Game 4, move 7 : Herd 3-2

[diane]

move?

[KDP]

Spoiler

i think this is another case of the simplest solution being the best.  13-8

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Prepare to clear the midpoint with 13/8.  65 or doubles will then allow us to clear it safely, and we should have several rolls in which to get "lucky".

Covering the blot on then three is probably not far behind equity wise, but I think playing off the midpoint should be best.

[close]

[ah_clem]

Rollout

Spoiler

The Herd's move comes out on top in 3-ply analysis and XGR++, but a full rollout favors 8/6 4/1, although not by much.

Just like last time, XG likes to  slot the lower points.



XGID=--AABbCBC---bC----accbb---:0:0:1:32:3:1:0:5:3

X:Herd   O:Linus
Score is X:3 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X              O |   | O  O  O  O       |
| X                |   | O  O  O  O       |
| X                |   | O  O             |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|             X    |   | X                |
| O           X  X |   | X  O  X          |
| O           X  X |   | X  O  X  X  X    |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 108  O: 120 X-O: 3-1/5
Cube: 1
X to play 32

    1. Rollout¹    8/6 4/1                      eq:+0.522
      Player:   68.76% (G:3.41% B:0.21%)
      Opponent: 31.24% (G:1.33% B:0.04%)
      Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.514..+0.530) - [97.5%]
      Duration: 9 minutes 58 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    13/8                         eq:+0.511 (-0.011)
      Player:   68.38% (G:1.67% B:0.07%)
      Opponent: 31.62% (G:0.91% B:0.01%)
      Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.503..+0.518) - [2.4%]
      Duration: 9 minutes 19 seconds

    3. Rollout¹    6/1                          eq:+0.503 (-0.019)
      Player:   68.08% (G:3.74% B:0.23%)
      Opponent: 31.92% (G:1.48% B:0.03%)
      Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.494..+0.512) - [0.1%]
      Duration: 9 minutes 25 seconds

    4. Rollout¹    8/3                          eq:+0.492 (-0.030)
      Player:   67.84% (G:1.66% B:0.04%)
      Opponent: 32.16% (G:1.04% B:0.03%)
      Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.485..+0.500) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 8 minutes 56 seconds

    5. XG Roller++ 4/1 3/1                      eq:+0.486 (-0.036)
      Player:   66.84% (G:2.71% B:0.04%)
      Opponent: 33.16% (G:1.55% B:0.02%)


¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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