible I think, with two checkers out of play and the spare placed ugly at 6-away from our anchor.

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[playBunny]

 
Rollout 1296 trials, 2-ply throughout

Spoiler

Making the ace point is better (perhaps unless the blot there is intended to be sacrificial).

# .. Move ......... Equity . (Diff).... Win ..... WinG .. WinBg -- Lose ... LoseG . LoseBg
1 .. 7/1 5/1 ...... +0.617 ............ 61.5% .. 14.1% ... 0.6% -- 38.5% ... 8.0% ... 0.2%
2 .. 20/14 10/6 ... +0.582 (-0.035) ... 62.5% .. 11.0% ... 0.8% -- 37.5% .. 10.6% ... 0.1%
3 .. 10/6 7/1 ..... +0.569 (-0.047) ... 60.7% .. 13.9% ... 0.8% -- 39.3% ... 8.7% ... 0.2%
Std Err ............ 0.009 ............. 0.1% ... 0.2% ... 0.1% --- 0.1% ... 0.1% ... 0.1%
 
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 863591424 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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