Game 1, move 11 : Herd to cube?

[diane]

Linus rolled 6-5, which was a forced move of Bar/14

Ready to cube yet?

I am away for Easter, but should be able to keep it moving - I'm uploading the file though, Just in case I have no reception in the middle of the Murray river  

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

We're 1 in 6 to hit, after which we win about 85% of the time.  If we don't hit, we're about four pips below the Trice point (point of last take) in a straight race.  Since we have some additional hitting chances, let's say we win about 25% of the games where we don't hit.

(1/6 * .85) + (5/6 * .25) does not add up to a double.  I don't even need to do the math.

Roll.

[close]

[KDP]

Spoiler

i dont want to say " i told you so" regarding the open 5 pt but..............  ND

[close]

[diane]

5-0 seems pretty decided..so I will move along before leaving for my river holiday 

[ah_clem]

XGR++

Spoiler

There are situations where it is correct to cube with 33% GWC, but this is not one of them.

Sure, we've got 24/36 to hit, but 67% to hit doesn't translate into 67% to win - that open 5 point is an invitation to out race us.


XGID=-CBBB-BAA--a------Bdbbcc--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10

Analyzed in XG Roller++
Player Winning Chances:   33.56% (G:0.33% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 66.44% (G:1.80% B:0.06%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=-0.343, Double=-0.662

Cubeful Equities:
       No double:     -0.518
       Double/Take:   -1.379 (-0.860)
       Double/Pass:   +1.000 (+1.518)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 26.6%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

[close]