Game 2 Move 4 Forum Double?

[ah_clem]

Again, I'm recusing myself from the cube decision.  

[ah_clem]

Ok, just because I've recused myself doesn't mean that nobody's allowed to say anything.  We've got a split decision - who wants to make a case for their choice?

This might be like playing a chouette with the Marx brothers, but does everybody have to channel Harpo?

[stog]

Spoiler

beep beep!we got a chequer on the bar and a blot, and unless we have a very strong board, position & lead, tis not the time for shipping cubes methinks. i can only assume blitzxz's relatives have been voting!!

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[dorbel]

unless we have a very strong board, position & lead, tis not the time for shipping cubes methinks.

Erm, actually stog we do have a 15 pip lead (equivalent to nearly two full rolls), a stronger board and a better position. Sixes make our bar, most fives and fours hit loose and even our worst non-dancing numbers, probably 2-1 and 3-1, are playable. If we dance, we won't be facing a recube for a good while yet. I've changed my vote. It's reasonable to wait, but I think this is probably a low end double for us.

[stog]

i stand corrected

[diane]

And I was right first time 

Spoiler

For the reasons dorbel has stated better than me, we have a lead, a better board and great potential. This is one where we can sneak a cube that will be taken, wait one or two rolls - and he wont touch it with a barge pole...

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[stog]

Spoiler

we is the brothers marx beep beep

[close]

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

We got this one right. 

The way I look at it (using my best post-hoc 20-20 hindsight) is that we have an advantage in the position (better board - he's got nothing in that dept), race (15 pips and on roll) and threats (prime/closeout).  When you have an advantage in two out of three, it's usually a double.  Here we have all three.  Double. 

Of course, if we knew he'd pass, it would have been an easier decision.  (c:




Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity  +0.501 (Money:  +0.472)

Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take         +0.861
2. Double, pass         +1.000  ( +0.139)
3. No double            +0.714  ( -0.147)
Proper cube action: Double, take
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
  0.641 0.282 0.012 - 0.359 0.097 0.007 CL  +0.501 CF  +0.714
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.013]
Player blitzxz owns 2-cube:
  0.643 0.274 0.009 - 0.357 0.102 0.014 CL  +1.139 CF  +0.861
[0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.002 CL   0.016 CF   0.019]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 845650837 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

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