the parimutuel window just closed,
Tom .. heavy last minute betting on
two dicks and a chick brought their odds down from 750:1 (in a 3000 season simulation) to 239:1 (in 10000 seasons) .. so, they could be a good show bet .. anyway, the race is on with a new team now,
Last Orders with
blotsalot,
padski, and
erdbeere .. it looks like they'll go off at about
55:1so, maybe next season for parimutuel betting in
FIBS Yen using a funny money based on RepBot points, experience, and Tourney points .. why not, eh .. can you have that ready by Sunday?
Sequit, i expect a position by position simulation would change the odds somewhat, maybe not by much .. while each position plays out very differently, gains in one position bracket would tend to be offset by losses in another .. differences of 100 rating points change the probability calculation of the underdog winning by about 0.100 or 10% .. since the ratings of individual players by position vary much more than team average and individual wins contribute to team points, positional simulation would be a much more accurate approach, but whether it makes a big difference we'll just have to wait and see
my seat-of-the-pants estimation tells me it won't make that big a difference in preseason odds or even how the order comes out.. how the dice fall and the matches play out will do that big time as the season gets under way .. regardless, i'll try doing this again at the quarter poles, halfway mark and down the stretch updated with actual results at each checkpoint .. that may prove interesting
i tried running a positional simulation this morning, but the way i setup the team by team simulation in Excel requires more tinkering, time, and talent to get it done than i had this morning .. maybe by the update at the quarter pole
boomslang has been working on a statistical approach which may be an easier way to go there anyway .. others are suggesting we update the data continuously .. pretty soon we won't need to play at all, we'll just sit around simulating ourselves, but personal experience tells me it's not nearly as stimulating or satisfying
sixty
