Poll
We need to play the six off of the midpoint. That point is badly overstacked, and unstacking it now is a priority. The other two ways to play the six either expose the runner to a triple shot or uselessly slot the deuce point.
Then it's a question of where to play the one. Slotting and splitting is usually ill advised (see Magriel, chapter 17) so 24/23 is likely incorrect. 7/6 seems too passive, 6/5 seems too risky, and 3/2 accomplishes nothing. That leaves 8/7 as the only remaining option.
13/7 8/7
Question: Move 
Option 1: 13/7, 8/7
votes: 2
Option 2: 24/18, 6/5
votes: 0
Option 3: 13/6
votes: 0
Option 4: 24/23, 24/18
votes: 1
Option 5: 24/23, 13/7
votes: 2
Option 6: 13/7, 6/5
votes: 0
Title: Game 1, move 1 : Herd 6-1
Post by: diane on May 28, 2012, 12:09:06 PM
Post by: diane on May 28, 2012, 12:09:06 PM
move?
Title: Re: Game 1, move 1 : Herd 6-1
Post by: ah_clem on May 28, 2012, 01:55:09 PM
Post by: ah_clem on May 28, 2012, 01:55:09 PM
Spoiler
We need to play the six off of the midpoint. That point is badly overstacked, and unstacking it now is a priority. The other two ways to play the six either expose the runner to a triple shot or uselessly slot the deuce point.
Then it's a question of where to play the one. Slotting and splitting is usually ill advised (see Magriel, chapter 17) so 24/23 is likely incorrect. 7/6 seems too passive, 6/5 seems too risky, and 3/2 accomplishes nothing. That leaves 8/7 as the only remaining option.
13/7 8/7
[close]
Title: Re: Game 1, move 1 : Herd 6-1
Post by: stiefnu on May 28, 2012, 02:46:45 PM
Post by: stiefnu on May 28, 2012, 02:46:45 PM
Spoiler
No board to worry about, so I too say split at the back and bring one down, unstacking the mid, with 24-23, 13-7.
[close]
Title: Re: Game 1, move 1 : Herd 6-1
Post by: ah_clem on May 29, 2012, 10:47:12 PM
Post by: ah_clem on May 29, 2012, 10:47:12 PM
rollout
The Herd chooses correctly again. I guess Magriel's admonishion against slotting and splitting doesn't apply here.
XGID=---Bb-D-B---cEb--c-e----B-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:5:10
1. Rollout¹ 24/23 13/7 eq:-0.251
Player: 44.49% (G:11.25% B:0.72%)
Opponent: 55.51% (G:15.98% B:0.77%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.265..-0.238) - [99.6%]
Duration: 27 minutes 54 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 13/7 6/5 eq:-0.279 (-0.027)
Player: 43.66% (G:11.47% B:0.67%)
Opponent: 56.34% (G:16.32% B:1.01%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.293..-0.264) - [0.4%]
Duration: 29 minutes 18 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 24/23 24/18 eq:-0.281 (-0.030)
Player: 44.19% (G:9.32% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 55.81% (G:16.10% B:0.59%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.293..-0.269) - [0.1%]
Duration: 26 minutes 26 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 24/18 6/5 eq:-0.297 (-0.046)
Player: 44.59% (G:10.07% B:0.71%)
Opponent: 55.41% (G:18.41% B:0.94%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.311..-0.283) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 52 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 13/7 8/7 eq:-0.345 (-0.094)
Player: 42.41% (G:9.98% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 57.59% (G:16.07% B:0.75%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.359..-0.331) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 40 seconds
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
Spoiler
The Herd chooses correctly again. I guess Magriel's admonishion against slotting and splitting doesn't apply here.
XGID=---Bb-D-B---cEb--c-e----B-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:5:10
1. Rollout¹ 24/23 13/7 eq:-0.251
Player: 44.49% (G:11.25% B:0.72%)
Opponent: 55.51% (G:15.98% B:0.77%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.265..-0.238) - [99.6%]
Duration: 27 minutes 54 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 13/7 6/5 eq:-0.279 (-0.027)
Player: 43.66% (G:11.47% B:0.67%)
Opponent: 56.34% (G:16.32% B:1.01%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.293..-0.264) - [0.4%]
Duration: 29 minutes 18 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 24/23 24/18 eq:-0.281 (-0.030)
Player: 44.19% (G:9.32% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 55.81% (G:16.10% B:0.59%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.293..-0.269) - [0.1%]
Duration: 26 minutes 26 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 24/18 6/5 eq:-0.297 (-0.046)
Player: 44.59% (G:10.07% B:0.71%)
Opponent: 55.41% (G:18.41% B:0.94%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.311..-0.283) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 52 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 13/7 8/7 eq:-0.345 (-0.094)
Player: 42.41% (G:9.98% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 57.59% (G:16.07% B:0.75%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.359..-0.331) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 40 seconds
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
[close]