Poll
Question: Move? 
Option 1: 20/10
votes: 2
Option 2: 8/4, 8/2
votes: 0
Option 3: 13/3*
votes: 4
Option 4: 13/7, 10/6
votes: 0
Option 5: 10/6, 8/2
votes: 0
Option 6: 13/9, 10/4
votes: 0
Title: Game 1, move 5: Herd 6-4
Post by: diane on March 23, 2012, 08:39:47 AM
Post by: diane on March 23, 2012, 08:39:47 AM
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Title: Re: Game 1, move 5: Herd 6-4
Post by: ah_clem on March 23, 2012, 12:53:41 PM
Post by: ah_clem on March 23, 2012, 12:53:41 PM
We're still behind in the race, we have the better board, a great anchor, and he has a blot in his homeboard. Everything points to bold play. 13/3* may be too bold, but I'm going to play it anyway. Again, if he escapes the runner he'll have a clear lead. With him on the bar and 11 checkers in the zone we're in command.
FWIW, I don't think we had a cube before this roll, but I'm not positive.
FWIW, I don't think we had a cube before this roll, but I'm not positive.
Title: Re: Game 1, move 5: Herd 6-4
Post by: ah_clem on March 23, 2012, 08:28:55 PM
Post by: ah_clem on March 23, 2012, 08:28:55 PM
Regarding 20/10 - it abandons one of our primary assets to make a fairly useless point, and decreases the amount of contact when we're behind in the race - once we leave the 5 point, we'll have to pick up that blot soon and then we'll have nada behind our midpoint. This leaves our opponent one big roll away from coasting to a racing victory.
I'll be really surprised if 20/10 is correct.
I'll be really surprised if 20/10 is correct.
Title: Re: Game 1, move 5: Herd 6-4
Post by: stiefnu on March 24, 2012, 11:23:03 AM
Post by: stiefnu on March 24, 2012, 11:23:03 AM
Ok Diane, just in case you were thinking of asking, I won't ship the cube this time. While any 2 or 3, or combinations thereof, will put the Herd on the bar, there are plenty that don't and I still have plenty of work to do. No double.
BTW, I won't be around much on Sunday. Playing in the UK Clubs Championship at Coventry for the Bristol B Team. Our main aim is of course to beat Bristol A ;)
BTW, I won't be around much on Sunday. Playing in the UK Clubs Championship at Coventry for the Bristol B Team. Our main aim is of course to beat Bristol A ;)
Title: Re: Game 1, move 5: Herd 6-4
Post by: ah_clem on March 27, 2012, 09:05:08 PM
Post by: ah_clem on March 27, 2012, 09:05:08 PM
Now that the cube action is settled we can look at some bot results.
rollout:
Congratulations to the Herd for choosing the best play here. A couple of quieter plays are borderline doubtful, and everything else is a whopper. I didn't rollout 20/10, but it's not close. I also didn't rollout the cube action, but it's not close either.
1. Rollout 13/3* Eq.: +0.376
0.573 0.210 0.006 - 0.427 0.104 0.005 CL +0.255 CF +0.376
[0.001 0.002 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL 0.004 CF 0.008]
2. Rollout 13/7 10/6 Eq.: +0.316 ( -0.060)
0.553 0.168 0.004 - 0.447 0.066 0.005 CL +0.236 CF +0.316
[0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 CL 0.004 CF 0.009]
3. Rollout 8/4 8/2 Eq.: +0.309 ( -0.066)
0.551 0.176 0.003 - 0.449 0.054 0.003 CL +0.244 CF +0.309
[0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 CL 0.004 CF 0.008]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 910687781 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
7. Cubeful 0-ply 20/10 Eq.: +0.072 ( -0.303)
0.517 0.129 0.004 - 0.483 0.110 0.003
0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity +0.246 (Money: +0.256)
0.570 0.205 0.004 - 0.430 0.089 0.003
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.357
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.643)
3. Double, take +0.221 ( -0.136)
Proper cube action: No double, take (17.5%)
rollout:
Spoiler
Congratulations to the Herd for choosing the best play here. A couple of quieter plays are borderline doubtful, and everything else is a whopper. I didn't rollout 20/10, but it's not close. I also didn't rollout the cube action, but it's not close either.
1. Rollout 13/3* Eq.: +0.376
0.573 0.210 0.006 - 0.427 0.104 0.005 CL +0.255 CF +0.376
[0.001 0.002 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL 0.004 CF 0.008]
2. Rollout 13/7 10/6 Eq.: +0.316 ( -0.060)
0.553 0.168 0.004 - 0.447 0.066 0.005 CL +0.236 CF +0.316
[0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 CL 0.004 CF 0.009]
3. Rollout 8/4 8/2 Eq.: +0.309 ( -0.066)
0.551 0.176 0.003 - 0.449 0.054 0.003 CL +0.244 CF +0.309
[0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 CL 0.004 CF 0.008]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 910687781 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
7. Cubeful 0-ply 20/10 Eq.: +0.072 ( -0.303)
0.517 0.129 0.004 - 0.483 0.110 0.003
0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity +0.246 (Money: +0.256)
0.570 0.205 0.004 - 0.430 0.089 0.003
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.357
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.643)
3. Double, take +0.221 ( -0.136)
Proper cube action: No double, take (17.5%)
[close]