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GRIDGAMMON

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Offline garp_02

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GRIDGAMMON
« on: October 13, 2011, 07:01:10 PM »
Anyone play there? Anyone have any comments?

I see the forthcoming IIBGF World Cup is to be played on there. I have registered and played a few games to try to get used to it. If you think Fibs dice are bad..................etc etc.

Something pretty strange going on there though.

Anyone had any similar experiences?

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GRIDGAMMON
« on: October 13, 2011, 07:01:10 PM »

Offline Tom

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2011, 12:35:16 PM »
GridGammon (GG) is the reincarnation of GamesGrid(GG)

The community does not have as much, well, um, CHARACTER (yeah that's the word - Character) as FIBS does.

Last I checked the game play was quick (minimal lag)

The Dice? All I can say is dice are dice, online or off, they are all crazy.
(Besides it's not the roll but what you do with it)
(if you make the right moves you can maximize the number of moves that you can do something useful with - and THAT is what matters!)

Tom

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2011, 12:35:16 PM »

Offline dorbel

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2011, 02:17:56 PM »
The standard of play is much higher on GridGammon than it is on Fibs, with a number of world class stars to be seen in action. If fibsters play there, they can expect to have a rating about 140 points lower than their normal fibs rating. Shouts isn't quite as lively and their tournaments less interesting. They don't currently have a league.
Good server though.

Offline garp_02

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #3 on: October 14, 2011, 07:21:42 PM »
Thanks for both replies.

Not particularly helpful, but thanks anyway.

I was thinking about this today......sad though I am. I am no expert in computer programming by any means - far from it. But I was thinking about how dice generators actually work. I know they call them random number generators or something like that, but if Fibs and Gridgammon use different programs, will the dice appear in markedly different ways, or particular patterns?

I don't know how these things work but I can't see how a computer program can simulate random throwing of dice without having a repeatable pattern over a pre-determined  number of rolls. If that pattern of rolls is different in each system, does that make it easier to forecast, or develop a style of play if you play with a particular dice generator.

Does that then give Gridgammon players an advantage over Fibs when playing on Gridgammon, and vica versa?

Just curious :)

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #3 on: October 14, 2011, 07:21:42 PM »

Offline dorbel

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #4 on: October 14, 2011, 09:30:33 PM »
I haven't the faintest idea how a random number generator works, nor do I care much, but I do know that on either server there is no way to forecast what number will come up next with a greater degree of accuracy than plain guess work. There is no pattern. Anybody who tells you different is talking through his hat.
Do you seriously imagine that Stick or Kaz or Mochy or Wells or any of the other mega stars that we see play on GG would play on a server with defective dice? It's laughable.

Offline Tom

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #5 on: October 14, 2011, 09:55:54 PM »
pseudo-random number generators is an entire science to itself and even the weakest ones would appear random to a person.

People just remember the BAD Rolls they received and forget the Good ones!

dorbel - ROTFL you are right!

tom

Offline garp_02

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2011, 11:53:11 AM »
Gentlemen,

I am no newbie - though often play like one ;) so comments like 'it's not the rolls but how you play them' are wasted on me, and verging on insulting.

I don't know any of the people you have mentioned, dorbel, so couldn't comment on what they would or wouldn't do.

The point I was trying (poorly it would seem) to make, wasn't that the dice were 'defective' or indeed 'unfair' - just, possibly, different. If different random number generators provide equidistribution of rolls over differing timescales, then is it possible that the 'patterns' of, say, doubles, jokers etc etc will be different on different servers. I agree that it would appear random to any human, but, for instance, gridgammon may be prone to throwing up more consecutive doubles than Fibs or vica versa.

I would add that, while I could expect ridicule from the likes of dorbel, I am dissappointed in Tom.

Regards,

Garp

Offline Tom

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2011, 12:43:18 PM »
I would add that, while I could expect ridicule from the likes of dorbel, I am dissappointed in Tom.

Ridicule? I must have missed it!

It was NOT intended!

If there is a pattern (I strongly doubt it) then each would be different.
That is true even if they used the same algorithm since they would have different random seeds and other inputs.

