Game 2, move 8, Forum 5-3 NEXT, roadkillbooks double?, 2-1 to play

[Zorba]

The TEAM (blue) rolled a 5-3, since running is very dangerous now and we can clear the 9pt 9/6 9/4 quite comfortably, I'll NEXT it, then it's again cube decision time for roadkillbooks (white):

[roadkillbooks]

Spoiler

NO DOUBLE, Again low volatiltiy on my move.  I probally have more chances of wishing i hadn't doubled "crashers", compared with times I wish I had "cashers" The time will come soon and it looks like serveral move may well be forced.

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[Zorba]

2-1 to play for roadkilllbooks (white), diagram at the top

650DAAbDbjMIAg:MAGlABAAAAAA

[roadkillbooks]

Spoiler

20/18, 15/14 Pretty clear.  The only subtlety is the one from 15/14> ITs better than 6/5 because only 5-5 will hit which is a joker anyway. so it takes away 6/5, dance as bad sequences

[close]

[diane]

Spoiler

20/18, 15/14 Pretty clear.  The only subtlety is the one from 15/14> ITs better than 6/5 because only 5-5 will hit which is a joker anyway. so it takes away 6/5, dance as bad sequences

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Spoiler

Again, almost a next

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[Zorba]

Cube decision 2-ply ROLLOUT:

Spoiler

It's still a big take, with almost 35% winning chances for us, and not many gammon losses. With volatility pretty low, it's better to wait.

Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube (No double):
   65,27  10,27   0,60 -  34,73   4,22   0,08 CL  +0,4037 CF  +0,7614
[  0,06   0,10   0,08 -   0,06   0,06   0,02 CL   0,0019 CF   0,0047]
Player FIBSBoard forum owns 2-cube (Double, take):
   65,49  10,68   0,80 -  34,51   4,22   0,06 CL  +1,0215 CF  +0,7110 (-0,0504)
[  0,07   0,12   0,09 -   0,07   0,06   0,00 CL   0,0045 CF   0,0055]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
3888 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 863038590 and quasi-random dice
Play:  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,12
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

No double, Take

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