Game 1, move 6: Herd cube decision

[diane]

Are we there yet?

[KDP]

no

[Julia_H]

Spoiler

Easy one for Woolsey's Law - I'm sure I'd take like a shot in Linus's shoes, therefore it probably isn't a double. As it happens I'm not sure we're even a favourite.

Holding games tend to evolve as either someone leaving a shot and being hit (before or after the boards crunch), or rolling a big enough double to shift their back point forwards clear of danger and going on to win the race. In both those cases, keeping access to the cube until the right moment is important - in the race, we can cash from a decent lead; given a shot, we can turn the screw with threats of closing out a man while there's still others in the outfield, or running for home while he comes back in.

In this position we don't have the racing lead, the shot has yet to emerge, and we don't have a good board. We do have a single white man back deep, but he can step up to make our life difficult - and with our back two pinned back on his bar, large numbers from us will end up dumping men, killing our hopes of making 5 or 4 and wasting pips in the race too.

[close]

[ah_clem]

Is there a market loser? Anywhere?  Bueler?

I didn't think so.  Roll.

[ah_clem]

XGR++

Spoiler

Somehow I doubt that we'd get Linus to drop this one, so cubing would be a massive blunder.  We're not even the favorite to win.





XGID=-aBC--BCB---cA----Bbbbcb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X              X |   | O  O  O  O  O    |
|                X |   | O  O  O  O  O    |
|                  |   |          O       |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
| O              X |   |          X       |
| O           X  X |   | X        X  X    |
| O           X  X |   | X        X  X  O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 111  O: 106 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in XG Roller++
Player Winning Chances:   48.88% (G:5.59% B:0.08%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 51.12% (G:10.55% B:0.25%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=-0.070, Double=-0.163

Cubeful Equities:
       No double:     -0.043
       Double/Take:   -0.490 (-0.447)
       Double/Pass:   +1.000 (+1.043)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 23.1%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

[close]

[ah_clem]

XGR++

Spoiler

Not even a favorite here.



XGID=-aBC--BCB---cA----Bbbbcb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X              X |   | O  O  O  O  O    |
|                X |   | O  O  O  O  O    |
|                  |   |          O       |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
| O              X |   |          X       |
| O           X  X |   | X        X  X    |
| O           X  X |   | X        X  X  O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 111  O: 106 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in XG Roller++
Player Winning Chances:   48.88% (G:5.59% B:0.08%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 51.12% (G:10.55% B:0.25%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=-0.070, Double=-0.163

Cubeful Equities:
       No double:     -0.043
       Double/Take:   -0.490 (-0.447)
       Double/Pass:   +1.000 (+1.043)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 23.1%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

[close]