Another Contender Bites the Dust

jimbok on Ottoman's Empire defeats samirah on Gammonizers .. the loss eliminates Gammonizers from contention for the win .. even a sweep of all their ten remaining matches can yield no more than a tie for first with Club Voodoo .. this did not occur even once in the recent simulation of over 12,000 seasons .. further, even if it had, Gammonizers lost their match against Club Voodoo .. thus, once again, the tie break decision would go to Club Voodoo

five teams remain in contention for over taking Club Voodoo .. defending champion Cube Sluts with four remaining matches, all for team points, is the closest to taking the lead but is also the closest to elimination with any loss .. TakeTheMoneyAndRun, the first team to break away with a lead as the pack entered the clubhouse turn, also has four must win team point matches remaining, schigstogsedat has five

two teams have a little more flexibility in that they can lose one of their remaining team point matches, but not more than one .. Gno Mo Soup has seven team point matches remaining, Lipstick & Testosterone eight .. should either of these teams sweep their 46 team point total would surpass that of the three other contenders

Club Voodoo remains the big favorite, according to the simulation results below .. with factotum's win yesterday over DeaDice, the lipstick and testosterone accelerant of L& T, Club Voodoo became the first team to finish all team league matches and remain the team with the highest wining percentage at 35/54 (65%) - yet another kuddo for factotum, scuba, and gumpi

MB/mr

introduced in the last post, MB/mr (matches behind/matches remaining) provides a quick way to see how many team point matches must be won in order for a contending team to catch or pass the leader .. i've now automated the MB/mr calculation and it seems to be working .. boldfaced pairs indicate a team is still in contention .. italicized pairs are displayed for teams out of contention for first place

for pride matches back in the pack, MB/mr is also useful .. for example, there is a tight race for finishing in the top ten in this field of 19 teams where five teams are clustered at about 8 "back" .. mr becomes the more important metric in this contest and provides at a glance how many matches remaining each team has to play

The Race Enters the Stretch Run

with 85.6% of the season completed and 439 matches played, the results of a simulation of over 12,000 iterations or seasons is below

Order	Back	Team Name	TP/Max	MP/Max	MB/mr	% to Win	Odds
1.4	---	Club Voodoo	42 / 42	35 / 35	---	75.6%	1:3
3.8	2.4	TakeTheMoneyAndRun	32 / 44	29 / 35	4/4	9.5%	9:1
4.0	2.6	Cube Sluts	32 / 44	28 / 32	4/4	10.6%	8:1
6.2	4.8	No Nuts A**hole	33 / 42	24 / 32	3/3	-	-
6.6	5.2	Virtual Addicts	33 / 42	25 / 33	3/3	-	-
6.8	5.4	schigstogsedat	29 / 44	21 / 33	5/5	2.1%	46:1
7.6	6.2	Gammonizers	24 / 42	25 / 35	6/6	-	-
8.5	7.1	Gno Mo Soup	25 / 46	22 / 38	6/7	0.9%	110:1
8.8	7.4	white punks on dope	38 / 38	28 / 30	2/0	-	-
9.4	8.0	Last Minute	24 / 42	24 / 34	6/6	-	-
9.6	8.2	Ottoman's Empire	28 / 40	24 / 31	5/4	-	-
10.1	8.7	Smack Slap and Spank	29 / 38	26 / 31	5/3	-	-
10.1	8.7	Lipstick & Testosterone	22 / 46	20 / 34	7/8	1.2%	82:1
10.1	8.7	UN Trio	34 / 40	25 / 30	3/2	-	-
15.6	14.2	three.DOG.night	28 / 34	18 / 25	5/2	-	-
15.8	14.4	Last Orders	24 / 36	18 / 27	6/4	-	-
16.9	15.5	MOJO	21 / 36	17 / 28	7/5	-	-
17.3	15.9	two dicks and a chick	26 / 32	19 / 25	6/2	-	-
19.0	17.6	Last But Not Least	20 / 26	11 / 19	8/2	-	-

Yesterday's Results:

   factotum (Club Voodoo) def. DeaDice (Lipstick & Testosterone)
   wordman (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. souptree (Gno Mo Soup)
*  jimbok (Ottoman's Empire) def. samirah (Gammonizers)

--- posted, not confirmed
   jimbok (Ottoman's Empire) def. padski (Last Orders)
 

