Poll
Question: Move 
Option 1: 5/1*
votes: 1
Option 2: 8/7, 5/2
votes: 6
Title: Game 1, move 8: Herd 3-1
Post by: diane on March 30, 2012, 10:09:55 PM
Post by: diane on March 30, 2012, 10:09:55 PM
Steifnu rolled 2-1, and the move was very obvious, with anything other than Bar/1, 6/4 being a huge no no...
Herd is up with a 3-1, and choice between being passive or aggressive :) Which do you want?
(http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-match-12/game-1-move-8-herd-3-1/?action=dlattach;attach=7408;image)
Herd is up with a 3-1, and choice between being passive or aggressive :) Which do you want?
(http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-match-12/game-1-move-8-herd-3-1/?action=dlattach;attach=7408;image)
Title: Re: Game 1, move 8: Herd 3-1
Post by: diane on March 31, 2012, 03:12:26 PM
Post by: diane on March 31, 2012, 03:12:26 PM
well..we seem to have a consensus here...with passive being the way of the Herd ;)
Title: Re: Game 1, move 8: Herd 3-1
Post by: ah_clem on April 12, 2012, 09:34:31 PM
Post by: ah_clem on April 12, 2012, 09:34:31 PM
rollout
This is one of two plays this game where the Herd made any kind of significant error. Hitting loose on the ace is correct here - think about it: if he enters, he's still stuck behind a 5 prime and we will have no problem entering since we still have the anchor. If he misses we're 21/36 to cover right away and ice the gammon. Our 21/36 looks a lot better than his 11/36 even if he gets to go first.
the rollout bears this out - hitting gives up 4%of wins to gain 15% additional gammons. Well worth the trade,especially since we're still 80% to win with the hitting play.
BTW, i missed this vote - I'd like to think that i would have gotten it right, but would probably have voted for the chicken play.
1. Rollout 5/1* Eq.: +1.132
0.799 0.521 0.002 - 0.201 0.041 0.004 CL +1.234 CF +1.132
[0.001 0.003 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 CL 0.004 CF 0.006]
2. Rollout 8/7 5/2 Eq.: +1.052 ( -0.080)
0.838 0.370 0.004 - 0.162 0.032 0.002 CL +1.124 CF +1.052
[0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 CL 0.005 CF 0.006]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 917086324 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Spoiler
This is one of two plays this game where the Herd made any kind of significant error. Hitting loose on the ace is correct here - think about it: if he enters, he's still stuck behind a 5 prime and we will have no problem entering since we still have the anchor. If he misses we're 21/36 to cover right away and ice the gammon. Our 21/36 looks a lot better than his 11/36 even if he gets to go first.
the rollout bears this out - hitting gives up 4%of wins to gain 15% additional gammons. Well worth the trade,especially since we're still 80% to win with the hitting play.
BTW, i missed this vote - I'd like to think that i would have gotten it right, but would probably have voted for the chicken play.
1. Rollout 5/1* Eq.: +1.132
0.799 0.521 0.002 - 0.201 0.041 0.004 CL +1.234 CF +1.132
[0.001 0.003 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 CL 0.004 CF 0.006]
2. Rollout 8/7 5/2 Eq.: +1.052 ( -0.080)
0.838 0.370 0.004 - 0.162 0.032 0.002 CL +1.124 CF +1.052
[0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 CL 0.005 CF 0.006]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 917086324 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
[close]