Match 1, Game 2, Move 3, factotum

[blitzxz]

6-5?

Score:
Black(forum) 1, White 0, match to 5

Pips:
Black 143 White 155

GnuID:
Rs/BASjgc+IJIA:MAG3AAAACAAA

[ah_clem]

As I'm the first to reply, I'll hide it inside the spoiler tag.

Spoiler

The candidate moves would be

1) run the backman 24/13
2) safety the two forward blots and activate the runner  15/10 24/18
3) as 2, but slot the bar point, 15/10 13/7
4) hit loose twice 8/2* 6/1*
5) make builders 13/8 15/9

Running the backman was my first inclination.  It always is when I roll 65. But I don't think it's best here with two blots hanging around.  It seems passive.

Hitting twice is too bold.  If I held a second point in my board I'd think harder about it, but with a one point board facing a two point board I don't think getting into a hitting contest is right. Even with the slot-blot on the 5.

The builder play (13/8 15/9) looks weak against the split runners - too many shots.

I like the idea of making the 10.  It's probably not worth holding for long, but it provides a good temporary outpost.  So, which side of the board to play on?  I say activate the runner with 24/18.  The split backmen make me cautious about slotting my bar point.

So, 15/10 24/18. Now let's hope factorum doesn't read this and follow my advice.  (or if he does, let's hope that I'm way off base here (c: )

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[playBunny]

Spoiler

I'd run 24/13. Leaving the blot on our 10-point duplicated the 3sw needed to cover our 5-point and if we get to hit factotum's home side blot with a backrunner then we've used our roll up and can't protect our 5-point blot.

It was a close decision. I looked at 15/10 24/18 and that seemed good because it banked assets with an outer table block, but I didn't like how vulnerable the bar point blot would be.

Hitting options were 15/10 to make a block and then 8/2* to keep us off balance or 15/9 for maximum flexibility and 6/1*, which also unloaded the 6-point. I didn't care for them in the end as they seemed too prone to be a little girl (when good, they're good, when bad, they're horrid! ).

[close]

[diane]

Spoiler

24-18, 15-10 worked for me - the outer point is nice and could be useful later.  The blot on the 18 either stays there, or gets hit and has a chance at a return hit.  I could not see any value at all in 24-13

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[factotum]

24-13.   I think this is worth a gamble.  I still have 3s duplicated for my blot on the 15 pt, and if you hit the one on my 10 pt, I can hit back with 3s 4s and 5s.   I don't want a hitting contest here, but I think this is better than 15-10,  24-18.

[Zorba]

Spoiler

I see only two viable plays here: 24/18 15/10 and 24/13. Other plays leave too many shots (mostly because of our split backcheckers) for too little gain. The team has the stronger board for now, so factotum should not go for bold moves if there isn't any good reason for it. We're not threatening all that much, so there's no need for tempo play.

So, the six seems clear to me, 24/18. Then it's a question of which blot to safety: continue to the midpoint, or safety the 15pt blot and make the tenpoint as bonus. Duplication works for both plays: either ones or threes are duplicated with covering our fivepoint. However, leaving the blot on the team's barpoint is a double direct shot (1 and 6) with 24 shot numbers if I counted correctly, instead of a single 3 shot for 13 shot numbers. Then again, leaving the tenpoint blot adds indirect shot numbers for us: 5-4 and 6-2. So it's more like 24 vs. 17 shot numbers. Not all hits are of equal value to the team though...

Bottom line? I don't know, but I prefer the asset of the tenpoint, especially since factotum is still behind in the race, and therefore should not just try to run his backcheckers, but also block ours. But it could be that it's too many shots on factotum's last backman on our barpoint, it's not a happy sight.

[close]

[playBunny]

Rollout 1296 trials, 2-ply for 12 plies, 0-ply thereafter, 2-ply cube throughout

Given the error value of 0.010 and an equity difference of only 0.006, the top two moves are equivalent.

Spoiler

# .. Move .......... Equity . (Diff) ... Win ..... WinG .. WinBg -- Lose ... LoseG . LoseBg
1 .. 24/18 15/10 ... -0.242 ............ 47.8% ... 7.5% ... 0.5% -- 52.2% .. 16.8% ... 0.5%
2 .. 24/13 ......... -0.248 (-0.006) ... 47.1% ... 7.8% ... 0.4% -- 52.9% .. 17.5% ... 0.7%
3 .. 15/10 8/2* .... -0.272 (-0.029) ... 46.6% .. 12.1% ... 0.7% -- 53.4% .. 20.4% ... 1.4%
4 .. 15/10 13/7 .... -0.353 (-0.111) ... 44.8% .. 11.1% ... 0.6% -- 55.2% .. 21.2% ... 1.5%
5 .. 15/9 6/1* ..... -0.372 (-0.130) ... 44.5% .. 11.9% ... 0.7% -- 55.5% .. 23.4% ... 2.7%
Std Err ............. 0.010 ............. 0.1% ... 0.1% ... 0.1% --- 0.1% ... 0.2% ... 0.1%
.

        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 819538750 and quasi-random dice
        Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
        keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
        Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
        Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
        Different evaluations after 12 plies:
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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