Poll
If we stay, gammons are few and don't really matter AtS plus we increase our winning chances by a small amount.
Stay.
Question: Move 
Option 1: 24/17, 24/15
votes: 1
Option 2: 24/11
votes: 4
Title: Game 2, move 13: Herd 6-4
Post by: diane on April 26, 2012, 11:51:12 AM
Post by: diane on April 26, 2012, 11:51:12 AM
Only two real options here...
Should we stay, or should we go...well come and let me kno-o-w....
Should we stay, or should we go...well come and let me kno-o-w....
Title: Re: Game 2, move 13: Herd 6-4
Post by: ah_clem on April 26, 2012, 12:21:05 PM
Post by: ah_clem on April 26, 2012, 12:21:05 PM
Spoiler
If we stay, gammons are few and don't really matter AtS plus we increase our winning chances by a small amount.
Stay.
[close]
Title: Re: Game 2, move 13: Herd 6-4
Post by: ah_clem on April 30, 2012, 10:11:04 PM
Post by: ah_clem on April 30, 2012, 10:11:04 PM
rollout
Here running is a small error. We'll see if the other stay decisions are correct.
XGID=-BCBBBB-----------bdcBbd--:0:0:1:64:4:0:1:5:10
1. Rollout¹ 21/11 eq:-0.604
Player: 19.84% (G:0.07% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 80.16% (G:0.90% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.001 (-0.605..-0.603) - [100.0%]
Duration: 42.8 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 21/17 21/15 eq:-0.618 (-0.014)
Player: 19.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 80.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.000 (-0.618..-0.618) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 06 seconds
3. 4-ply 21/15 6/2 eq:-0.676 (-0.072)
Player: 16.32% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 83.68% (G:2.27% B:0.03%)
4. 3-ply 21/15 5/1 eq:-0.691 (-0.087)
Player: 15.58% (G:0.09% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 84.42% (G:2.38% B:0.04%)
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
Spoiler
Here running is a small error. We'll see if the other stay decisions are correct.
XGID=-BCBBBB-----------bdcBbd--:0:0:1:64:4:0:1:5:10
1. Rollout¹ 21/11 eq:-0.604
Player: 19.84% (G:0.07% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 80.16% (G:0.90% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.001 (-0.605..-0.603) - [100.0%]
Duration: 42.8 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 21/17 21/15 eq:-0.618 (-0.014)
Player: 19.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 80.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.000 (-0.618..-0.618) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 06 seconds
3. 4-ply 21/15 6/2 eq:-0.676 (-0.072)
Player: 16.32% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 83.68% (G:2.27% B:0.03%)
4. 3-ply 21/15 5/1 eq:-0.691 (-0.087)
Player: 15.58% (G:0.09% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 84.42% (G:2.38% B:0.04%)
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
[close]