Game 1, move 6: herd cube decision

[diane]

Gaspar messaged me to say he will cube, so Herd has a decsion to make. He is out of contact for a while, so take your time  

Position ID: 2J3gASSYt4kHAA
Match ID: MBmgAAAAAAAA

[ah_clem]

Just back form Montana and catching up...

He's ahead by 23 pips & on roll, has a better position with his broken 4-prime and the fact that he's escaped his runners while we still have two back, and he's threatening to hit one of our blots.  Position, race, and threats:  3 for 3 is a pass.  I don't think it's too good here, but it might be. I'll start a rollout. 

BTW, I think gaspar missed a cube last turn - I wasn't sure whether it was take or pass, so Kit's Law says it must be a double.  I'll roll that one out too.

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

According to gun 0-ply, it's a massive pass, but only a marginal double - it's almost too good.



Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
  0.756 0.162 0.005 - 0.244 0.039 0.001 CL  +0.645 CF  +0.981
[0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.008]
Player The Herd owns 2-cube:
  0.767 0.162 0.004 - 0.233 0.035 0.002 CL  +1.414 CF  +1.245
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL   0.009 CF   0.012]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 878686117 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]


Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass         +1.000
2. Double, take         +1.245  ( +0.245)
3. No double            +0.981  ( -0.019)
Proper cube action: Double, pass

[close]