If there was a pattern it should take billions of rolls to be able to find one, that would be quite a few years of online play.

Google is your Friend...

stick = Stick Rice http://www.mastersofbackgammon.com/players/stick-rice/

kaxz = http://www.mastersofbackgammon.com/players/neil-kazaross/

mochy = http://www.mastersofbackgammon.com/players/masayuki-mochizuki/

You get the idea...

As far as dice go... (real physical dice) are yours round or square?

I laugh when playing live how people fixate on HOW you throw them, some of them are
far worse than the talk about online dice!

tom

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2011, 12:43:18 PM »

Offline dorbel

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2011, 01:07:06 PM »
The four gridders I named are four of the best players in the world, the first three of which I thought would be instantly recognisable to anybody who played backgammon. The fourth, David Wells, earns a comfortable living as a travelling money player at $500 a point minimum. They are good judges of fairness.
A random number generator doesn't provide equidistribution of rolls over a timescale. If you think about this, you can see that if its time scale was 36 billion rolls, then as it began to reach the end of its list, it would have to artificially increase the ratio of those numbers that up until then it had underrepresented. It would also mean that once a number had reached 1 billion, it couldn't appear again!
All random generation means is that the chances of any number appearing on any roll are exactly 35 to 1 against. At the end of 36 billion rolls this means that some rolls will have appeared less often than 1 in 36 and some more. It would be astonishing if one occurred exactly one billion times!
Neither GridGammon nor Fibs has any recognisable pattern to the rolls. How can we be sure of this? Both servers have their share of dice conspiracy theorists, often claiming to have observed their particular bug over thousands of recorded games, but when offered the opportunity to bet on their theory at favourable odds, they invariably decline!
Ridiculous theories attract ridicule. That's a fact of life, so don't take it to heart garp. Take the time to learn how to play. It will be far better spent than trying to discern patterns to dice rolls that don't actually exist.

Offline garp_02

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2011, 02:08:11 PM »
I said that I didn't know these players, not that I didn't know of them - there is a difference  :sleep:

My 'theory' was more of a question, and I thank you for taking the time to 'answer' it.

It is a much less ridiculous suggestion than suggesting that just because good backgammon players play on a particular site, the dice on that site have to be random in the true sense. It is also ridiculous to suggest that their skill in the game makes them more likely to display 'fairness' than any other player or non-player.

Offline diane

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2011, 10:31:42 PM »
I agree that it would appear random to any human,

That is actually the main flaw with this line of thinking. Humans are not 'built' to appreciate random. A survival technique is to look for non random events, patterns and predict what might happen.

They approach everything they do this way. That is why every single dice generator has been accused of cheating by humans who have played, usually fewer matches.

At a table with real dice, they will fixate over which dice to use, how to throw them, whether someone is finding a way to cheat because their rolls appear flukey...etc.

At a Vegas tournament, one of those big names [I forget which, donz would probably remember better than me] has a quirk that after he loses a game in the match, insists the dice are redistributed [which most players would only do at the beginning of the game].

Humans have a very odd relationship with random, and therefore dice..online or in real life. It is really a very small proportion of them that truly understand random..and that to take 2 dice and roll 44 12 times in a row, exists in the field of possibilities, therefore if you do it enough times, it will happen at some point  ;)

The main way to get some understanding of this basic human trait..which is not a failing btw, but what has ensured the survival of the species.,..is to look at the gambling industry. Those who are frustrated trying to understand it, and those who become addicted and lose everything..to those few who truly understand it and the fact that the only right side to be on is to own the casino...

In terms of establishing if dice are truly random or not - it really isn't possible for one single person playing a few games every day - you need a computer recording all rolls and matches for millions of events.  To spare yourself having to do all that, and to understand that every single dice generator has been drawn into question at some point...read this..

http://www.bkgm.com/rgb/rgb.cgi?menu+computerdice
Never give up on the things that make you smile

Offline garp_02

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #11 on: October 15, 2011, 11:56:54 PM »
Since you are one of the good people on Fibs, Diane, I will not reply.

sh**!

