TakeTheMoneyAndRun, has just broken from the pack of five leaders with 3:1 odds for winning. This marks the first time since the season began a single team has taken such a lead, according to my simulation model. We've just passed the halfway pole in the Team League season with 267 games played, 246 unplayed.  Anything can and will still happen, but the reign of the Cube Sluts appears in serious jeopardy.

The odds are based on output from a stochastic simulation model I've been working on since the beginning of the season. The model uses current match results, pre-season FIBS ratings of each player by position, and the FIBS rating formula to predict the outcome of all unplayed matches. The current simulation run represents over 50,000 iterations or seasons with results from 267 games played (268 actually played as of this post).
   
Here are the current predictions. You will note they differ substantially from the team order in the standings displayed at the Team League website, but these are projections based on order of finish over the simulation run. Mathematically they're perhaps a better way to interpret how the teams actually compare with one another in the race to the finish.

I'll continue to post results from the model here from time to time as the season progresses. Good luck and good games to all.

sixty

~v~ ~v~ ~v~ ~v~ ~v~ ~v~

Pre-season			Odds to	% to Make	Odds to
Team Rank	Team name	Win %	Win	Playoffs	Make Playoffs
5	TakeTheMoneyAndRun	36.4%	3:1	19.4%	5:1
2	Club Voodoo	14.0%	7:1	14.5%	7:1
10	Last Minute	13.9%	7:1	12.2%	8:1
1	Smack, Slap, and Spank	11.2%	9:1	10.9%	9:1
3	Cube Sluts	8.9%	11:1	10.1%	10:1
9	No Nuts A**hole	4.1%	24:1	8.2%	12:1
4	Ottoman's Empire	3.7%	27:1	7.3%	14:1
7	Virtual Addicts	2.6%	38:1	5.1%	20:1
12	TBD	2.1%	47:1	3.8%	26:1
8	Gammonizers	1.8%	56:1	5.1%	20:1
11	schigstogsedat	0.8%	127:1	1.9%	53:1
6	Lipstick & Testosterone	0.4%	244:1	1.0%	103:1
16	Last Orders	0.1%	1,934:1	0.3%	344:1
17	white punks on dope	0.0%	54,152:1	0.1%	671:1
14	UN Trio	0.0%	54,152:1	0.0%	4,886:1
19	two dicks and a chick	0.0%	54,152:1	0.0%	9,550:1
15	MOJO	0.0%	54,152:1	0.0%	23,345:1
13	three.DOG.night	0.0%	xxx	0.0%	3,001:1
18	Last, But Not Least	0.0%	xxx	0.0%	210,103:1

(Note that Playoffs have only been discussed, whether they will be held is still undetermined.  The model assumes a finish in 1st through 4th makes the playoffs.)

I think there's something 'odd' about your predictions...
 
1) I don't see why "white punks on dope" have a lower chance (0%) of being successful (whether winning the league or reaching the playoffs) than for example "Lipstick & Testosterone".  My guess is that WPOD have quite a good chance to end up in top 4.

2) If "TakeTheMoneyAndRun" have 41.1% chance to win (i.e. reaching top 1), the chances of reaching the playoffs (i.e. ending up in top 4) would be at least 41.1% for them, so your 20.2% can't be correct.

Further more, a 20.2% chance would be a 1:4 odds and not 5:1 odds.


-- boomslang

TakeTheMoneyAndRun is now an even money favorite to win the Team League season according to the latest run of the simulation model .. Last Minute and No Nuts A**hole appear to have fallen well off the pace with Virtual Addicts closing fast, but still well back

thanks to boomslang, a problem with correctly reporting odds for white punks on dope has also been fixed .. as boomslang suggested, wpod is in 5th place in a race to make the playoffs .. btw, team TBD was renamed to Gno Mo Soup

so, after 315 matches completed this morning at 7:30am here are the current odds and predictions for a simulation run of 20,000 iterations or seasons (currently 321 matches have been completed)

Pre-season Team Rank	Team Name	% to Win	Odds to Win	% to Make Playoffs	Odds to Make Playoffs
5	TakeTheMoneyAndRun	49.4%	1:1	21.0%	4:1
2	Club Voodoo	13.9%	6:1	14.8%	6:1
1	Smack Slap and Spank	13.4%	6:1	12.5%	7:1
3	Cube Sluts	7.0%	13:1	9.9%	9:1
4	Ottoman's Empire	4.0%	24:1	7.3%	13:1
7	Virtual Addicts	2.8%	35:1	5.9%	16:1
12	Gno Mo Soup	2.5%	39:1	4.8%	20:1
11	schigstogsedat	1.8%	53:1	3.2%	30:1
10	Last Minute	1.6%	63:1	3.2%	30:1
9	No Nuts A**hole	1.2%	84:1	4.1%	23:1
17	white punks on dope	0.9%	115:1	9.2%	10:1
8	Gammonizers	0.8%	125:1	2.2%	45:1
6	Lipstick & Testosterone	0.8%	126:1	1.5%	65:1
16	Last Orders	0.1%	1050:1	0.3%	290:1
14	UN Trio	0.0%	0	0.2%	573:1
19	two dicks and a chick	0.0%	0	0.0%	4626:1
15	MOJO	0.0%	0	0.0%	83280:1
13	three.DOG.night	0.0%	0	0.0%	0
18	Last But Not Least	0.0%	0	0.0%	0

