Poll
Question: take? 
Option 1: Take
votes: 2
Option 2: Pass
votes: 4
Title: Game 2, move 4:Herd, cube decision
Post by: diane on June 04, 2011, 12:33:22 PM
Post by: diane on June 04, 2011, 12:33:22 PM
Position ID: 4OfBYBBsG/AJIA
Match ID: MBmgAAAACAAA
Match ID: MBmgAAAACAAA
Title: Re: Game 2, move 4:Herd, cube decision
Post by: stiefnu on June 04, 2011, 01:55:19 PM
Post by: stiefnu on June 04, 2011, 01:55:19 PM
Spoiler
Looks like I'm well out-voted but could this not be a take? Clemstog still have plenty to do and, other than their admittedly strong 4 point board, have a couple of blots with no great board position. Meanwhile, we have time to build our board and perhaps make life a bit difficult for them.
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Title: Re: Game 2, move 4:Herd, cube decision
Post by: stog on June 04, 2011, 03:45:59 PM
Post by: stog on June 04, 2011, 03:45:59 PM
Spoiler
that's the spirit-- the game has much meat left on it.. :) might even switch my vote ;)
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Title: Re: Game 2, move 4:Herd, cube decision
Post by: Krazula on June 04, 2011, 04:24:35 PM
Post by: Krazula on June 04, 2011, 04:24:35 PM
Spoiler
Yes, it might be a take. I'm not sure and I vote for drop though, I think its probably a close decision.
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Title: Re: Game 2, move 4:Herd, cube decision
Post by: ah_clem on June 06, 2011, 01:55:23 PM
Post by: ah_clem on June 06, 2011, 01:55:23 PM
rollout
Clemstog has an impressive board, but no checkers in the zone so the Herd's blot is probably safe for a roll or two. Meanwhile, the Herd has the bar point anchor, and all it will take is for the Herd to roll a 5 to transition this into a very playable holding game. So, despite the weak structure and being massively outboarded, the Herd should take this one.
Of course, I say all this with the benefit of looking at a 2-ply rollout. At the time, I couldn't decide whether the Herd had a take or not so I just pushed the cube according to Woolsey's law. One of the idea's behind that law is that it gives your opponent a chance to make an error.
Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity +0.477 (Money: +0.439)
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.816
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.184)
3. No double +0.716 ( -0.100)
Proper cube action: Double, take
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
0.640 0.233 0.007 - 0.360 0.076 0.006 CL +0.477 CF +0.716
[0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.001 CL 0.004 CF 0.010]
Player You owns 2-cube:
0.644 0.246 0.006 - 0.356 0.081 0.008 CL +1.095 CF +0.816
[0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.002 CL 0.012 CF 0.014]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 885753883 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.1
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Spoiler
Clemstog has an impressive board, but no checkers in the zone so the Herd's blot is probably safe for a roll or two. Meanwhile, the Herd has the bar point anchor, and all it will take is for the Herd to roll a 5 to transition this into a very playable holding game. So, despite the weak structure and being massively outboarded, the Herd should take this one.
Of course, I say all this with the benefit of looking at a 2-ply rollout. At the time, I couldn't decide whether the Herd had a take or not so I just pushed the cube according to Woolsey's law. One of the idea's behind that law is that it gives your opponent a chance to make an error.
Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity +0.477 (Money: +0.439)
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.816
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.184)
3. No double +0.716 ( -0.100)
Proper cube action: Double, take
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
0.640 0.233 0.007 - 0.360 0.076 0.006 CL +0.477 CF +0.716
[0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.001 CL 0.004 CF 0.010]
Player You owns 2-cube:
0.644 0.246 0.006 - 0.356 0.081 0.008 CL +1.095 CF +0.816
[0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.002 CL 0.012 CF 0.014]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 885753883 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.1
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
[close]