But seriously - let me put this point in words of one syllable for dorbel and tom (I tried to get an algorithm to make words less than one syllable but failed) - I had a quest-ion. I think it was val-id, Ab-out diff-er-ent ser-vers hav-ing diff-er-ent dice.

Dorbel made the point that the dice MUST be totally random on Gridgammon, not because they use the Mersenne Twister or any other mathematical theory - no!  The dice on Gridgammon are, officially, random and fair because some guys who are good at the game play there.

That's good enough for me and I will stop searching for God now too, if these guys say it's good.

I will close this 'debate' now - from my side anyway.

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #11 on: October 15, 2011, 11:56:54 PM »

Offline MichaelP7

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2012, 08:41:20 AM »
Since you are one of the good people on Fibs, Diane, I will not reply.

sh**!

But seriously - let me put this point in words of one syllable for dorbel and tom (I tried to get an algorithm to make words less than one syllable but failed) - I had a quest-ion. I think it was val-id, Ab-out diff-er-ent ser-vers hav-ing diff-er-ent dice.

Dorbel made the point that the dice MUST be totally random on Gridgammon, not because they use the Mersenne Twister or any other mathematical theory - no!  The dice on Gridgammon are, officially, random and fair because some guys who are good at the game play there.

That's good enough for me and I will stop searching for God now too, if these guys say it's good.

I will close this 'debate' now - from my side anyway.

Almost all online bg sites use a pseudo-random dice generator. The pattern of spread of rolls differs from the natural type, just check it on google. In a figurative presentation the natural random spread looks like a soft mosaic, compared to the pseudo random that looks like a rough mosaic. As far as i know only the server of "sorrytiger" uses rolls coming from another server that uses a  natural generator based on earth's vibrations or something.

In my opinion there is no significant difference between the two for the purpose of having equal chances Vs your opponent.
Assuming of course the dice generator has not been hacked.There are so many cheaters on online sites, particularly in yahoo, playok even on Microsoft's msn zone, play65 (may it rest in peace :-) ) that I cannot exclude this possibility.

Anyway coming back to the point of discussion, no it is not pattern of spread rolls of the dice generator that gives a regular Fibs player an advantage over someone coming say from gridsgammon and vice versa. In my opinion it is the style of play that dominates a specific site.

FIBS for example has too many bots.They play excellently of course, by always making the best move that will give them maximum chances. Human players at FIBS try their best to play similarly, so i would say there is a specific style of playing at FIBS. Similarly there is a different style of playing at every other site for example at playOK there is what i call the "Romanian" style.At play65 people tended to play a lot of "arabic" style. Perhaps the various styles of play  could be the subject of a newa new discussion.... The point is that a human player need some time to adjust to a site where players play a particular style, and during that time he or she will lose a lot of matches vs players of equal strength.

Furthermore the what i call "fibs style" which is based on playing like the bots -always trying to make the move that will maximize your chances, lacks a very specific element: That of human psychology.
You cannot imagine how much confusion you can cause a human opponent by playing alternative moves, or setting up TRAPS.
The scope is to win isn't it? And you can win Vs a human by judging his way of playing/his estimated response/his psychology.

Offline dorbel

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #13 on: November 06, 2012, 10:56:00 AM »
Quote
Anyway coming back to the point of discussion, no it is not pattern of spread rolls of the dice generator that gives a regular Fibs player an advantage over someone coming say from gridsgammon and vice versa. In my opinion it is the style of play that dominates a specific site.

There is no discernible "style of play" observable on either of these sites. I'm not sure that a "style of play" even exists any more, as even average players these days recognise that good play requires the ability to vary your strategy according to the position, sometimes several times in a game, always many times in a match. There is wonderfully good and shockingly bad play on both, with the general standard being very much higher on the Grid.

Michael goes on to say that there are too many bots on Fibs (How many is too many?) but then deduces from that that Fibsters try to play like them. Actually, there are no players today uninfluenced by bots, even if only by a trickle down effect and just about every world class and expert player on the planet has a bot on their computer and uses it regularly to analyse their matches. They all base their play on what the computer tells them to do. There are no players of significant ability who still play in a way that the bots would rate as bad.

