Game 2, Move 2: Herd 2-1

[diane]

Ok...next post is from back home...

[ah_clem]

Ok...next post is from back home...

I'm still on the road, but I'll be glad to run an XG analysis on game 1 when I get back next Monday if you post the .sgf file.

Spoiler

The six is crying out to be unstacked, and the best place available for its checkers is the four, so that's how I'll play the 2.  Then step up to the 21 with the ace - if we're going to slot an anchor, might as well slot a good one.  The 3 point is  a POS.

[close]

[ah_clem]

gnubg 2-ply analysis of the match so far (game 1 and the opening rolls of this match.  Linus and the Herd can be proud of the level of play.

Spoiler

                                      Linus                Herd               
Chequer Play Statistics:
Total moves                            18                   17                 
Unforced moves                         17                   16                 
Unmarked moves                         18                   17                 
Moves marked doubtful                   0                    0                 
Moves marked bad                        0                    0                 
Moves marked very bad                   0                    0                 
Error total EMG (MWC)                      -0.014 ( -0.108%)      -0.010 ( -0.080%)
Error rate mEMG (MWC)                      -0.8   ( -0.006%)      -0.6   ( -0.005%)
Chequerplay rating                    Supernatural         Supernatural       

Luck Statistics:
Rolls marked very lucky                 1                    2                 
Rolls marked lucky                      0                    0                 
Rolls unmarked                         17                   15                 
Rolls marked unlucky                    0                    0                 
Rolls marked very unlucky               0                    0                 
Luck total EMG (MWC)                       +0.605 ( +4.551%)      +1.240 ( +9.549%)
Luck rate mEMG (MWC)                      +33.6   ( +0.253%)     +73.0   ( +0.562%)
Luck rating                           Good dice, man!      Go to Las Vegas     

Cube Statistics:
Total cube decisions                   18                   17                 
Close or actual cube decisions          4                    3                 
Doubles                                 0                    1                 
Takes                                   0                    0                 
Passes                                  1                    0                 
Missed doubles below CP (EMG (MWC))     2 (-0.096 ( -0.741%))   0                 
Missed doubles above CP (EMG (MWC))     0                    0                 
Wrong doubles below DP (EMG (MWC))      0                    0                 
Wrong doubles above TG (EMG (MWC))      0                    0                 
Wrong takes (EMG (MWC))                 0                    0                 
Wrong passes (EMG (MWC))                0                    0                 
Error total EMG (MWC)                      -0.096 ( -0.741%)      -0.000 ( -0.000%)
Error rate mEMG (MWC)                     -23.9   ( -0.185%)      -0.0   ( -0.000%)
Cube decision rating                  Casual player        Supernatural       

Overall Statistics:
Error total EMG (MWC)                      -0.110 ( -0.850%)      -0.010 ( -0.080%)
Error rate mEMG (MWC)                      -5.2   ( -0.040%)      -0.5   ( -0.004%)
Snowie error rate                          -3.1   ( +0.000%)      -0.3   ( +0.000%)
Overall rating                        Expert               Supernatural       
Actual result                           -7.74%               +7.74%           
Luck adjusted result                    -2.74%               +2.74%           
Luck based FIBS rating diff.           -42.67                                 
Error based abs. FIBS rating          2020.4               2041.0             
Chequerplay errors rating loss          11.5                  9.0             
Cube errors rating loss                 18.2                  0.0             

[close]

[Julia_H]

Spoiler

22/21 6/4 for me too. The 3-point anchor isn't that great - doesn't threaten the outboard too much, and not much more safety from attack than the ace. The White position is stiff and something's going to give soon, so we should be playing for maximum contact and maximum gain when we hit a shot. (If we can't hit a shot, well, we're sunk anyway)

[close]

[KDP]

Spoiler

  one of the first "rules" of bg i learned is that once your opponent has made an advanced anchor its important for us to do the same.  no the 3 pt isnt great, but it is better than just sitting back on the ace.  11-10 for the 1,  he still needs to break his anchor for us to hit. 

