FFM19 Game 1 Move 12: Herd to play 55

[Julia_H]

This one might prove to be obvious, but I thought I'd ask...

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

I would have played 13/3(2).  The bar point is crying to be unstacked and the blot is not really a problem if hit - we're well ahead in the race and christopher's board is barren with a blot.  In favor of 9/4 is that it means he can't hit with the spare on the anchor, we slot a valuable point, and
he has to abandon the rear anchor to hit.  That's a fair amount of positives, but I think i still like unstacking better.

I'll plug it into XG and report the results.

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[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

XG four-ply analysis prefers 13/3(2) by the slimmest of margins, but in a full rollout the Herd's play comes out on top. 

It's a close one: .016 emg and within the margin of error for a 1296 trial rollout.



XGID=--b--cE-CA--cF---aada-----:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:5:10


    1. Rollout¹    13/3 9/4 8/3                 eq:+0.327
      Player:   55.53% (G:20.28% B:1.09%)
      Opponent: 44.47% (G:8.84% B:0.36%)
      Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.312..+0.342) - [91.2%]
      Duration: 28 minutes 43 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    13/3(2)                      eq:+0.311 (-0.016)
      Player:   54.93% (G:20.27% B:1.34%)
      Opponent: 45.07% (G:8.83% B:0.25%)
      Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.295..+0.327) - [8.5%]
      Duration: 27 minutes 19 seconds

    3. Rollout¹    13/8 13/3 9/4                eq:+0.298 (-0.029)
      Player:   55.44% (G:18.97% B:0.86%)
      Opponent: 44.56% (G:9.41% B:0.30%)
      Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.283..+0.313) - [0.3%]
      Duration: 24 minutes 01 second


¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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