Question:
Red to play 6-5
Option 1: 21/10
votes: 1
Option 2: 21/16-21/15
votes: 9
Option 3: 11/5-8/3
votes: 2
Option 4: 21/16-8/2
votes: 1
Option 5: 21/16-11/5
votes: 0
Position information:
Pip-counts: Red 107-98 White
Score : Red 0-0 White
Match : 5-pointer
Red to Play 6-5
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_nvjbHZxa_5Y/SS22_8m2N3I/AAAAAAAAAEs/xypjovHxxZ0/s400/problem49.png)
Spoiler
Position ID: ZO8+AADL9kQABg , Match ID: cIm6AAAAAAAA
The aggressive player might stay back to get a shot, but it's a big blunder. Right now, red has substantial potentials for a pure racing game, because even though white has a slim advantage in pip-counts, red is leading in bear-ins. Thus red should jump over the white's 4-pt prime with both of his back men.
1. Cubeful 2-ply 21/16 21/15 Eq.: -0.145
45.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 55.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2. Cubeful 2-ply 11/5 8/3 Eq.: -0.489 ( -0.344)
34.1% 0.8% 0.0% - 65.9% 2.5% 0.1%
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3. Cubeful 2-ply 21/16 8/2 Eq.: -0.510 ( -0.365)
33.2% 2.4% 0.0% - 66.8% 3.9% 0.1%
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
4. Cubeful 2-ply 21/16 11/5 Eq.: -0.554 ( -0.409)
31.8% 2.5% 0.0% - 68.2% 5.2% 0.2%
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
5. Cubeful 2-ply 21/10 Eq.: -0.562 ( -0.416)
31.3% 2.5% 0.0% - 68.7% 4.5% 0.2%
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
As it's shown in GNUBG's analysis, even after running, red is still the underdog, but with a so much little margin that makes it theoretically incorrect for white even to dare to throw the cube.
(PL, i replace the tab characters which sometimes get interpreted and displayed as a meaningless with a single space to improve the readability .. otherwsie, a fine problem and analysis .. sixty)
Spoiler
Position ID: ZO8+AADL9kQABg , Match ID: cIm6AAAAAAAA
The aggressive player might stay back to get a shot, but it's a big blunder. Right now, red has substantial potentials for a pure racing game, because even though white has a slim advantage in pip-counts, red is leading in bear-ins. Thus red should jump over the white's 4-pt prime with both of his back men.
1. Cubeful 2-ply 21/16 21/15 Eq.: -0.145
45.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 55.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2. Cubeful 2-ply 11/5 8/3 Eq.: -0.489 ( -0.344)
34.1% 0.8% 0.0% - 65.9% 2.5% 0.1%
3. Cubeful 2-ply 21/16 8/2 Eq.: -0.510 ( -0.365)
33.2% 2.4% 0.0% - 66.8% 3.9% 0.1%
4. Cubeful 2-ply 21/16 11/5 Eq.: -0.554 ( -0.409)
31.8% 2.5% 0.0% - 68.2% 5.2% 0.2%
5. Cubeful 2-ply 21/10 Eq.: -0.562 ( -0.416)
31.3% 2.5% 0.0% - 68.7% 4.5% 0.2%
As it's shown in GNUBG's analysis, even after running, red is still the underdog, but with a so much little margin that makes it theoretically incorrect for white even to dare to throw the cube.