(Note: Playoffs have only been discussed, whether they will be held is still undetermined.  The model assumes a finish in 1st through 4th makes the playoffs.)

when i began working on this model the preliminary races of the Breeder's Cup, horse racing's premier event each fall, were being run on TV .. i began thinking of the order of the teams as a pack of horses breaking from the gate .. while the odds to win and/or make the playoffs (if any) are not classic parimutuel odds, they are becoming a dynamic way of handicapping the Team League season and seeing the standings in a different way, hopefully an entertaining one .. to extend that metaphor, the race, now two-thirds finished, is entering the clubhouse turn with teams jockeying for position in what may be another exciting finish

TakeTheMoneyAndRun remains alone in front and the even money favorite to win this season .. Smack, Slap, and Spank and Club Voodoo remain neck and neck in second and third, but have fallen back a little with 8:1 and 9:1 odds to win, respectively .. Cube Sluts, still holding in fourth place and within striking distance of a fourth consecutive championship, have gained a little ground, improving to 11:1 odds to win .. Virtual Addicts have moved up strongly over the weekend into contention now in fifth with 12:1 odds to win

also moving up and next back in sixth is schigstogsedat, improving to 32:1 odds, just ahead of Gno Mo Soup at 34:1 .. in eighth and ninth, gaining a little ground but still well back, are Last Minute and No Nuts A**hole, 56:1 and 80:1, respectively .. others remain mired in the pack or losing ground with the exception of UN Trio making a nice move from deep in the pack 

there are several important rubber matches to decide the winner of team points now shaping up .. these will no doubt have an important influence on final team standings .. even teams out of the running may pull off upsets which can decide the season .. so, as we all begin playing matches, let us know in shouts so we can watch and share in the excitement

boomslang's comments really helped find a subtle error in earlier versions of the model .. it would be most helpful if anyone sees any other oddities in the way your team is moving in the pack since the last post .. also,  questions or comments on the way these predictions are expressed are most welcome

with 340 matches played (current as of this post) we are two-thirds of the way finished with the season .. the simulation for 12,000 iterations or seasons provides the following results

Pre-Season Team Rank	Team Name	% to Win	Odds to Win	% to Make Playoffs*	Odds to Make Playoffs*
5	TakeTheMoneyAndRun	50.3%	1:1	21.1%	4:1
1	Smack Slap and Spank	11.1%	8:1	11.6%	8:1
2	Club Voodoo	9.6%	9:1	13.6%	6:1
3	Cube Sluts	8.2%	11:1	9.6%	9:1
7	Virtual Addicts	7.4%	12:1	10.1%	9:1
11	schigstogsedat	3.1%	32:1	4.2%	23:1
12	Gno Mo Soup	2.8%	34:1	5.0%	19:1
10	Last Minute	2.4%	41:1	4.6%	21:1
9	No Nuts A**hole	1.8%	56:1	4.8%	20:1
4	Ottoman's Empire	1.2%	80:1	3.6%	27:1
17	white punks on dope	0.7%	135:1	7.9%	12:1
8	Gammonizers	0.7%	142:1	2.1%	47:1
6	Lipstick & Testosterone	0.6%	178:1	1.3%	77:1
16	Last Orders	0.1%	1332:1	0.3%	391:1
14	UN Trio	0.0%	6000:1	0.3%	372:1
15	MOJO	0.0%	0	0.0%	11746:1
13	three.DOG.night	0.0%	0	0.0%	0
19	two dicks and a chick	0.0%	0	0.0%	0
18	Last But Not Least	0.0%	0	0.0%	0

(* Note: Playoffs have only been discussed, whether they will be held is still undetermined.  The model assumes a finish in 1st through 4th makes the playoffs.)