[close]

[ah_clem]

It's tied 4-4, so I've taken the liberty of extending the voting for 12 hours.  Has anyone been swayed to change their vote?

[ah_clem]

gnu's assessment

Spoiler

The Herd's choice  comes out on top in 2-ply analysis.  The second place vote getter is 8th and a .09 error.

0-ply Rollout is more kind to 22/21 6/4, but still pegs it as a .06 error.  Well done, Herd.

Both  plays win about the same number of games and gammons, but the Herd's choice loses far fewer gammons.



Position ID: 4HPwAQPg88gAMg
Match ID: cAmlAAAACAAE

    1. Rollout          24/22 11/10                  Eq.:  -0.366
       0.406 0.093 0.008 - 0.594 0.141 0.009 CL  -0.253 CF  -0.366
      [0.002 0.002 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.014]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 679344901 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
    2. Rollout          22/21 6/4                    Eq.:  -0.430 ( -0.063)
       0.400 0.098 0.011 - 0.600 0.176 0.014 CL  -0.316 CF  -0.430
      [0.002 0.002 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.007 CF   0.019]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 679344901 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]




   1. Cubeful 2-ply    24/22 11/10                  Eq.:  -0.275
      0.419 0.097 0.002 - 0.581 0.144 0.004
       2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
   2. Cubeful 2-ply    24/22 8/7                    Eq.:  -0.305 ( -0.030)
      0.418 0.097 0.002 - 0.582 0.159 0.006
       2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
   3. Cubeful 2-ply    24/23 24/22                  Eq.:  -0.307 ( -0.032)
      0.411 0.087 0.002 - 0.589 0.140 0.004
       2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
   4. Cubeful 2-ply    11/10 6/4                    Eq.:  -0.345 ( -0.070)
      0.415 0.100 0.003 - 0.585 0.173 0.011
       2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
   5. Cubeful 2-ply    24/23 6/4                    Eq.:  -0.349 ( -0.074)
      0.419 0.099 0.003 - 0.581 0.186 0.011
       2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
   6. Cubeful 2-ply    24/23 22/20                  Eq.:  -0.352 ( -0.077)
      0.414 0.091 0.002 - 0.586 0.166 0.007
       2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
   7. Cubeful 2-ply    22/21 13/11                  Eq.:  -0.358 ( -0.083)
      0.412 0.092 0.002 - 0.588 0.168 0.008
       2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
   8. Cubeful 2-ply    22/21 6/4                    Eq.:  -0.362 ( -0.087)
      0.414 0.097 0.003 - 0.586 0.175 0.011
       2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

[close]

[ah_clem]

XG analysis of game 1

Spoiler

   Herd   Linus
• Level of Play   World Champ. (-0.0007)   World Class (-0.0071)
• Performance Rating   0.33   3.57
• Checker Play   World Champ. (-0.0009)   World Champ. (-0.0038)
• Cube Play   World Champ. (+0.0000)   Advanced (-0.0203)
• Luck   Quite lucky (+0.0101)   Quite unlucky (-0.0101)
• Total Errors (Blunders)   None   2
   Equity (Cost)   -0.014 (-0.10%)   -0.143 (-1.10%)
   Decisions   21   20
• Checker Errors (Blunders)   None   1
   Equity (Cost)   -0.014 (-0.10%)   -0.061 (-0.47%)
   Unforced Moves   16   16
• Doubles (Blunders)   None   1
   Equity (Cost)      -0.081 (-0.63%)
     - Wrong Doubles      
     - Missed Doubles      -0.081 (-0.63%)
   Cube Decisions   5   3
•  Take Decisions   None   1
• Jokers   3   1
   Luck (Cost)   +0.363 (+2.93%)   -0.363 (-2.93%)
   Rolls   18   18

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