Game 6, move 14 : roadkill books 6-2, Forum 4-2

[diane]

rkb rolled 6-2 and bore a checker in and off - anything else seemed a mistake, so I nexted that one.

Forum, Blue, to move 4-2 - do you think that is enough to choose from 

7t0GAAC2bUEEGA:8AmxACAAIAAA

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

I doubt this move matters much as long as we don't destroy our prime.

I still like the idea of making the 9.  Leaving checkers 6 and 1  points away gives slightly better chances (24/26) than leaving them 3 and 4 points away (17/36).

Unless I screwed up the shot count again, which is likely.

16/14 13/9


BTW, I clicked the wrong choice and can't change.  Help!

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[stog]

done

[dorbel]

Spoiler

16/12, 13/11 also leaves 24 numbers to make the 6 prime, not 17. However, we may be hitting with a 4, so best to diversify and leave sixes and ones to complete the prime. However, it doesn't matter much what we do as we have a five prime now and that is usually enough to nail down a win if we can hit. Actually, I would play 8/2, usually right to slot the next point in the board.

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[NIHILIST]

Spoiler

If he had spares on his 6 and/or 5 points, I'd likely slot the 2 point. However, the disaster roll of 6-5 leaves him with 2 blots, one of which requires a duplicated 5 to hit. I favor 16-14, 13-9, which leaves us with unduplicated prime-makers and no blots in our board.

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Bob

[socksey]

Spoiler

I like 8/6, 16/12, which is not a choice.  In the event we get a shot and hit, a 2/6 cannot hit us.  Moving the 16/12 will give us more to work on a block on our 8 pt.

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That's what I would do, but it's probably all wrong according to the experts!   

socksey



The first step in the art of friendship is to be a friend; then making friends takes care of itself.......  from The Art of Being by Wilfred A. Peterson

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

If he had spares on his 6 and/or 5 points, I'd likely slot the 2 point. However, the disaster roll of 6-5 leaves him with 2 blots, one of which requires a duplicated 5 to hit. I favor 16-14, 13-9, which leaves us with unduplicated prime-makers and no blots in our board.

He's got two bad rolls - 6-5 and 5-4.  Either can be hit with a 4, the second can also hit with a 5.  So duplication would imply that we want to place our builders  on points other than 4 or 5 points away from the 8 point. 

We have three choices of where to place our builders: 6 and 1 away, 5 and 2 away, 4 and 3  away.  Agree with Bob that the 6 and 1 away should be better.

I don't like slotting the 2 here.  One reason is that we'd like him to enter and stay stuck. The other is that we give a return hit - he's still got a good board, and we don't need the timing.

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[diane]

Spoiler

Ok - the 5-4 bad roll persuades me towards 6 and 1 away, rather than my current choice of 4 and 3...

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

I like 8/6, 16/12, which is not a choice.  In the event we get a shot and hit, a 2/6 cannot hit us.  

If we get a shot, we'll have a second number to play and we can safety the blot on the 8 should we choose to.  Granted, if the second number is a 6, we can't safety the blot by moving it.  But if we play 16/14 11/9 now we can use the 6 to make a prime.  I suppose that's another small reason to play 16/14 11/9.

(or we might want to run the other backman with a 6 - but I'll wait to jump off that bridge until we come to it.)

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[dorbel]

Spoiler

Yes slotting the 2pt is probably wrong I agree and I have changed to 16/14, 13/9. Note that White has five blot numbers not 4, 4-4 blots as well.

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[ah_clem]

We seem to have arrived at a consensus. Next?

[diane]

Yeah, but I was in bed     

[ah_clem]

bot results

Spoiler

As expected, lots of reasonable moves here.  Our move comes out on top in the rollout, but not by much.  Slotting the 2 is tops in evaluation.  Even some blockade destroying moves aren't that bad e.g. 16/12 7/5   is only a .01 error.



Analysis:
1. Cubeful 2-ply    8/2                          Eq.:  -0.674
       0.215 0.000 0.000 - 0.785 0.402 0.039
       
