Spoiler
General rule is that don't seek backgames but sometimes that's the best option. Here Black has lost the opening hitting contest but can continue hit like crazy but he also has to build board and run at the same time. Chances for doing all that when white has strong board are slim. In couple of rolls white is propably going to get big double.
Instead black should go to 3-1 backgame which is one of the strongest back games. Black has very nice timing and white has only 3 point prime. This is perfect time to switch to backgame strategy. It's so strong that white can't even double for a long time. Any hitting play here is a huge blunder (which I of course made also).
Here is the rollout of 3 best moves. Double hit loses almost half a point.
1. Rollout 24/22 6/5 Eq.: -0,318
0,485 0,060 0,003 - 0,515 0,288 0,057 CL -0,344 CF -0,318
[0,006 0,003 0,001 - 0,006 0,005 0,004 CL 0,017 CF 0,041]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
531 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1056721625 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2. Rollout 24/22 8/7 Eq.: -0,364 ( -0,046)
0,479 0,053 0,004 - 0,521 0,291 0,055 CL -0,373 CF -0,364
[0,005 0,003 0,001 - 0,005 0,005 0,006 CL 0,016 CF 0,035]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
531 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1056721625 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3. Rollout 24/23* 24/22 Eq.: -0,536 ( -0,218)
0,416 0,075 0,004 - 0,584 0,280 0,021 CL -0,429 CF -0,536
[0,004 0,003 0,001 - 0,004 0,006 0,003 CL 0,015 CF 0,032]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
530 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1056721625 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]