Two Down, Two to Go!

donzaemon says he didn't win in Vegas after all, but he's back with a vengeance on Veterans Day defeating Schigolch in a 9-8 match critical to both contending teams .. with the win, donzaemon is now two wins away from single-handedly passing Club Voodoo and threatening an unprecedented four-peat for the Cube Sluts .. their destiny is in his hands, as teammates Backwoods and diane have finished all their matches .. the loss eliminated schigstogsedat from contention for a win

in an earlier match, Gammonizers' michaelsw beat DeaDice eliminating Lipstick & Testosterone from contention .. this leaves only two remaining teams in contention for a win, TakeTheMoneyAndRun in third, according to the simulation results, and Gno Mo Soup, well back and still at long odds

with 86.9% of the season completed and 446 matches played, the results of a season simulation of 3,000 iterations or seasons are below

Order	Back	Team Name	TP/Max	MP/Max	MB/mr	% to Win	Odds
1.7	---	Club Voodoo	42 / 42	35 / 35	---	54.9%	1:1
2.5	0.8	Cube Sluts	38 / 44	30 / 32	2/2	33.8%	2:1
4.0	2.3	TakeTheMoneyAndRun	32 / 44	29 / 35	4/4	10.7%	8:1
5.8	4.1	Virtual Addicts	37 / 40	28 / 32	2/1	-	-
6.4	4.7	No Nuts A**hole	33 / 42	24 / 32	3/3	-	-
6.9	5.2	Gammonizers	27 / 42	26 / 35	5/5	-	-
8.4	6.7	schigstogsedat	30 / 42	21 / 32	4/4	-	-
8.5	6.8	Last Minute	27 / 42	25 / 34	5/5	-	-
8.7	7.0	Gno Mo Soup	25 / 46	22 / 38	6/7	0.7%	143:1
9.4	7.7	white punks on dope	38 / 38	28 / 29	2/0	-	-
9.8	8.1	Ottoman's Empire	28 / 40	24 / 31	5/4	-	-
10.1	8.4	UN Trio	34 / 40	25 / 30	3/2	-	-
10.2	8.5	Smack Slap and Spank	29 / 38	26 / 31	5/3	-	-
12.2	10.5	Lipstick & Testosterone	24 / 42	20 / 32	6/6	-	-
15.5	13.8	three.DOG.night	28 / 34	18 / 25	5/2	-	-
15.7	14.0	Last Orders	24 / 36	18 / 27	6/4	-	-
17.2	15.5	two dicks and a chick	26 / 32	19 / 25	6/2	-	-
17.3	15.6	MOJO	22 / 34	17 / 26	7/4	-	-
19.0	17.3	Last But Not Least	20 / 26	11 / 19	8/2	-	-

Afternoon Matches:

    kristoffer (Virtual Addicts) def. johnwayne (MOJO)
    kristoffer (Virtual Addicts) def. sarah (white punks on dope)
*  michaelsw (Gammonizers) def. DeaDice (Lipstick & Testosterone)

--- Posted, not confirmed
*  donzaemon (Cube Sluts) def. Schigolch (schigstogsedat)

Tension Holds

there were only three matches played yesterday between five teams out of contention for first place .. every match is important, but these had no impact on the race for first .. so, there was not much change in the leader board other than in the race to see which teams can make it into the top ten

just before posting this morning, gnowysTwo of Gno Mo Soup defeated MOJO's manxcat, but team points had already been decided

What If

there is no playoff this season, but it was discussed and may be added to the rules for next season .. one playoff format discussed was simply creating a playoff between the top four teams at the end of the season .. the winner of that playoff would then be declared the winner of the season .. the exact nature of the playoff was never announced, but would likely follow the same Team Point approach as the regular season .. regardless, what if there were a playoff? what would the chances of making a playoff look like for teams this season?

the table below includes the playoff columns again .. these have been corrected and adjusted based on boomslang's comments in an earier post .. to my surprise, white punks on dope, near the top of the leader board since day one, did not make the playoffs in any of the simulation runs .. sixth place was their highest finish in any of the 9,000 plus seasons .. remember, the model assumes all teams complete all matches .. 42 match points was the minimum required for a fourth place finish in this simulation run

the playoff columns below assume a team makes the playoffs when it finishes in the top 4 positions

