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XG paradox !

Author Topic: XG paradox !  (Read 17805 times)

Offline FancyPrince

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XG paradox !
« on: November 17, 2014, 05:12:35 AM »
hello everybody..who said backgammon is a game based on skill and luck and if u beat a strong player u would lose in a long run?! long run means 2000 points match? so let me show my game against very strong extreme gammon. im a casual backgammon player..not so strong but i use my own style of playing..i played an unlimited match against xg (with jacoby rule + beaver action) . just look at to my screenshots :



and



you see my Pr was 22.08 with a red color hehe..and the luck result was average . so i was not lucky and i crashed xg with a big score of 2105 - 124 !!! i just want to show you in backgammon world anything can happen. dont say a lower Pr never can beat a super human higher Pr. many times i played unlimited match and i won with a big score. i think high level players make high level blunders because all top players use the same style that xg uses. i sent the game file as an attachment if u like to watch how game was played. waiting for your comments. thank you.

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XG paradox !
« on: November 17, 2014, 05:12:35 AM »

Offline ah_clem

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Re: XG paradox !
« Reply #1 on: November 17, 2014, 08:45:43 PM »

Offline dorbel

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Re: XG paradox !
« Reply #2 on: November 18, 2014, 03:46:49 PM »
This isn't a 2,000 point match. It's a 24 game money session, so not "in the long run" in any sense. As you have optionally stopped at 24 games and not shown us any other sessions, it isn't unreasonable to assume that you usually get buried!

Offline NIHILIST

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Re: XG paradox !
« Reply #3 on: November 18, 2014, 05:52:27 PM »
I think this guy is secretly vegasvic.

Bob
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Re: XG paradox !
« Reply #3 on: November 18, 2014, 05:52:27 PM »

Offline FancyPrince

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Re: XG paradox !
« Reply #4 on: January 06, 2015, 02:27:38 PM »
This isn't a 2,000 point match. It's a 24 game money session, so not "in the long run" in any sense. As you have optionally stopped at 24 games and not shown us any other sessions, it isn't unreasonable to assume that you usually get buried!
so you think 220 games is a long run? i think it is as long as you want.. take a look at these screenshots..




again ..what do you think? you cant beat xg with normal style of playing ! i just have created my own style..and think this way of playing is so so sharp !


Offline dorbel

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Re: XG paradox !
« Reply #5 on: January 07, 2015, 08:40:16 AM »
The real question here is, "Would you contract to play 220 games against XG for money?" You wouldn't of course, but if you would, the line of prospective backers for XG would reach around the block!

Offline socksey

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Re: XG paradox !
« Reply #6 on: January 07, 2015, 02:00:08 PM »

again ..what do you think? you cant beat xg with normal style of playing ! i just have created my own style..and think this way of playing is so so sharp !



In the long run means lengthy experience.  If you were so smart, you would know that punctuation belongs at the end of a sentence without a space in between.   ;)  Please forgive me, you have just exhibited one of my pet peeves.   :)



The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits Albert Einstein


Offline FancyPrince

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Re: XG paradox !
« Reply #7 on: January 08, 2015, 04:51:02 AM »
 If you were so smart, you would know that punctuation belongs at the end of a sentence without a space in between.   ;)  Please forgive me, you have just exhibited one of my pet peeves.   :)



The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits Albert Einstein


haha..but im not smart nor stupid..something in between :-) i expect you backgammon players just watch some of games and tell me if you like my style or not. thank you

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Re: XG paradox !
« Reply #7 on: January 08, 2015, 04:51:02 AM »

Offline FancyPrince

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Re: XG paradox !
« Reply #8 on: January 08, 2015, 05:00:05 AM »
The real question here is, "Would you contract to play 220 games against XG for money?" You wouldn't of course, but if you would, the line of prospective backers for XG would reach around the block!

