schigstogsedat Overtakes Rigged DiceNow A Three Way Race schigstogsedat has with three big wins since the last post, two for team points, made a significant move now challenging the
Cube Sluts and
Racing Snails in the race for the top two spots and a first round bye in the playoffs ..
schigstogsedat's odds to win improved from 20:1 to 4:1 ..
Rigged Dice with a record of 1-3 since the last post including two team point losses dropped from the race for first ..
Rigged Dice's odds to win dropped from 14:1 to 4999:1
Volatility of Predictions the examples above illustrate how important
TP (team points) are in the standings .. it also indicates how quickly the predictions can change when a team gets hot or stumbles .. note the
MB/Mr metric for
Rigged Dice has changed to
2/4 from
2/6 in the last run .. despite an
MB of
2 (only 2 team point matches behind TP leader), as
mr (matches remaining for team points) decreases the chances of making a significant move for
Rigged Dice decreased substantially .. this not only illustrates the importance of team point matches, but how the model interprets and projects its results
Simulation Results with 70.8% of the season completed 362 matches have been played and one posted but not yet confirmed, only 150 matches remain unplayed .. the results of a simulation of 5,000 iterations or seasons are below ..
playoff calculations are based on a 6 team playoff format | Order | Back | Team Name | TP/Max | MP/Max | MB/mr | % to Win | Odds | % to Playoffs | Odds to Playoffs |
|---|
1.8 | --- | Cube Sluts | 25 / 52 | 27 / 44 | 4/9 | 58.0% | 2:3 | 99.2% | 1:124 |
2.3 | 0.5 | Racing Snails | 36 / 48 | 29 / 37 | --- | 23.5% | 3:1 | 99.9% | 1:832 |
2.7 | 0.9 | schigstogsedat | 24 / 48 | 25 / 40 | 4/8 | 20.7% | 4:1 | 96.8% | 1:30 |
6.2 | 4.4 | Sixty and the Pips | 26 / 44 | 23 / 36 | 4/6 | 0.2% | 416:1 | 62.1% | 1:2 |
6.5 | 4.7 | Rigged Dice | 32 / 44 | 25 / 37 | 2/4 | 0.0% | 4999:1 | 53.7% | 1:1 |
6.7 | 4.9 | Take The Money And Run | 23 / 44 | 21 / 36 | 5/7 | 0.5% | 216:1 | 52.9% | 1:1 |
7.3 | 5.5 | Club Voodoo | 30 / 42 | 20 / 32 | 2/4 | 0.1% | 1249:1 | 39.7% | 2:1 |
7.9 | 6.1 | Ottoman's Empire | 28 / 40 | 20 / 32 | 3/4 | - | - | 28.6% | 2:1 |
8.8 | 7.0 | Axe Wound | 21 / 42 | 21 / 34 | 5/7 | 0.0% | 4999:1 | 24.6% | 3:1 |
9.1 | 7.3 | Virtual Addicts | 13 / 46 | 14 / 40 | 8/11 | 0.2% | 555:1 | 27.5% | 3:1 |
10.7 | 8.9 | Elect Lakish In '08 | 12 / 42 | 15 / 34 | 8/10 | 0.0% | 4999:1 | 13.4% | 6:1 |
11.2 | 9.4 | UN Trio | 29 / 38 | 21 / 30 | 3/3 | - | - | 2.2% | 45:1 |
12.8 | 11.0 | Buds 'n Brat | 17 / 44 | 18 / 37 | 7/9 | 0.0% | 4999:1 | 5.0% | 19:1 |
14.0 | 12.2 | Hopano | 19 / 40 | 17 / 30 | 6/7 | - | - | 1.4% | 69:1 |
14.8 | 13.0 | The Team With No Name | 19 / 40 | 13 / 30 | 6/7 | - | - | 0.1% | 713:1 |
14.8 | 13.0 | two homos and a phobe | 14 / 44 | 14 / 36 | 8/10 | - | - | 0.6% | 166:1 |
15.4 | 13.6 | two chicks and a dick | 25 / 34 | 16 / 30 | 4/3 | - | - | - | - |
18.0 | 16.2 | DG on FIBS | 4 / 52 | 9 / 44 | 11/16 | - | - | 0.0% | 4999:1 |
18.0 | 16.2 | Dracula's Sons | 19 / 34 | 15 / 24 | 6/5 | - | - | - | - |
Matches played since last post: aakjaer (Racing Snails) def. magic_one (DG on FIBS)
wordman (Rigged Dice) def. magic_one (DG on FIBS
* sedat (schigstogsedat) def. wordman (Rigged Dice)
* johnwayne (two homos and a phobe) def. wordman (Rigged Dice)
BushSucks (Take the Money and Run) def. wordman (Rigged Dice)
BushSucks (Take the Money and Run) def. resh_lakish (The Team With No Name)
rollingfool (two chicks and a dick) def. onion (two homos and a phobe)
* Schigolch (schigstogsedat) def. rollingfool (two chicks and a dick)
* mradica (Virtual Addicts) def. inim (The Team With No Name)
Schigolch (schigstogsedat) def. otto (Ottoman's Empire)