Simulation Results

with 89.1% of the season completed and 457 matches played, the results of a simulation of 9,000 iterations or seasons is below

Order	Back	Team Name	TP/Max	MP/Max	MB/mr	% to Win	Odds	% to Playoffs	Odds to Playoffs
1.7	---	Club Voodoo	42 / --	35 / --	---	55.0%	1:1	100.0%	---
2.5	0.8	Cube Sluts	38 / 44	30 / 32	2/2	33.3%	2:1	94.8%	1:18
3.5	1.8	TakeTheMoneyAndRun	35 / 44	30 / 35	3/3	11.0%	8:1	79.8%	1:4
6.3	4.6	No Nuts A**hole	33 / 42	24 / 32	3/3	-	-	33.5%	2:1
6.4	4.7	schigstogsedat	33 / 42	23 / 32	3/3	-	-	29.0%	2:1
6.8	5.1	Gammonizers	27 / 42	26 / 35	5/5	-	-	32.8%	2:1
7.5	5.8	Virtual Addicts	38 / --	28 / 30	2/0	-	-	0.3%	287:1
8.0	6.3	Gno Mo Soup	29 / 44	24 / 36	5/5	0.7%	150:1	20.2%	4:1
8.4	6.7	Last Minute	27 / 42	25 / 34	5/5	-	-	17.3%	5:1
9.0	7.3	Ottoman's Empire	31 / 40	25 / 31	4/3	-	-	7.8%	12:1
10.0	8.3	white punks on dope	38 / --	28 / --	2/0	-	-	-	-
10.7	9.0	Smack Slap and Spank	29 / 38	26 / 30	5/3	-	-	-	-
11.5	9.8	Lipstick & Testosterone	24 / 42	22 / 32	6/6	-	-	3.4%	28:1
11.7	10.0	UN Trio	35 / 38	25 / 28	3/1	-	-	-	-
15.5	13.8	Last Orders	24 / 36	19 / 27	6/4	-	-	-	-
15.7	14.0	three.DOG.night	28 / 34	18 / 24	5/2	-	-	-	-
17.1	15.4	two dicks and a chick	26 / 32	19 / 25	6/2	-	-	-	-
17.5	15.8	MOJO	23 / 32	17 / 24	7/3	-	-	-	-
19.0	17.3	Last But Not Least	20 / 26	13 / 19	8/2	-	-	-	-

Yesterday's Results:
    DeaDice (Lipstick & Testsosterone) def. bardancer (Smack, Slap, and Spank)
    vegasvic (Lipstick & Testsosterone) def. houtx (three.DOG.night)
*  Otto (Ottoman's Empire) def. manxcat (MOJO)
Morning Match:
    gnowysTwo (Gno Mo Soup) def. manxcat (MOJO)

One Is a Lonely Number

only one match played since yesterday's demise of the Cube Sluts .. sedat defeated Gammonizers' samirah moving schigstogsedat into fourth place according to the simulation .. if we were having playoffs, it would still be an exciting race for that fourth place position

Law of Large Numbers

the total number of iterations for this simulation run was more than 32,000, the largest yet recorded .. unintentionally, i walked away from the computer as it continued to grind away .. comparing these results with the previous simulation run is an interesting exercise that demonstrates an important historical theorem in probability, the Law of Large Numbers .. theoretically, the more samples in a data set, the more likely the observed or measured probability is to converge on the actual probability

so, how many iterations in a simulation run is enough? the answer depends on the observation one is attempting to measure .. for these runs, i've used a very casual approach .. iterations have previously ranged from 3,000 to 14,000 or more .. i've chosen an end point in the past based on visual observation of when key values have reached a reasonable point of stability .. the current run of 32,000 was simply based on how long i was away from the computer .. is it more or less accurate than the previous run of 7,000 iterations?

