Fibsboard Forum Match 18 Game 2 Move 4 Herd to move

[stiefnu]

juanz has run out with a back chequer and the Herd now has 54 to play. There are a lot of options. Let me know if you want other choices.

5-pt match, score juanz 0-1 Herd
Pipcount: juanz 151, Herd 160

Steve

[AllanM]

Steve, just a couple of small errors in your options

13-9* 13-4 should be 13-9*, 9-4

and

13-8, 13-19 should be 13-9*, 13-8

[stiefnu]

just a couple of small errors in your options

Sorry folks, careless of me. I have reset the votes to zero.

Steve

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

There are two viable moves: hit twice, or bring down two checkers hitting once in the process.

I like the  blitz.  Hitting two gives us two on the roof with ten checkers in the zone.  Slotting the ace isn't very desirable, but in a blitz all points are equal. We will likely have a cube in a roll or two if things go our way.

13/9* 6/1*

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[KDP]

Spoiler

i would play 13-8 13-9*.  i dont think hitting 2 is the way to go here for several reasons.  we still have our 2 back men on the 24 and really don't want a 3rd checker back, our opponent has a stronger board and there aren't that many cover numbers for the hit on his ace especially without breaking either the 8 or the 7.  bringing the checker down to the 9 not only hits but also gives us a builder for one of the inner board pts. 

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[stiefnu]

This has been up for over a day now and there is a small majority for the double hit, so I am going to go with that.

juanz re-entered with 32. I don't think we're into doubling territory quite yet but will see where we are after the next roll.

Steve

[ah_clem]

XGR++

Spoiler

The double hit is a blunder. It was the only blunder the herd made in the entire match.

Post-hoc, I can see that bringing down two gives us 11 checkers in the zone while hitting two mis-positions a checker on the ace while depriving us of a builder.  Since we have no board yet, the blitz is premature even with ten in the zone.

Hitting two does win slightly more gammons, but not enough to justify the additional losses and gammon losses.



XGID=-a----EBBa--eD---b-d--b-B-:0:0:1:54:1:0:0:5:3

X:Herd   O:juanz
Score is X:1 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X           O    |   | O        O     X |
| X           O    |   | O        O     X |
| X                |   | O                |
| X                |   | O                |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
| O                |   | X                |
| O                |   | X                |
| O                |   | X                |
| O           X  X |   | X                |
| O        O  X  X |   | X              O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 160  O: 151 X-O: 1-0/5
Cube: 1
X to play 54

    1. XG Roller++ 13/8 13/9*                   eq:+0.156
      Player:   52.23% (G:16.45% B:0.75%)
      Opponent: 47.77% (G:13.66% B:0.75%)

    2. XG Roller++ 13/9* 6/1*                   eq:+0.052 (-0.105)
      Player:   49.95% (G:16.83% B:0.45%)
      Opponent: 50.05% (G:15.33% B:0.93%)




eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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