* taylor (Ottoman's Empire) def. fashion (Dracula's Sons)
Mort (Elect Lakish In '08) def. adrian (Dracula's Sons)
Mort (Elect Lakish In '08) def. _centasivo (UN Trio)
* kristoffer (Virtual Addicts) def. Mort (Elect Lakish In '08)
kristoffer (Virtual Addicts) def. Wallenstein (Hopano)
* scuba (Club Voodoo) def. mradica (Virtual Addicts)
DeaDice (Buds 'n Brat) def. _centasivo (UN Trio)
Posted but not confirmed
playBunny (DG on FIBS) def. brl (Elect Lakish In '08)
* for team points
Metrics TP/Max and
MP/Max reflect Team Points and Match Points used in TL (Team League) to calculate the team standings .. each three player team receives 1
MP for a match win by any player .. thus, matches between teams are worth 3
MP and can result in an
MP change of 3, 2, 1, or 0
MP for either team ..
TP are awarded based on the outcome of the three matches between the three players on each team .. when a team wins two of the three matches, it is declared the
TP winner and receives 3
TP, the losing team receives 1
TP .. each team starts with zero
TP and zero
MP at the beginning of the season
in the standings above,
TP and
MP are the actual team and match points each team has earned to date .. they are one of the few numbers in the
Simulated Results that is the same as the standings displayed on the TL
homepage ..
Max represents the maximum team points and maximun match points as observed during the simulation run
Anomalies two player issues have arisen since last season that were not dealt with by the last run of the model .. the withdrawal of
brland the banning of
KDP, have
now been included in the most recent simulation run .. for
brl, a match result posted but not yet confirmed of a loss to
playBunny in
brl's last remaining match has been included in the simulation results
KDP's remaining matches have been noted within the model and blocked from being projected .. the impact on team
DG on FIBS can be easily noted by comparing the simulation results from this run and the last when all
KDP's matches were assumed to be completed .. other teams may be impacted as well by this change .. for teams with unplayed matches with KDP, team points will not be assigned when the match score is tied at 1-1 .. in past season's a banning or withdrawal of a player early in the season typically resulted in the replacement of that player .. should
KDP be replaced, i will modify the model to allow those unplayed matches to be projected
a third issue, the
change in rules giving a "
completion bonus for teams with 100% participation" has
not yet been included .. according to the latest modifications of the rules, "
There will be a completion bonus of 3 Match Points and 2 Team Points for any team with 100% participation, i.e. no unplayed matches"
this rule change has not been incorporated into the current simulation run .. since first designed, the model assumes all players complete all matches .. this has never happened since the beginning of TL and is unlikely to happen this season .. thus, the impact of the
completion bonus is impossible to simulate at this time
Future Changes once a replacement is named for
KDP or a ruling on how
KDP's banning will impact the assessment of the
completion bonus, i will change the model to include
completion bonus scoring by defining an individual player's chances of completing any unplayed match based on the percent of matches they have played to date .. this will add another interesting wrinkle to the projected results and simulated
TP/MP scoring .. such unpredictability remains a good fit for stochastic simulation as a player with a higher percentage of matches played is more likely to complete all their matches to contribute to their team's
completion bonus
