FIBS Board backgammon forum

Herd rolled 2-1 and entered one checker..clem got his 6...and a 1 to move..

(http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-match-11/game-2-move-15-ah_clem-6-1/?action=dlattach;attach=6998;image)

22/16 8/7 - only 22 hits the remaining blot.  I like the 1/36 odds.

So, I'm having second thoughts.  I've already "picked up my dice" so i can't actually make a different move at this point, but consider the merits of  22/16 7/6 :

This move gives six shakes to point on the head your blot, vs only one pointing roll for my move.  OTOH, it gives 5 shakes for the Herd to hit vs only one shake for my move.  Is this extra benefit worth the risk?  I might well be - I'm relieved that I finally escaped the 5 prime, so my human inclination is to err on the safe side here.  Perhaps that's an overly emotional response.

Note that the middle of the road move  22/15 gives the Herd 4 rolls to hit but only gives me three covers.  Giving up 5 shots to gain 6 covers has to be better than giving up 4 to gain three.  The question is whether giving up 1 shot to gain 1 cover is better.

I'll stick with my original move -  winning this game being the first priority.  But I'm not nearly sure.  Other opinions?