Game 1, move 9: Herd - ready to cube yet?

[diane]

Ok - time to cube, or not?

[KDP]

Spoiler

no way im cubing here.  if we are a favorite be are barely a favorite to win the game.  we are behind in the race, the gap on the 5 pt is a problem as are the 4 checkers we need to bring home.  roll and hope for the best.

[close]

[Julia_H]

Spoiler

We're way off the racing position for a double. Does having the back man help us? Well, we'll gain rapidly in the race if he can't hop out quickly as White can't move 6s, and too many 5s will waste pips dumping men deep. However, I don't think even our 7 pointing-out numbers are decisive, and making either the five or the bar leaves the other wide open for a quick escape. Couple a reasonably useful roll for us (eg. 51, make the bar, bring a back man forward to cover our outer table) with the back White man staying put, and we're getting much warmer.

[close]

[ah_clem]

XGR++

Spoiler

We're a favorite, but not by enough.



XGID=-aBDB-CAA---------Bdbbdb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|                X |   | O  O  O  O  O    |
|                X |   | O  O  O  O  O    |
|                  |   | O        O       |
|                  |   | O        O       |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |          X       |
|                  |   | X        X       |
|                  |   | X     X  X  X    |
|             X  X |   | X     X  X  X  O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 93  O: 82 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in XG Roller++
Player Winning Chances:   56.59% (G:1.03% B:0.02%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 43.41% (G:5.30% B:0.17%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.091, Double=+0.163

Cubeful Equities:
       No double:     +0.226
       Double/Take:   -0.097 (-0.322)
       Double/Pass:   +1.000 (+0.774)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 22.7%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

[close]