It is true though, that a very skilful player will alter his play against a weaker opponent, not by making inferior plays, but when faced with two plays of roughly equal strength, choosing the one more likely to lead to complex positions later. He will also vary his cube action against his weaker opponent, generally speaking being more conservative in games where there is little skill needed (races, holding games) and more adventurous in high skill positions (prime/prime, back games etc).

So, enjoy Fibs or the Grid. On both you find fair dice (i.e. random in the sense of the next roll being unpredictable to a greater degree than blind chance) and pleasant opponents at every skill level. On the Grid you can even watch the best players in the world, such as Mochy and Falafel. Fibs is better for tournaments and the league. The Grid is better if you want to match yourself against very strong opponents.
I don't know of any site that even comes close to either of these.

Offline MichaelP7

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #14 on: November 06, 2012, 02:06:16 PM »
You seem to revolve all your arguments on the issue of world class or expert players dorbel while at the same time forgetting that these people are actually a minority. Surely there is no distinguishable style of play among those top players regardless of the site they play, but I insist there is a distinguishable style among average players. There is no style at the lower classes either, other than waiting for the doubles to come  :smile:

Offline dorbel

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #15 on: November 06, 2012, 02:57:20 PM »
Insist all you like Michael, but in the absence of any evidence in support of your claim, it's just an opinion. Perhaps you have evidence though, in which case let's see it.
Players below expert level have idiosyncratic flaws of every description, but they don't all make the same sort of mistakes, in fact they don't even make the same mistakes in their own individual games! Their only feature in common is that they don't play very well. The less like the bots they play, the worse they play. A player with a PR of say, 8.0, will tend to play a bit better than that against weaker players and a bit worse than that against stronger, because of the level of difficulty that he will face, but the variation won't be because of any "style". There is no "style" any more, just strong play and weak play, regardless of where it is played.
Is this in fact just my opinion? Yes and no. Yes in that almost anything in bg comes hedged with "except when" and "almost always" and "on the whole". No in that for years past, on Fibs and on the Grid, I have analysed every one of the thousands of matches that I have played, with the best bots available. No recognisable style is evident on either, or indeed in the individuals that I have played more than once. What is noticeable is that I play distinctly better on fibs, almost certainly because of stronger opposition on the Grid!

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #15 on: November 06, 2012, 02:57:20 PM »

Offline MichaelP7

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #16 on: November 06, 2012, 03:37:41 PM »
It is an opinion coming from a subjective observation. We are all allowed to express our opinion in here, just like you did , even if that is based on our personal subjective observation aren't we?
Would you be kind enough to tell me which bg software ever tells in its analyses of any "styles" of play? ;)
« Last Edit: November 06, 2012, 03:47:38 PM by MichaelP7 »

Offline dorbel

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #17 on: November 06, 2012, 03:53:35 PM »
Of course expression of opinion is allowable, desirable even. I only asked if you had any evidence to support it.

Backgammon analysis programs don't of course include an assessment of style, probably because it doesn't exist. They can only measure what they see. The point that I was trying to make is that having spent more hours than any human should, looking at humans and bots play backgammon, is that I haven't seen any signs of these styles that you say exist. If this is because I am being obtuse, please tell me what I should be looking for! If they are obvious to you, it shouldn't be too hard.

Offline MichaelP7

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #18 on: November 06, 2012, 04:59:34 PM »
Of course expression of opinion is allowable, desirable even. I only asked if you had any evidence to support it.

Backgammon analysis programs don't of course include an assessment of style, probably because it doesn't exist. They can only measure what they see. The point that I was trying to make is that having spent more hours than any human should, looking at humans and bots play backgammon, is that I haven't seen any signs of these styles that you say exist. If this is because I am being obtuse, please tell me what I should be looking for! If they are obvious to you, it shouldn't be too hard.

I would advice you to join all available sites have an open mind, don't rely so much on bg software and find out yourself. Try to figure out why for example while the bg software evaluates your level of play by 90% of the times being higher to much higher than your opponent and you still lose. You will be surprised.