the law of large numbers, first defined by Jacob Bernoulli one of the first mathematicians to seriously investigate games of chance, says that this run is more accurate .. why then did the odds for Gno Mo Soup decline from 139:1 (a 0.07% chance of winning) to 182:1 (a 0.05% chance of winning)? surely, the one match between two non-contending teams, Gammonizers and schigstogsedat, had nothing to do with it .. frankly, i'm surprised at the difference, but can't give you an exact reason for it

according to Bernoulli, the law of large numbers and the fallacy of small numbers says that the result over 32,000 iterations is closer to the theoretical probability or is more accurate than the results of the 7,000 iteration simulations .. if anything useful can be taken away from this numerical diversion into the history of probability, it is that the 51 wins observed in over 7,000 iterations in the last post is simply a smaller sample than the 175 wins observed in the 32,000 plus iterations of this one .. therefore, according to the law of large numbers the result of this run is more reliable for Gno Mo Soup's odds to win

regardless, only a few serious mathematicians or statisticians among us would care .. for the purpose of "seeing" the standings in a different and perhaps more meaningful way, i think the simulation results have reached a point of stability and consistency that meet all but the most serious purists satisfaction .. if you're one of the later, please get in touch with me and i'll happily let you sniff around within the innards of the model all you like .. if not, i hope you've found the simulations as interesting to read and use as i have

(after posting this, Mort of Gno Mo Soup pointed out that technically Gno Mo Soup can lose one of it's remaining 5 team point matches and still win the TL season .. he may be right .. if Gno Mo Soup can tie Club Voodoo with 42 team points and 35 match points, theoretically possible, Gno Mo Soup would win the tiebreaking decision since they beat Club Voodoo in their heads-up match .. while this is apparently true, the model would have given both Club Voodoo and Gno Mo Soup credit for wins in those seasons .. thus, despite the fact that the model does not (at present) use the heads-up match level of tiebreak decision making, i think the overall results are still valid .. regardless, i've manually updated the Mb/mr value for Gno Mo Soup to reflect this unusual situation - thanks for the heads up, Mort .. i'll look at fixing the model later .. but to achieve such a tiebreak situation, Gno Mo Soup would have to lose no more than one of its 12 remaining matches .. frankly, winning 5 of 5 remaining team point matches may be easier .. at least now we know who another purist is)

with 89.5% of season completed and 459 matches played, the results of a 32,000 iteration simulation are below

Order	Back	Team Name	TP/Max	MP/Max	MB/mr	% to Win	Odds	% to Playoffs	Odds to Playoffs
1.1	---	Club Voodoo	42 / --	35 / --	---	87.7%	1:7	100.0%	---
3.1	2.0	TakeTheMoneyAndRun	35 / 44	30 / 35	3/3	11.8%	8:1	81.7%	1:4
3.2	2.1	Cube Sluts	39 / 42	30 / 31	1/1	-	-	86.3%	1:6
5.2	4.1	schigstogsedat	33 / 42	24 / 32	3/3	-	-	45.3%	1:1
6.2	5.1	No Nuts A**hole	33 / 42	24 / 32	3/3	-	-	32.5%	2:1
7.4	6.3	Virtual Addicts	38 / --	28 / 30	2/0	-	-	0.3%	287:1
7.7	6.6	Gammonizers	27 / 42	26 / 34	5/5	-	-	23.8%	3:1
7.8	6.7	Gno Mo Soup	29 / 44	24 / 36	4/5	0.5%	182:1	21.9%	4:1
8.2	7.1	Last Minute	27 / 42	25 / 34	5/5	-	-	20.0%	4:1
8.8	7.7	Ottoman's Empire	31 / 40	25 / 31	4/3	-	-	8.3%	11:1
9.9	8.8	white punks on dope	38 / --	28 / --	2/0	-	-	-	-
10.5	9.4	Smack Slap and Spank	29 / 38	26 / 30	5/3	-	-	0.0%	4568:1
11.5	10.4	Lipstick & Testosterone	24 / 42	22 / 32	6/6	-	-	3.5%	28:1
11.5	10.4	UN Trio	35 / 38	25 / 28	3/1	-	-	-	-
15.0	13.9	Last Orders	27 / 36	20 / 27	5/3	-	-	-	-
15.8	14.7	three.DOG.night	28 / 34	18 / 24	5/2	-	-	-	-
17.1	16.0	two dicks and a chick	26 / 32	19 / 25	6/2	-	-	-	-
17.5	16.4	MOJO	23 / 32	17 / 24	7/3	-	-	-	-
19.0	17.9	Last But Not Least	20 / 26	13 / 19	8/2	-	-	-	-

Yesterday's Results:
   sedat (schigstogsedat) def. samirah (Gammonizers)

Morning Results (not included):
   gaspar (No Nuts A**hole) def. Ramses (Last, But Not Least)