it's Haloween and the teams are shuffling like kids in line for candy as players complete deciding rubber matches for team points .. BushSucks on the leading team TakeTheMoneyAndRun was defeated by Slipshod on No Nuts A**hole .. for the first time since taking the even money lead last week, odds to win for TakeTheMoneyAndRun drop to 3:2 or about 41% chance to win (down from about 50%) .. with the win, No Nuts A**hole improves to 32:1 as they move up to eighth place

after the strong move yesterday by Cube Sluts, Wallenstein on three.DOG.night defeated diane and Cube Sluts dropped back to third place with odds of 9:1 to win .. three.DOG.night remains well back

schigstogsedat was involved in three rubber matches for team points - losing two and winning one .. Gussssss on UN Trio defeated Schigolch .. Schigolch then defeated bardancer on Smack, Slap, Spank .. souptree on Gno Mo Soup defeated stog for schigstogsedat's second team point loss .. schigstogsedat drops back to tenth at 37:1 odds .. Gno Mo Soup remains in eleventh place at 57:1 .. Smack, Slap, Spank falls back to sixth at 20:1 while UN Trio remains well back

as odds to win begin changing for many teams and as teams begin to cluster and change positions within the first ten places, this could be an early indicator that anybody can still win or perhaps contending teams are beginning to knock one another off .. regardless, TakeTheMoneyAndRun still is in a strong position with six team point matches yet to be decided against Gammonizers, schigstogsedat, Gno Mo Soup, Lipstick & Testosterone, Last Orders, and MOJO .. it will likely take at least three upsets for another team to catch them

with 70% of the season's matches now completed at 358 matches played (current with this post), the results of a 8,000 iteration simulation yield the following predictions
   

Pre-Season Rank	Team Name	% to Win	Odds to Win	% to Make Playoffs*	Odds to Make Playoffs*
5	TakeTheMoneyAndRun	40.6%	3:2	19.4%	4:1
7	Virtual Addicts	12.4%	7:1	11.1%	8:1
3	Cube Sluts	10.2%	9:1	10.9%	8:1
2	Club Voodoo	7.5%	12:1	12.2%	7:1
10	Last Minute	6.2%	15:1	7.0%	13:1
1	Smack Slap and Spank	4.8%	20:1	6.1%	15:1
8	Gammonizers	4.7%	20:1	5.3%	18:1
4	Ottoman's Empire	3.8%	25:1	5.7%	16:1
9	No Nuts A**hole	3.1%	32:1	6.5%	14:1
11	schigstogsedat	2.6%	37:1	3.3%	29:1
12	Gno Mo Soup	1.7%	57:1	2.8%	34:1
17	white punks on dope	1.5%	67:1	8.1%	11:1
6	Lipstick & Testosterone	0.6%	156:1	0.8%	124:1
14	UN Trio	0.1%	1142:1	0.5%	196:1
16	Last Orders	0.1%	1333:1	0.2%	507:1
15	MOJO	0.0%	0	0.0%	10334:1
13	three.DOG.night	0.0%	0	0.0%	0
19	two dicks and a chick	0.0%	0	0.0%	0
18	Last But Not Least	0.0%	0	0.0%	0

(* Note: Playoffs have only been discussed, whether they will be held is still undetermined.  The model assumes a finish in 1st through 4th makes the playoffs.)

Approaching the 3/4-pole, with 74.3% of the season completed and according to the simulation model, it appears the race is coming down to the top six teams: TakeTheMoneyAndRun at 2:1, Club Voodoo 5:1, Virtual Addicts 6:1, Cube Sluts 7:1, Last Minute 12:1, and Gammonizers at 13:1 .. but other factors are now coming into play

TakeTheMoneyAndRun, playing only 1 match over the past few days, remains at the top of the pack, but their lead continues to shrink .. the simulation still shows TakeTheMoneyAndRun winning in slightly over one-third of the simulated seasons, but that leaves two-thirds of the seasons with another team winning .. so, the race is clearly tightening and becoming hard to call

the big unknown factor beginning to enter into the equation is one the simulation model cannot calculate ... as the end of season is approaching, reality tells us that not all matches will be completed .. the model assumes all matches are played and completed .. this could be a big difference .. past history of team league shows this has never happened

for example, last season only 7 of the 42 players completed 100% of their matches .. most incomplete matches had nothing to do with determining the season winner, but in a close race all are important .. so, as these predictions continue, actual Team Point and Match Point totals calculated from matches finished become very important - much more important than the simulated results .. remember, the models predictions are for maximum possible Team Points, assuming all matches are played .. actual totals of completed matches will, in the end, determine the winner .. since the season is scheduled to end on November 15th, less than two weeks remain to finish matches

here is the order by Team and Match point totals with the models odds included for the most recent run (also listed below) .. note the significant difference .. despite being a 72:1 longshot, if the season were to end today, White punks on dope is in the barn with 36 Team points and would be the winner .. TakeTheMoneyAndRun, currently in fifth place, needs three more Team point match wins to pass them

i've dropped odds to make the playoffs and pre-season team rank in the tables below .. i've added an interesting new column, Team Points Undecided .. it is the number of team matches where team points have not yet been decided multiplied times three .. thus, adding the first two columns yields the maximum number of team points a team can score for the season .. 46 is the maximum number of team points in a winning season predicted by the model with 42 the minimum winning total in the 10,000+ seasons simulated .. again, the model assumes completion of all matches .. remember, ties in team points are decided by total match points .. theoretically, Lipstick & Testosterone could achieve 50 Team Points by winning all 13 of their remaining undecided team point matches, but in the 10,000+ season simulation, it never happened

