Poll
PS spoiler button doesn't seem to work in Firefox 12.
Question: Move 
Option 1: 21/16
votes: 2
Option 2: 6/1
votes: 4
Title: Game 2, move 15: Herd 3-2
Post by: diane on April 29, 2012, 02:05:44 AM
Post by: diane on April 29, 2012, 02:05:44 AM
It is still..shall we stay or shall we go?
Title: Re: Game 2, move 15: Herd 3-2
Post by: ah_clem on April 29, 2012, 02:20:17 AM
Post by: ah_clem on April 29, 2012, 02:20:17 AM
Spoiler
If gammons mattered at all, I'd say run. But they don't so I'm staying put. I doubt it matters much.
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PS spoiler button doesn't seem to work in Firefox 12.
Title: Re: Game 2, move 15: Herd 3-2
Post by: diane on April 29, 2012, 02:51:02 AM
Post by: diane on April 29, 2012, 02:51:02 AM
Spoiler
Oh yes they do....
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Title: Re: Game 2, move 15: Herd 3-2
Post by: Julia_H on April 29, 2012, 09:18:15 AM
Post by: Julia_H on April 29, 2012, 09:18:15 AM
Spoiler
Same problem as before, we're still several moves from getting a shot, and all the time we stay our racing chances go down.
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Title: Re: Game 2, move 15: Herd 3-2
Post by: ah_clem on April 29, 2012, 11:14:56 PM
Post by: ah_clem on April 29, 2012, 11:14:56 PM
Spoiler
Quote from: Julia_H on April 29, 2012, 09:18:15 AMYep, we might be making the same mistake over and over - that's why I haven't rolled out any of the plays yet. My hunch is that the equity difference is small, but it will be interesting to see which is the right idea. Chances are we're going to be forced to run soon anyway.
Same problem as before, we're still several moves from getting a shot, and all the time we stay our racing chances go down.
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Title: Re: Game 2, move 15: Herd 3-2
Post by: ah_clem on April 30, 2012, 10:26:48 PM
Post by: ah_clem on April 30, 2012, 10:26:48 PM
rollout
Now it's starting to cost us real equity. Staying was correct two moves ago when we had the 64 to play. It was a small error last move. Here it cost us .076 EMG. That's not small,although it's not a blunder either.
XGID=-BCBBBC------------dcAbda-:0:0:1:32:4:0:1:5:10
1. Rollout¹ 21/16 eq:-0.751
Player: 12.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 87.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.000 (-0.751..-0.751) - [100.0%]
Duration: 15.1 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 6/1 eq:-0.827 (-0.076)
Player: 8.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 91.32% (G:0.38% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.001 (-0.828..-0.826) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15.4 seconds
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
Spoiler
Now it's starting to cost us real equity. Staying was correct two moves ago when we had the 64 to play. It was a small error last move. Here it cost us .076 EMG. That's not small,although it's not a blunder either.
XGID=-BCBBBC------------dcAbda-:0:0:1:32:4:0:1:5:10
1. Rollout¹ 21/16 eq:-0.751
Player: 12.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 87.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.000 (-0.751..-0.751) - [100.0%]
Duration: 15.1 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 6/1 eq:-0.827 (-0.076)
Player: 8.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 91.32% (G:0.38% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.001 (-0.828..-0.826) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15.4 seconds
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
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