Game 1, move 16: Herd to move 3-2

[diane]

d9sCADBu7w4AAA:QQmtAAAAAAAA

[PersianLord]

Spoiler

I don't see any value in 6-3/5-3. If we roll a 6-5 next turn, we will be exposed to a double shot; not a desirable position to be in. I voted 5-off, as I tend to clear my 5-pt in such situations.

[close]

[ah_clem]

 foo

[ah_clem]

foo

Dont strip both 5 & 6 points. Clear from the rear.  6/3 2/off.  Trice's wave.

[Zorba]

Spoiler

We want to take checkers off (to increase winning chances after getting hit and to win more gammons) and we want to clear points from the back, for safety purposes. This naturally leads to the move 6/3 2/off, stripping the sixpoint so we are ready to clear it with a good roll, and taking a checker off.

Compared to 5/off, this is much safer as we like to have spare fives to play, while waiting to clear the sixpoint, as fives don't play from the sixpoint.

[close]

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

Not much to add that hasn't been said before.  Zorba nailed it.


    1. Rollout          6/3 2/off                    Eq.:  +1.077
       0.949 0.145 0.005 - 0.051 0.000 0.000 CL  +1.101 CF  +1.077
      [0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.003]

    2. Rollout          6/3 4/2                      Eq.:  +1.016 ( -0.061)
       0.941 0.117 0.003 - 0.059 0.000 0.000 CL  +1.044 CF  +1.016
      [0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.003]

    3. Rollout          5/off                        Eq.:  +1.010 ( -0.067)
       0.927 0.138 0.005 - 0.073 0.000 0.000 CL  +1.047 CF  +1.010
      [0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.003]

    4. Rollout          6/3 5/3                      Eq.:  +0.966 ( -0.111)
       0.926 0.107 0.003 - 0.074 0.000 0.000 CL  +1.002 CF  +0.966
      [0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.003]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 893898012 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[close]