Game 2 Move 3 Forum to play 6-3

[ah_clem]

Anything I missed?  Just ask. 

As usual, the vote closes ~ 24 hours after the posting timestamp, earlier if it's lopsided.

[roadkillbooks]

Spoiler

I like making the 5 point here.  We allready have a better board and this solidifies that advantage.  If/when we are hit we will have plenty of return shots.  I even like it when our oponent gets 4-2 and has to decide what to do.  By hitting us.. he also stays stacked. I think it way to early to abandon our mid-point here. Making the 5 point is an action play.. it says.. yeah you may hit me but we're very strong inspite of that. A weak hit good also lead to a very powerful double next roll.

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

My first instinct is to make our 5 point with 11/5 8/5.  Making the 5 point can't be that bad, can it?  But the problem with this move is that it leaves the bar point open to a double shot, and hitting here for blitzxz is particularly valuable as it aids his escape.  I think we really need to do something about the bar point, so I'm going to eschew 11/5 8/5. The other thing I don't like about this move is that it strips the 8, however I don't really mind stripping the 8 to make the 5; after all that's what the spare on the 8 is for.

The next candidate for consideration is to hit with our blot 7/1*.  This knocks him off balance and dosen't leave as good a target.  Then where to take the 3?  8/5 is too risky, 11/8 is too passive, so that leaves 23/20 to slot the golden point.  7/1* 23/20.  Looks good.  Is there something better?

How about a blitz? - 13/7 13/10.  As they say, blockade two checkers, hit a single blot.  This forms a nice blockade and threatens to make it stronger.  The problem is that this abandons the midpoint early in the game.  Is that the end of the world?  No, but it's a structural weakness that will be with us for the rest of the game. 

I think I'm going to go with  7/1* 23/20.  It's the most flexible play. 

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[stiefnu]

Spoiler

Well, I quite fancy making our bar point with 18-7 and running one of the back men, say 23-20 to slot his GP.  It consolidates our position and keeps things flexible.  I'll be interested to learn why this is probably a Bad Idea...

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[roadkillbooks]

Spoiler

Making our golden point is a powerhouse position.  Even if we are hit we have a 2 way forward game (prime or blitz).  IF we are hit it just means that our opponent did not make an inner board point and the piece will be recycled.  We can even exchange hit a couple of times..it our powerful home board against his nothing board.  When the choice is between making the bar or the golden point.. making the 5 is almost always better.  IF he wants to try to escape a piece fine.. we will have a target to hit or we can blitz the one thats left.  I think its a blunder to do anything but the golden point.  I dont see a need to hit to take him off balance either... why so he wont make his golden point? Even if I knew he was ging to roll 31 next turn I make the golden point.

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[diane]

why this is probably a Bad Idea...

Where did you learn about Bad Ideas? 

rkb - why is blitz rolling 3-1 significant?

[dorbel]

Spoiler

Well, I quite fancy making our bar point with 18-7 and running one of the back men, say 23-20 to slot his GP.  It consolidates our position and keeps things flexible.  I'll be interested to learn why this is probably a Bad Idea...

Sometimes it can be quite difficult to say why something is bad. In this case the abandonment of the midpoint early in the game is a big minus. 4 blots is a big minus. Worst of all perhaps is 23/20. A major weakness of Red's position is that he is stacked on the 8 and 6 pts, making it hard for him to develop a good position. Stacks don't develop easily, but they are very good at blitzing and Red will hit happily with eights, threes and ones. Lastly, a play is bad if another play is better! 13/7, 13/10 looks better to me, fewer shots and the 10pt is a useful place for a blot. Best of all though is surely 11/5, 8/5, giving us a powerhouse double after a bad sequence for Red and a playable position if he can roll well.

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[stiefnu]

Spoiler

a play is bad if another play is better!

So very true!  I stand corrected and have duly changed my vote.

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

... A major weakness of Red's position is that he is stacked on the 8 and 6 pts, making it hard for him to develop a good position. Stacks don't develop easily, but they are very good at blitzing and Red will hit happily with eights, threes and ones.

He'll happily hit loose against our fragmented two point board.  But if we have a three point board he'll have to think twice about hitting.  We still have two checkers to bring around and that may be our biggest problem to solve - having a strong board is like having an usher that escorts the runners to safety. The five point radiates strength all across the board.

Which is a long winded way of saying that I'm throwing my vote to 11/5 8/5.  That makes the vote lopsided enough to move it along, which I shall do.

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[ah_clem]

G-rated bot results so as not to give away the cube decision

Spoiler

Making the 5 pt is correct by a wide margin.  Surprisingly, 23/20 13/7 - covering the bar point and slotting our golden point- is superior to bringing down both midpoint checkers.  My hitting play is awful - a double whopper with cheese.




    1. Rollout          11/5 8/5                     Eq.:  xxx

    2. Rollout          23/20 13/7                   Eq.:  ( -0.134)

    3. Rollout          13/10 13/7                   Eq.: ( -0.165)
       
    4. Rollout          24/21 13/7                   Eq.: ( -0.179)
       
    5. Rollout          13/7 11/8                    Eq.: ( -0.201)
       
    6. Rollout          23/20 7/1*                   Eq.: ( -0.258)

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