Game 4, move 9: Herd 6-5

[diane]

There were a couple of obvious moves, so I moved along - now a much trickier herd move...

move 8 Herd, 6-1, 13/6
move 9 skater 5-1, 13/7

Position ID: NtuBAQbMPoMBBg
Match ID: UYm6ACAAGAAA

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

I don't think volunteering a shot here is the right idea.  But we'll probably be leaving a shot soon anyway, so holding the anchor is valuable.  I don't like playing behind his anchor, but it seems like the best move is to play two off the eight point.  At least we're slotting the next good homeboard point.

[close]

[ah_clem]

gnubg results

Spoiler

2-ply analysis agrees with the Herd.    Bringing down two form the gbar is not too far behind.  Everything else is a whopper.  I'll roll out the top two plays.

UPDATE - rollout has the two plays even closer, but the Herd's decision is sill on top.



   1. Cubeful 2-ply    8/3 8/2                      Eq.:  -0.198
      0.451 0.100 0.002 - 0.549 0.109 0.002
   2. Cubeful 2-ply    13/8 13/7                    Eq.:  -0.226 ( -0.028)
      0.422 0.074 0.001 - 0.578 0.075 0.001
   3. Cubeful 2-ply    13/2                         Eq.:  -0.292 ( -0.094)
      0.396 0.087 0.002 - 0.604 0.090 0.002
   4. Cubeful 2-ply    8/2 6/1                      Eq.:  -0.310 ( -0.112)
      0.399 0.083 0.001 - 0.601 0.117 0.002
   5. Cubeful 2-ply    21/15 6/1                    Eq.:  -0.429 ( -0.230)
      0.410 0.124 0.005 - 0.590 0.270 0.008
   6. Cubeful 2-ply    13/7 6/1                     Eq.:  -0.457 ( -0.259)
      0.346 0.078 0.001 - 0.654 0.161 0.005
   7. Cubeful 2-ply    21/16 21/15                  Eq.:  -0.505 ( -0.307)
      0.376 0.071 0.003 - 0.624 0.280 0.007
   8. Cubeful 2-ply    21/10                        Eq.:  -0.508 ( -0.310)
      0.371 0.092 0.003 - 0.629 0.271 0.008
       2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

    1. Rollout          8/3 8/2                      Eq.:  -0.195
       0.449 0.146 0.006 - 0.551 0.101 0.009 CL  -0.195 CF  -0.195
      [0.002 0.005 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.004 CF   0.004]

    2. Rollout          13/8 13/7                    Eq.:  -0.207 ( -0.012)
       0.427 0.114 0.005 - 0.573 0.066 0.007 CL  -0.207 CF  -0.207
      [0.002 0.005 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.004]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 880198069 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

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