Offline dorbel

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #19 on: November 06, 2012, 05:14:45 PM »
Quote
I would advice you to join all available sites have an open mind, don't rely so much on bg software and find out yourself. Try to figure out why for example while the bg software evaluates your level of play by 90% of the times being higher to much higher than your opponent and you still lose. You will be surprised.

So no evidence at all then!
I have played on a number of other sites, some ok but without many players, some now defunct, some awful and at least two (money sites) that were dishonest. I have played in national and international tournaments in ten countries. I don't need any more experience.
I will always have a mind open to evidence, I'm just not seeing any from you..
Why would I not rely on software? Every successful player in the world uses it and relies on it.
We sometimes lose when we play better than our opponent because in many matches, the luck factor is insurmountable. Nothing new to figure out there, or anything that supports your theory.
I am always ready to be surprised by bg, but I won't hold my breath waiting to be surprised by the existence of "styles" in backgammon that are superior to modern, pragmatic play, which is entirely based on what bots do.

Offline MichaelP7

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #20 on: November 06, 2012, 05:55:49 PM »
What are you talking about man?
I told you don't rely SO MUCH on bg software, I did not tell you don't rely AT ALL. BG software will not tell you the style of play, as for the luck factor assessment allow me to say they often are ridiculous. You are not the only one who uses them you know.... Hats off to bg software for their assessments on the cube though.
Styles do exist one very well known is the arabic game or backgame, there are people who are experts on this and constantly revert to it.

Offline dorbel

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #21 on: November 06, 2012, 07:29:55 PM »
Ah yes, the backgame geniuses from the middle east. Well I think we all know how well they do against modern players! It is I grant you a recognisable style, much as a vertical kamikaze dive is a recognisable method of landing an aircraft. Rarely seen on Fibs, never on the Grid and never in this era on live tournament tables. Cubeless in single games, ie Mediterranean cafe style, it can be quite effective. In match play, no.
I look forward to playing you one day. Thanks for the chat, enlivened a dull rainy day for me.

Offline MichaelP7

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #22 on: November 06, 2012, 08:12:30 PM »
Shocked really from your "never" statement. But it seems we all got used with your bold over-generalizations of the type "every expert player uses them, every one of them relies on them, as if you are the spokesman of everyone. :smile: :smile:
And btw I said they REVERT to backgames, this means they start with a hitting tactic then revert to backgame if the hitting goes wrong. The whole thing constitutes a style.
Felafel who is one of your admired heroes does it frequently

Just curious why do you look forward in playing with me? I am just an amateur ;)
« Last Edit: November 06, 2012, 08:20:22 PM by MichaelP7 »

Offline dorbel

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #23 on: November 06, 2012, 08:37:29 PM »
Name one expert who doesn't use a computer to analyse.
Falafel plays in exactly the same way as a bot, as his astonishing PR rates shows. He can of course revert to a back game when he has to do so, but to nominate him as an example of an arab back game stylist is just about as far from the truth as it is possible to get. He is the very model of a modern player, aided of course by his great individual powers of analysis. When he does play a back game, he will play it in the much the same way as XG does.


Offline sorrytigger

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #24 on: November 08, 2012, 09:01:21 PM »
.... As far as i know only the server of "sorrytiger" uses rolls coming from another server that uses a  natural generator based on earth's vibrations or something.

Interesting idea. Who told you that? Maybe you caught some of my very early ideas of employing random.org which maintains to be able to deliver white noise random numbers.

No - it is just a Mersenne Twister from the Python standard libs (http://docs.python.org/release/2.5.2/lib/module-random.html - look around the 3. paragraph). The seed comes from the gnu/linux operating system and (is said to) incorporates random events from peripherals, such as mouse movements. Dice generated are handed to whichever board (table) is in need for a pair of dice. So there is a randomizing effect in this also.

If you were in court and had to prove that a sequence of dicerolls that were rolled during a match came from a RNG and not from manually rolled dice, HOW would you prove it?