Team Points Undecided	Team Points	Match Points	Team Name	% to Win	Odds to Win
6	36	26	white punks on dope	1.4%	72:1
9	33	29	Club Voodoo	15.7%	5:1
9	33	24	No Nuts A**hole	1.5%	66:1
15	31	27	Cube Sluts	12.9%	7:1
18	28	25	TakeTheMoneyAndRun	34.1%	2:1
18	28	23	Virtual Addicts	14.4%	6:1
12	28	23	UN Trio	0.0%	0
18	24	22	Smack Slap and Spank	1.6%	63:1
12	22	15	three.DOG.night	0.0%	0
21	21	20	Ottoman's Empire	0.5%	212:1
24	20	17	schigstogsedat	1.0%	100:1
27	19	23	Last Minute	7.6%	12:1
27	19	23	Gammonizers	7.3%	13:1
21	19	18	two dicks and a chick	0.0%	0
30	16	18	Gno Mo Soup	1.5%	66:1
12	16	7	Last But Not Least	0.0%	0
27	15	15	MOJO	0.0%	0
33	13	15	Last Orders	0.1%	714:1
39	11	11	Lipstick & Testosterone	0.4%	232:1

Thursday and Friday's Match Results:
* for team points
# posted, but not confirmed

* mradica (C) (Virtual Addicts) def. gaspar (No Nuts A**hole)
   blotsalot (Last Orders) def. Pernot_Richard (TakeTheMoneyAndRun)
* Kari_Grandi (UN Trio) def. onion (MOJO)
   Kari_Grandi (UN Trio) def. souptree (Gno Mo Soup)
   inim (white punks on dope) def. Gussssss (UN Trio)
* Ramses (Last, But Not Least) def. Schigolch (schigstogsedat)
* manxcat (MOJO) def. blotsalot (Last Orders)
* Backwoods (Cube Sluts) def. Cassandra (Last, But Not Least)
* Zorba (Last Minute) def. Cassandra (Last, But Not Least)

# vegasvic (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. sarah (White Punks on Dope)
# krautlover (Gammonizers) def. taylor (Ottoman's Empire)

with 381 matches played 74.3% of the season is completed .. the results of a 10,000 iteration simulation yield the following predictions at 11/2/2007 9:06am

Team Points Undecided	Team Points	Match Points	Team Name	% to Win	Odds to Win
18	28	25	TakeTheMoneyAndRun	34.1%	2:1
9	33	29	Club Voodoo	15.7%	5:1
18	28	23	Virtual Addicts	14.4%	6:1
15	31	27	Cube Sluts	12.9%	7:1
27	19	23	Last Minute	7.6%	12:1
27	19	23	Gammonizers	7.3%	13:1
18	24	22	Smack Slap and Spank	1.6%	63:1
9	33	24	No Nuts A**hole	1.5%	66:1
30	16	18	Gno Mo Soup	1.5%	66:1
6	36	26	white punks on dope	1.4%	72:1
24	20	17	schigstogsedat	1.0%	100:1
21	21	20	Ottoman's Empire	0.5%	212:1
39	11	11	Lipstick & Testosterone	0.4%	232:1
33	13	15	Last Orders	0.1%	714:1
12	28	23	UN Trio	0.0%	0
21	19	18	two dicks and a chick	0.0%	0
27	15	15	MOJO	0.0%	0
12	22	15	three.DOG.night	0.0%	0
12	16	7	Last But Not Least	0.0%	0

Individual Stats

with 76.0% of season completed or 390 matches played .. congrats to resh_lakish (10-8) and stog (8-10) for becoming the first players to complete all their matches


Top 25 All Positions
-------------------

Rank	Position	Player	Team	Won	Lost
1	2	scuba	Club Voodoo	13	3
2	3	dorbel	TakeTheMoneyAndRun	13	4
3	3	krautlover	Gammonizers	13	4
4	1	mradica	Virtual Addicts	11	5
5	2	Zorba	Last Minute	11	5
6	3	gumpi	Club Voodoo	11	6
7	3	Kari_Grandi	UN Trio	11	6
8	1	bardancer	Smack Slap and Spank	10	5
9	1	rollingfool	two dicks and a chick	10	6
10	2	Backwoods	Cube Sluts	10	7
11	2	Slipshod