    2. Cubeful 2-ply    13/9 8/6                     Eq.:  -0.680 ( -0.006)
       0.212 0.000 0.000 - 0.788 0.393 0.039
       
    3. Cubeful 2-ply    13/9 7/5                     Eq.:  -0.680 ( -0.006)
       0.212 0.000 0.000 - 0.788 0.399 0.039
       
    4. Cubeful 2-ply    16/14 13/9                   Eq.:  -0.681 ( -0.006)
       0.214 0.000 0.000 - 0.786 0.395 0.041
       
    5. Cubeful 2-ply    13/7                         Eq.:  -0.681 ( -0.006)
       0.212 0.000 0.000 - 0.788 0.397 0.039
       
    6. Cubeful 2-ply    13/11 8/4                    Eq.:  -0.683 ( -0.009)
       0.210 0.000 0.000 - 0.790 0.399 0.038
       
    7. Cubeful 2-ply    16/10                        Eq.:  -0.684 ( -0.010)
       0.211 0.000 0.000 - 0.789 0.393 0.040
       
    8. Cubeful 2-ply    16/12 13/11                  Eq.:  -0.685 ( -0.010)
       0.210 0.000 0.000 - 0.790 0.388 0.039
       
    9. Cubeful 2-ply    13/11 7/3                    Eq.:  -0.685 ( -0.010)
       0.210 0.000 0.000 - 0.790 0.404 0.038
       
   10. Cubeful 2-ply    16/14 8/4                    Eq.:  -0.688 ( -0.013)
       0.210 0.000 0.000 - 0.790 0.399 0.040
       
   11. Cubeful 2-ply    13/9 4/2                     Eq.:  -0.689 ( -0.014)
       0.209 0.000 0.000 - 0.791 0.407 0.039
       
   12. Cubeful 2-ply    16/12 7/5                    Eq.:  -0.689 ( -0.014)
       0.209 0.000 0.000 - 0.791 0.395 0.040
       
   13. Cubeful 2-ply    16/12 8/6                    Eq.:  -0.689 ( -0.015)
       0.209 0.000 0.000 - 0.791 0.391 0.040
       
   14. Cubeful 2-ply    8/4 7/5                      Eq.:  -0.690 ( -0.015)
       0.207 0.000 0.000 - 0.793 0.401 0.039
       
   15. Cubeful 2-ply    8/6 7/3                      Eq.:  -0.691 ( -0.016)
       0.206 0.000 0.000 - 0.794 0.400 0.038
       
   16. Cubeful 2-ply    7/1                          Eq.:  -0.694 ( -0.019)
       0.207 0.000 0.000 - 0.793 0.414 0.040
       


    1. Rollout          16/14 13/9                   Eq.:  -0.685
       0.181 0.000 0.000 - 0.819 0.501 0.008 CL  -0.685 CF  -0.685
      [0.002 0.000 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.003 CF   0.003]

    2. Rollout          16/10                        Eq.:  -0.686 ( -0.001)
       0.179 0.000 0.000 - 0.821 0.502 0.007 CL  -0.686 CF  -0.686
      [0.002 0.000 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.004]


    3. Rollout          13/7                         Eq.:  -0.691 ( -0.006)
       0.177 0.000 0.000 - 0.823 0.515 0.007 CL  -0.691 CF  -0.691
      [0.002 0.000 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.003 CF   0.003]

    4. Rollout          16/12 13/11                  Eq.:  -0.692 ( -0.007)
       0.177 0.000 0.000 - 0.823 0.497 0.007 CL  -0.692 CF  -0.692
      [0.002 0.000 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.004]


    5. Rollout          13/9 8/6                     Eq.:  -0.696 ( -0.011)
       0.176 0.000 0.000 - 0.824 0.514 0.008 CL  -0.696 CF  -0.696
      [0.002 0.000 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.003 CF   0.003]


    6. Rollout          16/12 7/5                    Eq.:  -0.696 ( -0.011)
       0.176 0.000 0.000 - 0.824 0.510 0.008 CL  -0.696 CF  -0.696
      [0.002 0.000 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.004]


    7. Rollout          16/14 8/4                    Eq.:  -0.696 ( -0.012)
       0.175 0.000 0.000 - 0.825 0.516 0.007 CL  -0.696 CF  -0.696
      [0.002 0.000 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.004]

    8. Rollout          13/11 8/4                    Eq.:  -0.697 ( -0.012)
       0.175 0.000 0.000 - 0.825 0.519 0.007 CL  -0.697 CF  -0.697
      [0.002 0.000 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.003 CF   0.003]

    9. Rollout          8/2                          Eq.:  -0.698 ( -0.013)
       0.174 0.000 0.000 - 0.826 0.523 0.007 CL  -0.698 CF  -0.698
      [0.002 0.000 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.004]

   10. Rollout          16/12 8/6                    Eq.:  -0.698 ( -0.013)
       0.174 0.000 0.000 - 0.826 0.506 0.007 CL  -0.698 CF  -0.698
      [0.002 0.000 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.003 CF   0.003]

   11. Rollout          13/9 7/5                     Eq.:  -0.703 ( -0.018)
       0.173 0.000 0.000 - 0.827 0.520 0.008 CL  -0.703 CF  -0.703
      [0.002 0.000 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.004]

   12. Rollout          8/4 7/5                      Eq.:  -0.704 ( -0.020)
       0.172 0.000 0.000 - 0.828 0.523 0.008 CL  -0.704 CF  -0.704
      [0.002 0.000 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.004]

   13. Rollout          13/11 7/3                    Eq.:  -0.707 ( -0.022)
       0.171 0.000 0.000 - 0.829 0.524 0.008 CL  -0.707 CF  -0.707
      [0.002 0.000 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.004]

   14. Rollout          8/6 7/3                      Eq.:  -0.708 ( -0.023)
       0.170 0.000 0.000 - 0.830 0.523 0.008 CL  -0.708 CF  -0.708
      [0.002 0.000 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.004]

   15. Rollout          13/9 4/2                     Eq.:  -0.708 ( -0.024)
       0.171 0.000 0.000 - 0.829 0.523 0.009 CL  -0.708 CF  -0.708
      [0.002 0.000 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.004]

   16. Rollout          7/1                          Eq.:  -0.720 ( -0.036)
       0.166 0.000 0.000 - 0.834 0.537 0.009 CL  -0.720 CF  -0.720
      [0.002 0.000 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.004]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 869913531 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

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