3-1?
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16-13, 6-5. Damage control here. This is even uglier than black's last roll
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I cant see anything other than the 16-13, 6-5. Yuk, nothing to do but make the best of a rotten roll
Quote from: diane on April 13, 2009, 08:05:28 PM
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I cant see anything other than the 16-13, 6-5. Yuk, nothing to do but make the best of a rotten roll
Diane's BG strategy is to see whatever I do and imitate it. :smile:. I am flattered.
If only I could imitate the rolling, I would be laughing.... :laugh: :laugh:
So we're all commenting on Factotum's move?
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Clearly 16-13, 6-5. But I disagree about it being an ugly roll. It's the position that is ugly and this roll is somewhat useful, safety one blot and then able to slot our crucial 5pt and unstack the nightmare on our 6pt. Plenty of worse rolls...
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Am I the only aggressive *rick here choosing the bold 6/3-6/5?! Duplicating his 4s, unstacking our 6-pt even more and hoping to make an anchor in his outer board in case of missing to hit us and above all, expressing utmost respect to the high levels of testosterone in our noble blood.
I have to go with lews on this one, too. ;) He has such cute dimples! :wub:
socksey
"The United States goes not abroad in search of monsters to destroy. She is a well-wisher to the freedom and independence of all. She is the champion and vindicator only of her own. If the United States took up all foreign affairs, it would become entangled in all the wars of interest and intrigue, which assume the colors and usurp the standard of freedom. She might become the dictatress of the world. She would be no longer the ruler of her own soul." â€" President John Quincy Adams
Quote from: dropper on April 14, 2009, 09:21:34 AM
So we're all commenting on Factotum's move?
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Clearly 16-13, 6-5. But I disagree about it being an ugly roll. It's the position that is ugly and this roll is somewhat useful, safety one blot and then able to slot our crucial 5pt and unstack the nightmare on our 6pt. Plenty of worse rolls...
Beauty is in the eye of the beroller *ducks*
Quote from: dropper on April 14, 2009, 09:21:34 AM
So we're all commenting on Factotum's move?
Spoiler
Clearly 16-13, 6-5. But I disagree about it being an ugly roll. It's the position that is ugly and this roll is somewhat useful, safety one blot and then able to slot our crucial 5pt and unstack the nightmare on our 6pt. Plenty of worse rolls...
I think that is why I wanted to cube last roll ;)
My blot on the 20pt has to stay there, and I must leave another one besides. My play is 16-13, 6-5. I'm leaving the extra blot where it will do the most good if its not hit.
btw, regarding PL's suggestion 6-5, 6-3. Leaving 3 blots instead of 2 makes a big difference in this position. I am already expecting to get hit with almost any 1 2 3 or 4, meaning I'll have to use 1/2 of my next roll to enter. And I might get hit twice. I'm just too vulnerable here to leave a 3rd blot without a good reason, and 6-3 is not a good enough.
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Quote from: PersianLord on April 14, 2009, 09:50:51 AM
Am I the only aggressive *rick here choosing the bold 6/3-6/5?! Duplicating his 4s, unstacking our 6-pt even more and hoping to make an anchor in his outer board in case of missing to hit us
I'd agree that the blot on 16 is not in much danger here, after 6/5. With fours, we'd hit 24/20*. Only 2-2 is an extra shot number.
Also, unstacking the candlestick on fact's sixpoint is a good idea in itself. It could help in a blitz/attack vs. our backchecker.
However, the value of unstacking with 6/3 is limited. It creates what some call a "dilly-builder" I believe. The builder will only be able to move with ones and twos, and then it will make either deep point, with the 4pt still open. Also, we have to cover the 5pt slot first, before we can really use it.
Besides, not playing 16/13 adds sevens (that don't already contain a four!) to our hitting numbers, which is still 4 extra hits for us. And, 16/13 cleans up a blot, which can be very useful if a blot-hitting contest ensues.
The value of leaving the blot on 16 to make an outfield point later for factotum, seems limited here, as the point probably has to go quickly. There's not much timing left to sit on it for a while. Cleaning u the point could prove to be awkward, and it mght be better to run the backcheckers to safety one-by-one. 16/13 makes a start with that.
So, I think 6/3 6/5 is still a bit too risky, given it's probably just a slight gain when things go well.
1. Cubeful 4-ply 16/13 6/5 Eq.: -0,1156
48,57 14,19 0,53 - 51,43 19,84 0,44
4-ply cubeful prune
2. Cubeful 4-ply 6/5 6/3 Eq.: -0,2327 ( -0,1171)
45,55 15,32 0,65 - 54,45 25,73 1,07
4-ply cubeful prune
Interesting here is that 6/5 6/3 manages to win more gammons, even when winning less games overall. So yeah, it's definitely an aggressive play. It just loses too often.