Game 4, move 5 : Forum Cube?

[diane]

I better make sure the option is given to all at this point in the game  

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Unless we roll a 5 or a 64, we're utg again and face a closeout/gammon.
If we get one of those lucky rolls to hit or escape, the position looks about even.

There are  15 ways to roll a 5 plus two ways to roll 64 - that gives 17/36 or  a less than 50% chance that we establish an even position.  No double.

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[roadkillbooks]

next?

[diane]

Looks decided, doesnt it, I will give it a bit longer, mostly cos I am too tired to do it just now    Later this evening, I promise 

[ah_clem]

Would any of the folks voting to double care to give a reason why?

[diane]

Mostly cos I like a saunter on the wild side 

Spoiler

I see a potential threat in an otherwise balanced situation, if the threat turns into reality, then we have an edge.  Same as always, if we hit he wont take it, if we don't we have no threat.....it is a now opportunity....what no numbers at all....  

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[ah_clem]

Mostly cos I like a saunter on the wild side 

rollout

Spoiler

Well, cubing may be a "walk on the wild side", but the colored girls are not going to go "doot da-doot doot doot da-doot" for this one.  It's a massive error:



Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity  -0.001 (Money:  +0.020)

Cubeful equities:
1. No double            +0.086
2. Double, pass         +1.000  ( +0.914)
3. Double, take         -0.400  ( -0.486)
Proper cube action: No double, take (34.7%)
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
  0.526 0.065 0.005 - 0.474 0.099 0.003 CL  -0.001 CF  +0.086
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.013]
Player rkb owns 2-cube:
  0.526 0.077 0.008 - 0.474 0.126 0.011 CL  +0.153 CF  -0.400
[0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.004 0.002 CL   0.014 CF   0.019]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 865699843 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

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