Game 4, move 11 : Herd 4-3

[diane]

move?

[KDP]

Spoiler

if we had correctly played the double ones we could have just connected our last 2 checkers and prepared for the bear off but thats water under the bridge now. sigh. for this roll  7-4 7-3. we cannot afford to leave a shot by moving off the 12, and shuffling checkers around past his 2 guys is a blunder.  clearing the 7 is something we will have to do at some point so it might as well be now.

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[NIHILIST]

Spoiler

Spoken like a true results player. If we'd only rolled 5-5 we could clear our 12 point and cruise home, but that's water under the bridge too. Instead of chopping up our landing spots out of fear of leaving a 6 number shot, why not come off the 12 point now; 12-8, 6-3.

[close]

Bob

[NIHILIST]

Spoiler

 

shuffling checkers around past his 2 guys is a blunder

Why is it a blunder ? With the roll we're up 14 pips, there's a case to be made for keeping the outer board landing spots intact and just quietly winning the race, so 6-2, 4-1 wouldn't be the worst play available to us.

[close]

Bob

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

I guess I messed the vote - too busy racing sailboats on this beautiful spring day to hang around on the internet - but I would have cleared the 12 point.   1/6 chance to be hit (~18%) and almost 100% to win the race when we're not hit.

Don't volunteer a direct shot in a holding game, but those indirect shots are sometimes worth volunteering.

Looking forward to rolling out the recent moves... soon come, mon.

[close]

[ah_clem]

XGR++

Spoiler

This one is not close.  Don't volunteer a shot in a holding game, even if it's an indirect shot.

Congrats to the Herd for choosing the best play again.



XGID=-BB-BbCBB---B-----abcbbba-:0:0:1:43:3:1:0:5:3

X:Herd   O:Linus
Score is X:3 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|                O |   | O  O  O  O  O  O |
|                  |   | O  O  O  O  O    |
|                  |   |    O             |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   | X                |
| X           X  X |   | X  O  X     X  X |
| X           X  X |   | X  O  X     X  X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 86  O: 93 X-O: 3-1/5
Cube: 1
X to play 43

    1. XG Roller++ 7/4 7/3                      eq:+0.453
      Player:   65.81% (G:1.82% B:0.02%)
      Opponent: 34.19% (G:1.49% B:0.02%)

    2. XG Roller++ 12/8 6/3                     eq:+0.295 (-0.158)
      Player:   60.00% (G:2.92% B:0.11%)
      Opponent: 40.00% (G:4.14% B:0.06%)

    3. XG Roller++ 6/2 4/1                      eq:+0.269 (-0.183)
      Player:   59.23% (G:0.80% B:0.01%)
      Opponent: 40.77% (G:1.39% B:0.02%)

    4. XG Roller++ 12/8 4/1                     eq:+0.200 (-0.253)
      Player:   56.73% (G:1.94% B:0.06%)
      Opponent: 43.27% (G:3.76% B:0.04%)

    5. 1-ply       12/9 12/8                    eq:-0.002 (-0.455)
      Player:   53.30% (G:2.38% B:0.01%)
      Opponent: 46.70% (G:4.43% B:0.02%)


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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