Game 1, move 9: r_monk to move 3-1

[diane]

1m4bABC0zQ4BMA:AYGlAAAAAAAA

[r_monk]

9/6 3/2*
I think the only other option is 13/10 3/2* - hitting is necessary, hope I can keep you on the bar for a little while, so that I can break your prime by threatening the 3-point.
Think 9/6 will be better, I'm not sure about that. Keeping my blot on the outside seems safer to me.

[ah_clem]

This is mainly supposed to be a learning exercise, so I hope our guest won't mind a little second guessing.

Is the hit correct here? My winning plan as White would be to let the blue runner sit and watch blue's board crunch, so I wouldn't hit.  As for what to play, I'd leave the checker on the midpoint so as to possibly hit an escapee and keep all my made points and that leaves 9/5 as the one remaining play.  One caveat is that this is a timing thing and I still suck at the timing thing.

Hitting does have the advantage of taking away half a roll that could be used to cover the blot in blue's homeboard, so it might well be right, but I'll still stick with the 9/5 play.  One thing is clear - if you're going to hit loose, use the 3 to bring a checker into range to cover the blot with 9/6.  Playing the three off the midpoint has to be inferior.

Since White is not close to a recube (yet) I see no harm in doing a rollout.  We'll see in about an hour.....stay tuned....

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

gnubg 0-ply likes the hit.  There's a non-hitting play within the margin of error, but it's not the non-hitting play I suggested.  I have no idea why 13/12 9/6 is better than 13/10 9/8  or why both are better than 9/5.  Ideas anyone?

Good job finding the best play among several close ones.



    1. Rollout          9/6 3/2*                     Eq.:  -0.275
       0.383 0.086 0.005 - 0.617 0.231 0.029 CL  -0.457 CF  -0.275
      [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.002 CL   0.006 CF   0.009]

    2. Rollout          13/12 9/6                    Eq.:  -0.282 ( -0.007)
       0.385 0.064 0.007 - 0.615 0.230 0.034 CL  -0.477 CF  -0.282
      [0.002 0.001 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.006 CF   0.010]
       
    3. Rollout          13/10 9/8                    Eq.:  -0.294 ( -0.019)
       0.385 0.060 0.006 - 0.615 0.231 0.034 CL  -0.479 CF  -0.294
      [0.002 0.001 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.002 CL   0.006 CF   0.010]

    4. Rollout          13/10 3/2*                   Eq.:  -0.314 ( -0.039)
       0.372 0.081 0.007 - 0.628 0.232 0.032 CL  -0.487 CF  -0.314
      [0.002 0.001 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.002 CL   0.007 CF   0.010]

    5. Rollout          9/5                          Eq.:  -0.331 ( -0.056)
       0.370 0.062 0.006 - 0.630 0.232 0.033 CL  -0.517 CF  -0.331
      [0.002 0.001 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.006 CF   0.010]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 896490702 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[close]