Game 4, move 14 : Herd to Cube

[diane]

Clem isn't here to ask..but I thought we should revisit this anyway..

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

For money, his point of last take would be 6 pips down*, so if we were ahead by 6 pips he'd be at about 22% to win the game. Linus's takepoint AtS is 18%, so  at 2% per pip, he could still take with an 8 pip deficit.

We are up by 18 pips in the race.  This one ain't close. Ship it and see if he wants to play this game for the match.


*Using the trice count - subtract 5 from our pipcount, divide by 7, round down. (47-5)/7 == 6

[close]

[ah_clem]

Diane,

I'd like to roll out all the recent decisions, and it would be a lot easier if i had the .sgf file instead of setting up each position by hand.

So, please post it as soon as it is convenient.  thanks.

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

at 92% GWC, it's pretty clearly a double/pass.


XGID=-BCAC-D--------a---bdcbba-:0:0:1:00:3:1:0:5:3

X:Herd   O:Linus
Score is X:3 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|       O          |   | O  O  O  O  O  O |
|                  |   | O  O  O  O  O    |
|                  |   |    O  O          |
|                  |   |    O             |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   | X                |
|                  |   | X     X     X    |
|                  |   | X     X     X  X |
|                  |   | X     X  X  X  X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 47  O: 65 X-O: 3-1/5
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
  Player Winning Chances:   91.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 8.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances:   91.99% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 8.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.840, Double=+2.355

Cubeful Equities:
       No double:     +0.969 (-0.031)
       Double/Take:   +1.983 (+0.983)
       Double/Pass:   +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
  Confidence No Double: ± 0.001 (+0.968..+0.970)
  Confidence Double:    ± 0.000 (+1.983..+1.983)

  Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
  Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

  Duration: 25.8 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

[close]