Poll
Question: Move 
Option 1: 22/21
votes: 8
Option 2: 24/23
votes: 0
Option 3: 10/9
votes: 0
Option 4: 8/7
votes: 1
Title: Game 1, move 4: Herd 5-1
Post by: diane on May 19, 2011, 10:50:45 AM
Post by: diane on May 19, 2011, 10:50:45 AM
Position ID: 4G3wAlBkc+KAJA
Match ID: cImmAAAAAAAA
gilesashton rolled 6-1, and entered on the 24, leaving the other checker on the bar, so Herd is now to move. The 5 is pretty obvious I think, so we are just discussing where to put the 1, and if any one is significantly better than anywhere else...
so herd to move 8/3, and....
(http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-match-10/game-1-move-4-herd-5-1/?action=dlattach;attach=6511;image)
Match ID: cImmAAAAAAAA
gilesashton rolled 6-1, and entered on the 24, leaving the other checker on the bar, so Herd is now to move. The 5 is pretty obvious I think, so we are just discussing where to put the 1, and if any one is significantly better than anywhere else...
so herd to move 8/3, and....
(http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-match-10/game-1-move-4-herd-5-1/?action=dlattach;attach=6511;image)
Title: Re: Game 1, move 4: Herd 5-1
Post by: ah_clem on May 24, 2011, 01:19:08 PM
Post by: ah_clem on May 24, 2011, 01:19:08 PM
rollout
No real surprise that the Herd chose the correct move here. I was curious about the cube action - since we cashed next turn I was wondering whether we missed a cube. gnubg says Nope.
1. Rollout 22/21 8/3 Eq.: +0.603
0.610 0.239 0.015 - 0.390 0.085 0.005 CL +0.410 CF +0.603
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.006 CF 0.016]
2. Rollout 24/23 8/3 Eq.: +0.581 ( -0.022)
0.606 0.229 0.014 - 0.394 0.086 0.007 CL +0.404 CF +0.581
[0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.007 CF 0.019]
3. Rollout 10/9 8/3 Eq.: +0.538 ( -0.065)
0.602 0.225 0.014 - 0.398 0.092 0.007 CL +0.388 CF +0.538
[0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.007 CF 0.018]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 888372887 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity +0.410 (Money: +0.371)
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.595
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.405)
3. Double, take +0.529 ( -0.065)
Proper cube action: No double, take (13.9%)
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
0.613 0.226 0.012 - 0.387 0.086 0.007 CL +0.410 CF +0.595
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.006 CF 0.016]
Player gnubg owns 2-cube:
0.616 0.224 0.012 - 0.384 0.087 0.010 CL +0.886 CF +0.529
[0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL 0.014 CF 0.020]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 888372887 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Spoiler
No real surprise that the Herd chose the correct move here. I was curious about the cube action - since we cashed next turn I was wondering whether we missed a cube. gnubg says Nope.
1. Rollout 22/21 8/3 Eq.: +0.603
0.610 0.239 0.015 - 0.390 0.085 0.005 CL +0.410 CF +0.603
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.006 CF 0.016]
2. Rollout 24/23 8/3 Eq.: +0.581 ( -0.022)
0.606 0.229 0.014 - 0.394 0.086 0.007 CL +0.404 CF +0.581
[0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.007 CF 0.019]
3. Rollout 10/9 8/3 Eq.: +0.538 ( -0.065)
0.602 0.225 0.014 - 0.398 0.092 0.007 CL +0.388 CF +0.538
[0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.007 CF 0.018]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 888372887 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity +0.410 (Money: +0.371)
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.595
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.405)
3. Double, take +0.529 ( -0.065)
Proper cube action: No double, take (13.9%)
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
0.613 0.226 0.012 - 0.387 0.086 0.007 CL +0.410 CF +0.595
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.006 CF 0.016]
Player gnubg owns 2-cube:
0.616 0.224 0.012 - 0.384 0.087 0.010 CL +0.886 CF +0.529
[0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL 0.014 CF 0.020]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 888372887 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
[close]