Fibsboard Forum Match 18 Game 3 Move 14 Herd to cube?

[stiefnu]

juanz has chosen to stack his 6-pt. Should the Hard should push the cube across now, or keep plugging away for a match-winning gammon? Whatever, I thought it would be worth asking the question.

5-pt match, juanz 0-3 Herd
Pipcount: juanz (red) 153, Herd (black) 120

Steve

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

AtS, the doubling window is so small that you basically need it to be a cash before you can cube.  This isn't a cash, and there are some gammon chances. 

ROLL.

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[dorbel]

Spoiler

The temptation at this score is to play on for a gammon, with the thought of, "Well I will cash later if things go badly". It often leads us in the wrong direction, usually because we are afraid of that recube, rather than really thinking that we are too good. The doubling window isn't much different to what it usually is, i.e it opens at about 70%. You need to ask yourself the usual question, "Am I sure that this is a take?" If the answer is no, it's a cube unless you are sure that it's clearly too good. This is a big pass, so is it too good? My own practice is to turn the cube unless I am sure that it is too good, so for me this is double and pass although it might be right to wait. One more thing, doubling now gives the opponent the chance to make a big blunder and take. I've certainly seen worse taken at this score, sometimes by me!

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[stiefnu]

Spoiler

At this point, after more than 24hrs, the vote is nicely tied at 4-4. So I'll leave it up for a few hours more. Anyone minded to change their vote, after those good thoughts by ah_clem and dorbel?

Steve

[close]

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

The doubling window here is 72-77.  It's a close cash (.015) and a big pass.




XGID=--abB-CCC-A-bC---b-f-b----:0:0:1:00:3:0:0:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:3 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X           O    |   | O     O          |
| X           O    |   | O     O          |
| X                |   | O                |
|                  |   | O                |
|                  |   | 6                |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|             X  X |   | X                |
| O           X  X |   | X     X  O       |
| O     X     X  X |   | X     X  O  O    |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 120  O: 153 X-O: 3-0/5
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
  Player Winning Chances:   81.16% (G:12.85% B:0.43%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 18.84% (G:1.51% B:0.04%)
Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances:   79.36% (G:26.47% B:1.49%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 20.64% (G:2.04% B:0.08%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.846, Double=+1.805

Cubeful Equities:
       No double:     +0.985 (-0.015)
       Double/Take:   +1.136 (+0.136)
       Double/Pass:   +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
  Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.978..+0.992)
  Confidence Double:    ± 0.018 (+1.118..+1.155)

  Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
  Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

  Duration: 6 minutes 46 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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