Game 3, move 14: Forum 5-3

[Zorba]

roadkillbooks eschewed the hit last turn, playing 13/8 instead. Now it's the Forum to play 5-3.

jHNwBgPbWOAEAw:QYmuACAAAAAA

[diane]

Spoiler

This is not a great roll, just average.  I don't want to break that anchor, which seems the main thing we have besides a 4 pt board, so I want to try and keep both of those ...hence my choice of 13-8, 7-4

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[NIHILIST]

Spoiler

I think it's time to break our anchor. This is why we kept our 4 point board intact. He ducked one hit already for fear hed come out on the ass-end of a hitting contest and his position hasn't improved.

All we do by waiting is postpone the inevitable.......running.......by which time his board will likely be stronger. 20 -15, 7-4 for me.

BTW, this is one of the hardest decisions in bg, knowing when to abandon the best opposing board anchor. In this case all the elements look right, so lets do it now.

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Bob

[Zorba]

Spoiler

We might have hoped to keep our anchor a bit longer, but we have to leave it some time anyhow, and this is not such a bad opportunity. 20/15 remakes the 15pt,  but this time the idea is that it will serve as our furthest point back, improving our timing considerably. The blot left is not in great danger, as rkb has just two attackers ready and a weak two point board.

The other play, 13/8 7/4, leaves rkb two blots to shoot at and does much less for us when we get away with it. As Kit Woolsey might put it: what will you do for an encore? The best you could hope for probably, is to safety both blots. But it's unlikely that you'll be able to do anything constructive. Then after that, you're faced with the problem of when to break the anchor or the midpoint and time is running out, while rkb's board is likely to improve.

So, breaking the anchor in itself is a pretty decent play, and since the alternative leaves an extra blot for no apparent gain, it looks to me like 20/15 7/4 is the way to go.

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[KDP]

Spoiler

at some point we have to move our 2 back men up, this move gives us a chance to move one of them up and anchor up on the 15.  20/15 7/4 gets my vote.

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[Zorba]

KDP, could you next time please put your comments under a spoiler button (I changed it already in the above message)?

You can create a spoiler button with the "radio-active" button (the black and yellow triangles in a circle) above all the smileys. Type your text between the two tags it creates. You can see if it works with the preview button. Thanks!

[lewscannon]

Spoiler

For all the reasons stated above, probably a good time to make a run for it.

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[KDP]

yea well i asked you this morning in a tell how to do it and you pointedly ignored me.

[Zorba]

Thanks KDP, remind me to help you again in the future with anything.

[stog]

looks like a take or a next even

[Zorba]

GnuBG 02-ply rollout:

Spoiler

13/8 wins a few more gammons, but not enough to overcome the almost 3% less wins.

    1. Rollout          20/15 7/4                    Eq.:  +0,0570
        52,48  12,88   0,19 -  47,52  13,47   1,59 CL  +0,1272 CF  +0,0570
      [  0,11   0,10   0,02 -   0,11   0,12   0,11 CL   0,0031 CF   0,0035]
    2. Rollout          13/8 7/4                     Eq.:  +0,0181 ( -0,0389)
        49,71  14,08   0,16 -  50,29  12,52   1,84 CL  +0,0998 CF  +0,0181
      [  0,12   0,12   0,02 -   0,12   0,16   0,14 CL   0,0035 CF   0,0040]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        5184 and 3888 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 861171985 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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