Andreas

Offline pck

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #25 on: November 09, 2012, 09:58:09 AM »
If you were in court and had to prove that a sequence of dicerolls that were rolled during a match came from a RNG and not from manually rolled dice, HOW would you prove it?
Excellent question. There is a lot of talk about dice sequences that are "truly random" as opposed to those that aren't. But when the challenge is posed to describe the difference between random and non-random, it quickly becomes apparent that it is unclear what kind of answer could possibly satisfy. The problem is compounded by false and misleading notions such as "any pattern will occur if only you roll often enough" (a widespread erroneous conclusion from the "law of large numbers").

Is 123456123456 a non-random sequence? How many times does the pattern have to repeat until it becomes non-random? Questions like these have no answer because they are confused: It is conceptually impossible to attribute randomness (or non-randomness) to finite sequences of rolls. (Which will yet not prevent us from disposing of a dice generator that repeats 123456 fifty times.)

See also

http://www.fibsboard.com/general-chit-chat/the-old-dice-controversy/msg28741/#msg28741
http://www.fibsboard.com/general-chit-chat/the-old-dice-controversy/msg28758/#msg28758

These are some of the reasons why the random dice debate revolves in an eternal circle.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2012, 11:06:04 AM by pck »

Offline dorbel

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #26 on: November 10, 2012, 08:22:08 AM »
For our purposes, the appearance (or non-appearance) of sequences is of no consequence. All we need to know is that on the next roll we can't predict what that roll will be with any greater accuracy than probability. You can't do that on Fibs or the Grid, so the dice are by backgammon standards, random.

Offline pck

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #27 on: November 10, 2012, 12:54:27 PM »
For our purposes, the appearance (or non-appearance) of sequences is of no consequence. All we need to know is that on the next roll we can't predict what that roll will be with any greater accuracy than probability.
This is confused. The predictability or non-predictability of rolls is inextricably bound up with the appearance of sequences. In order to determine whether a dice generator's next roll is predictable or not, one has no choice but to examine the sequences it produces.

We have to remember that probability represents knowledge: With no prior knowledge of what a number generator has come up with in the past, all options of prediction become the same. Suppose a dice generator named DG_1 only ever rolls the number 1 and one named DG_123456 rolls a more or less even distribution of all numbers between 1 and 6. Suppose further that we have no knowledge (yet) of what either DG does. Then DG_1 will initially be just as unpredictable as DG_123456. Obviously that doesn't make the two generators equal with regard to predictability in the long run. After DG_1 has produced 11111111111, we can hypothesize about its future rolls and successfully predict them. With DG_123456 this may be harder (unless it comes up with 123456123456123456 or some other easily discernible pattern). Whatever happens, the analysis of sequences is crucial to the question of predictability.

Even if the next roll is not predictable from the previous one, it may yet be predictable from longer sequences of previous rolls. I gave an example of a sequence with this property in http://www.fibsboard.com/general-chit-chat/the-old-dice-controversy/msg28741/#msg28741

11 12 13 14 15 16
21 22 23 24 25 26
31 32 33 34 35 36
41 42 43 44 45 46
51 52 53 54 55 56
61 62 63 64 65 66
<repeat from beginning>

(For simplicity, only one die is being rolled here, the corresponding sequence for two dice is a 36x36 matrix.)

In this sequence, the distribution of the next roll is perfectly even with respect to the previous one: Every number n is followed by every number m exactly twice. Hence it is impossible to predict the next roll from its predecessor with "greater accuracy than probability" (with greater accuracy than p = 1/6 for any number). But it obviously does not follow that the sequence is random, meaning that it is entirely unpredictable. For example, knowing that I rolled 444 previously will allow me to predict the next roll to be a 5 with 100% accuracy. Knowing that I rolled 44 will give me a 50/50% predictability of a 4 or a 5 coming up next, and so on.

What the phrase "with greater accuracy than probability" means is exactly what the question of what constitutes randomness (= predictability) is about. It contains the entire complexity of that question. The phrase "all we need to know ..." seems to promise that the issue of randomness can somehow be reduced to something very simple, namely, the predictability of the next roll. But the predictability of the next roll continues to be a very big deal, namely, to show patternlessness in the generated dice sequence. Only the absence of patterns can guarantee unpredictability (= randomness).

