Game 6, move 5 : forum 5-3

[diane]

Forum, blue, to move 5-3

mGeWAwLg8+AAMg:8ImuACAAIAAA

[stog]

Spoiler

have added 13/5* as an option

[close]

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Seems to me that the only choice is between hitting loose on the 5 and making the three point.

If gammons counted I'd quietly make the three.  But they don't.

A  fourth man back isn't all that bad, and if we can make our 5pt we've accomplished something.  Making the three is perhaps worthwile, but I don't like the idea of playing behind the runner this far behind in the race - we need to maintain contact.

So, 13/5* for me.  

[close]

[ah_clem]

have added 13/5* as an option

Couldn't you have just added an asterisk to the second choice?  Now we have both 13/5 and 13/5* as choices.

[stog]

yes, but i think i began my edit while diane was still uping the poll...... sry diane! -
ive deleted the unasterisked unvoted for option that wasn't there when i first edited... all's well that ends well

[diane]

yes, but i think i began my edit while diane was still uping the poll...... sry diane! -
ive deleted the unasterisked unvoted for option that wasn't there when i first edited... all's well that ends well

Do we have gremlins on FB?  When I saw the comment about adding the option, I was confused, because I knew I put that in...I didn't edit the poll....so how comes anyone saw a version without it 

I did get a phone call half way through posting the original poll, but you shouldn't have seen anything until I finished...surely..oh, and it def had an asterix when I typed it     

[dorbel]

Spoiler

I vote for hitting, but note how this leaves us with the midpoint stripped and awkward stacks on the 8 & 6pts. Good playable structure in cubeless games is so important, that I wouldn't mind if a partner wanted to make the 3pt. After all, only 5 rolls safety both blots for rkb (!), so we usually get a second pop and we'll have a board. Actually, I'm starting to like the 3pt more and more! I wonder...........just kidding, hitting is right I think

[close]

[stiefnu]

The various possible moves are listed but, for the last few days, I cannot see any way to vote on this one. 

Spoiler

13;5* would be my choice

[close]

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

Unsurprisingly, hitting loose on the 5 is the preferred move. 

Surprisingly,  8/5* 8/3   is the second choice ( but not by much).

    1. Rollout          13/5*                        Eq.:  -0.374
       0.335 0.097 0.010 - 0.665 0.274 0.013 CL  -0.374 CF  -0.374
      [0.002 0.004 0.002 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]

    2. Rollout          8/5* 8/3                     Eq.:  -0.410 ( -0.036)
       0.326 0.087 0.012 - 0.674 0.321 0.021 CL  -0.410 CF  -0.410
      [0.003 0.004 0.002 - 0.003 0.004 0.002 CL   0.007 CF   0.007]

    3. Rollout          8/3 6/3                      Eq.:  -0.411 ( -0.037)
       0.310 0.082 0.006 - 0.690 0.226 0.008 CL  -0.411 CF  -0.411
      [0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]

    4. Rollout          8/5* 6/1                     Eq.:  -0.420 ( -0.046)
       0.318 0.077 0.010 - 0.682 0.327 0.017 CL  -0.420 CF  -0.420
      [0.003 0.003 0.002 - 0.003 0.003 0.002 CL   0.007 CF   0.007]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 872235963 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[close]

[diane]

The various possible moves are listed but, for the last few days, I cannot see any way to vote on this one. 

Spoiler

13;5* would be my choice

[close]

I lock the voting when I move the game along, you have to get here quick to take part