dorbel you said my match was not a long run match at first time, i gave you another match with long play, now you are speaking about another aspect, i should say yes that was not a real money match but how can i play a very long match with xg ? unlimited match was the option. i didnt understand what do you want to say with the "the line of prospective backers for XG would reach around the block!" plz use simple words :-)
i should say i reached to the 8000 score now! xg is 5000! does anyone want to learn my style? haha

Offline MichaelP7

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Re: XG paradox !
« Reply #9 on: January 09, 2015, 04:40:24 PM »
I only watched fully the session by which you jumped up from 116-49 to 116-2097 and partially some of your other sessions. Your style is the one that drives all games to backgames. This is one of the many strategies in backgammon, as for example is the priming game, the blitzing game etc. However each one should be used accordingly while pushing your game with any single strategy is wrong. Backgames are usually the last resort option.

I noticed you have your own feeling when the position of your backgame is suitable for you to eventually win and in that case you raise the stakes to the maximum. You either drop all other games or play them to completion at low stakes.

You ask if your strategy is correct. The answer is very simple. No!
The reason is again very simple. You bet a backgame at maximum stakes (did you set the max to 2048?) while your chances of winning -at your desired position-are only 40% (Usually single wins). You run the risk of losing 60% and almost all of those loses will be gammons.

My best advice to you is this:DON'T try this in the real world!!

You said that currently you are at 8000 and the bot is down to only 5000.

There are two possibilities for that
Either a)You got lucky in those 3-4 occasions that you managed to drive the game to your desired position with high stakes
or b)You are correctly exploiting most bots' weaknesses in backgames. If this is the case then you are right to talk about a paradox.
For your information there is actually one person at Fibs who does exactly the same thing, he exploits the bots weaknesses in backgames, and uses it to boost up his rating to quite high levels.

Offline dorbel

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Re: XG paradox !
« Reply #10 on: January 09, 2015, 09:49:22 PM »
I don't believe that bots are all that weak at backgames. It's almost certainly true that their play isn't optimal, but how many humans play them better? I doubt if there is anyone on fibs who does. There have been and maybe still are players on fibs who steer for backgames, but if they are successful I would suggest that they would been even more successful with normal strategies.

Offline NIHILIST

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Re: XG paradox !
« Reply #11 on: January 09, 2015, 11:30:21 PM »
Old adage; 

BACKGAMES BECOME BACKGAMMONS

Bob
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Re: XG paradox !
« Reply #11 on: January 09, 2015, 11:30:21 PM »

Offline MichaelP7

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Re: XG paradox !
« Reply #12 on: January 10, 2015, 04:48:32 PM »
I don't believe that bots are all that weak at backgames. It's almost certainly true that their play isn't optimal, but how many humans play them better? I doubt if there is anyone on fibs who does. There have been and maybe still are players on fibs who steer for backgames, but if they are successful I would suggest that they would been even more successful with normal strategies.

This guy wouldn't. He  plays at -30.5 mEMG on checker and -97 on cube that's about 1593 abs.Fibs rating.
Playing a 7 pointer Vs a bot (with normal strategies) he would have about 20% chance, or 15% at a 11 pointer.

« Last Edit: January 10, 2015, 07:45:40 PM by MichaelP7 »

Offline FancyPrince

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Re: XG paradox !
« Reply #13 on: January 15, 2015, 07:29:18 PM »

There are two possibilities for that
Either a)You got lucky in those 3-4 occasions that you managed to drive the game to your desired position with high stakes
or b)You are correctly exploiting most bots' weaknesses in backgames. If this is the case then you are right to talk about a paradox.
For your information there is actually one person at Fibs who does exactly the same thing, he exploits the bots weaknesses in backgames, and uses it to boost up his rating to quite high levels.

michael thanks for your comment. but anyone knows that backgammon engines like snowie or XG are playing backgames at very high level and so dynamic..they defend perfectly, but i think XG has a big BUG and its related to using the cube. why XG raise the cube to 2024 at backgames? backgame player always say welcome to the raising of cube! because he knows if backgame run correctly it can beat the best players in the world. my style is based on holding games and backgames. i use this way for real world and it works correctly!