Offline Tom

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #28 on: November 10, 2012, 01:31:17 PM »
In order to determine whether a dice generator's next roll is predictable or not, one has no choice but to examine the sequences it produces.

You are leaving out one very important variable! Dice that OTHER players take out of the sequence.
And that in and of itself adds another level of randomness!

Let's say you have your 100% predictable dice:

11 12 13 14 15 16
21 22 23 24 25 26
31 32 33 34 35 36
41 42 43 44 45 46
51 52 53 54 55 56
61 62 63 64 65 66
<repeat from beginning>

But there are 20 other matches going on, if you are talking (rolling slowly) you could only get one roll out of that list while
some of the other 20 other players (on autoroll?) get 2 or more of them. (and then the list repeats)

And with all this unpredictable behavior (other players clicking [ROLL]) what makes matters worse, as you stare at your board
seeing your opponent needs a X (one specific die) to hit you, he has a 16% chance of getting it!
Of course when WE need X and get it, it is not a problem with the dice... but this is an entirely different problem.

Maybe we should define 'predictability' to mean 'predictable by mechanical means' as in an identified algorithm, since a human
predicting it is like playing roulette at vegas and coming away rich, once. They then become very poor because they are
now an expert at roulette.

I throw this is because most discussions of the dice people forget to factor in other players taking dice out of the sequence that you see.

Tom

Offline pck

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #29 on: November 10, 2012, 03:04:25 PM »
You are leaving out one very important variable! Dice that OTHER players take out of the sequence.
And that in and of itself adds another level of randomness!
That's true, but I wasn't writing about rolls in an actual FIBS match. The only purpose of the example sequence I gave was to show that the concept of predictability is a complex and difficult one.

Offline Tom

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #30 on: November 10, 2012, 03:23:06 PM »
That's true, but I wasn't writing about rolls in an actual FIBS match. The only purpose of the example sequence I gave was to show that the concept of predictability is a complex and difficult one.

That is true, but when trying to predict rolls, the point of observation is critical.

The perspective you were considering was from inside the server (the actual roll generator) where it would be impossible for us to observe.

Frankly we could take a sequence of 8 million rolls (takes up 8MB) and repeat that sequence and it would appear random to any observer.
With a sequence that long, it would appear random even if you were the only match running.

I view these threads as entertainment value, since with the information we all have access too, nothing can be proven one way or the other.
And even if we could prove anything, there is nothing we could do to change it anyway.

Tom

Offline pck

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #31 on: November 10, 2012, 03:46:24 PM »
The perspective you were considering was from inside the server (the actual roll generator) where it would be impossible for us to observe.
You still misunderstand. I wasn't talking about FIBS at all. I was countering the notion that an examination of predictability can be decoupled from analysing dice sequences, as dorbel seemed to suggest.

That is true, but when trying to predict rolls, the point of observation is critical.
For the purpose of prediction, the only critical data are the actual rolls that I am handed. That is the only "point of observation" there is.

If anybody wanted to prove or disprove that FIBS rolls are random (which was not my purpose), they could of course not resort to assumptions about the inner workings of the FIBS software. Again, the only data needed are the dice as handed to the players, by whatever machinery is going on in the background.

Offline Tom

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #32 on: November 10, 2012, 03:54:29 PM »
Ah my mistake, with the title of the thread GRIDGAMMON, I thought it was a server specific discussion.

Tom

Offline dorbel

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #33 on: November 10, 2012, 07:46:03 PM »
We're talking about different things really. The only point that I was making is no technique available to a player on Fibs or the Grid will enable you to predict the next roll. Thats it really

Offline pck

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Re: GRIDGAMMON
« Reply #34 on: November 10, 2012, 09:53:54 PM »
We're talking about different things really. The only point that I was making is no technique available to a player on Fibs or the Grid will enable you to predict the next roll. Thats it really
Indeed no one seems to have discovered such a technique and it's highly questionable whether anyone ever will. But to conclude from this that the dice are random is illegitimate. Randomness means absolute (mathematical) unpredictability, not practical unpredictability in the sense that no one has found a technique for prediction (yet).

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