Offline FancyPrince

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Re: XG paradox !
« Reply #14 on: January 15, 2015, 07:44:25 PM »
Old adage; 

BACKGAMES BECOME BACKGAMMONS

Bob

my own rule :all of backgammon players are using engines for training so they are all experts at this job! if you want to beat them you should create your own style. use backgames as shotGUN because most of them frightening from backgamerS! first sycologicaly beat your opponent then beat him by score
furthermore, playing backgames causes wrong decision of cube use by your opponent.

Offline FancyPrince

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Re: XG paradox !
« Reply #15 on: January 15, 2015, 07:54:06 PM »
i'm challenging all of you readers my topic for a 1001-point unlimited match (with jacoby rule and cube:max128) at netgammon server.
my nickname is Fancy'Prince there. netgammon has a nice graphic you will like it im sure. socksey! come on! dont want to taste my backgames? ;-)
just come at this server and send me an email there.

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Re: XG paradox !
« Reply #15 on: January 15, 2015, 07:54:06 PM »

Offline dorbel

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Re: XG paradox !
« Reply #16 on: January 16, 2015, 04:13:14 PM »
Yes I'm up for this. I assume that $1 a point is not too much for your pocket. I will happily deposit $1,000 as a guarantee of my intent to pay if losing, with an agreed third party. Perhaps stog would like to be the stakeholder in return for 5% of the sum paid to the winner. I will happily accomodate you up to $10 a point if you prefer.

Offline FancyPrince

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Re: XG paradox !
« Reply #17 on: January 16, 2015, 10:33:32 PM »
Yes I'm up for this. I assume that $1 a point is not too much for your pocket. I will happily deposit $1,000 as a guarantee of my intent to pay if losing, with an agreed third party. Perhaps stog would like to be the stakeholder in return for 5% of the sum paid to the winner. I will happily accomodate you up to $10 a point if you prefer.
dorbel i cant play money game now because i live in iran and cant pay your money if you win nor recieve ur money if i win. but lets start a friendly match ha? you konw my ID. come here at netgammon. i want to prove myself to you :)

Offline dorbel

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Re: XG paradox !
« Reply #18 on: January 17, 2015, 09:37:22 AM »
Thanks, but no thanks. I already know how these tactics work out. Get an account on Fibs and I'll be happy to play you a few matches.
Good luck!

Offline MichaelP7

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Re: XG paradox !
« Reply #19 on: January 17, 2015, 04:36:59 PM »
but i think XG has a big BUG and its related to using the cube. why XG raise the cube to 2024 at backgames? backgame player always say welcome to the raising of cube!

I actually agree with you, in what the bots do. A human would very reluctantly cube in a match Vs a weaker opponent in backgames for various reasons, while the bots simply base their cube decisions on the Match Equity table after estimating Wins (single), % gammons and % backgammons for each side . Hence they would  double or redouble with no restriction if they judge it worths it.

There is also another weakness in how Bots handle backgames imo. That has to do with the so called "timing". A human would avoid hitting too much because this offers  his opponent all the timing he needs to have an effective backgame. Bots prefer hitting for their + in equity without usually caring much about the timing factor. Probably because the effect of timing will show up in 8+ plies while bots are not designed to "think" that deep.   Of course they have some correction code running at the end that tries to correct their timing, some rolls before the bearing off phase, by recirculating some checkers. Sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't.

And thirdly you might want to know that the way bots evaluate each possible move, fails many times when the options for that roll are too many. Imagine a roll has 24 possible plays, it often occurs that the best move fails to make it trough their 3-4 ply evaluation and  it could even fail to make it through in rollouts. This is because at some point during this evaluation phase bots start scraping out moves. This is what some people call "confusion" of bots. Such cases where a roll has too many alternative plays are more frequent in backgames.
« Last Edit: January 17, 2015, 05:40:54 PM by MichaelP7 »

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