Poll
Question: Move 
Option 1: Bar/23, 13/7
votes: 3
Option 2: Bar/23, 23/21(2), 7/5
votes: 1
Option 3: Bar/23, 23/21(2), 13/11
votes: 2
Option 4: Bar/23, 23/21, 13/11 (2)
votes: 0
Option 5: Bar/23, 13/11(2), 7/5
votes: 0
Title: Game 1, move 2 : Herd 2-2
Post by: diane on May 29, 2012, 10:04:31 PM
Post by: diane on May 29, 2012, 10:04:31 PM
Lots of options here, if there is one you want, but dont see, let me know.
Title: Re: Game 1, move 2 : Herd 2-2
Post by: stiefnu on May 30, 2012, 05:33:31 PM
Post by: stiefnu on May 30, 2012, 05:33:31 PM
Spoiler
22 gives us the chance to make an advanced anchor. With her outfield building up, I think anything else would be a bit of a blunder. Then it's a choice between slotting our 5-pt, a point we'd like to make, or unstacking our bloated midriff. Feeling a bit tubby, this is the one I've gone for. Ok, it does leave a couple of shots but if we're hit, we have a return. If not, we have plenty of flexibility to build up our board or outfield. Bar-23, 23-21(2), 13-11.
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Title: Re: Game 1, move 2 : Herd 2-2
Post by: NIHILIST on May 30, 2012, 06:51:59 PM
Post by: NIHILIST on May 30, 2012, 06:51:59 PM
Agree
Bob
Bob
Title: Re: Game 1, move 2 : Herd 2-2
Post by: ah_clem on May 31, 2012, 08:43:41 PM
Post by: ah_clem on May 31, 2012, 08:43:41 PM
rollout
Making the advanced anchor is correct here, with 13/11 barely edging 7/5 for the final deuce.
Making the deuce anchor and the bar point is a double whopper with cheese.
XGID=---Bb-DAB---bDb-ac-d---AaA:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:5:10
1. Rollout¹ Bar/21 23/21 13/11 eq:-0.014
Player: 49.63% (G:10.10% B:0.40%)
Opponent: 50.37% (G:9.75% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.026..-0.002) - [97.7%]
Duration: 23 minutes 00 second
2. Rollout¹ Bar/21 23/21 7/5 eq:-0.031 (-0.017)
Player: 49.10% (G:10.25% B:0.44%)
Opponent: 50.90% (G:9.90% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.042..-0.019) - [2.3%]
Duration: 18 minutes 37 seconds
3. Rollout¹ Bar/21 13/11(2) eq:-0.207 (-0.193)
Player: 46.14% (G:10.92% B:0.51%)
Opponent: 53.86% (G:16.98% B:0.69%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.221..-0.194) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 59 seconds
4. Rollout¹ Bar/23 13/7 eq:-0.263 (-0.249)
Player: 44.66% (G:9.59% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 55.34% (G:15.58% B:0.50%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.275..-0.252) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 27 seconds
5. 3-ply Bar/23 13/11(2) 7/5 eq:-0.169 (-0.155)
Player: 45.74% (G:10.42% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 54.26% (G:13.90% B:0.52%)
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
Spoiler
Making the advanced anchor is correct here, with 13/11 barely edging 7/5 for the final deuce.
Making the deuce anchor and the bar point is a double whopper with cheese.
XGID=---Bb-DAB---bDb-ac-d---AaA:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:5:10
1. Rollout¹ Bar/21 23/21 13/11 eq:-0.014
Player: 49.63% (G:10.10% B:0.40%)
Opponent: 50.37% (G:9.75% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.026..-0.002) - [97.7%]
Duration: 23 minutes 00 second
2. Rollout¹ Bar/21 23/21 7/5 eq:-0.031 (-0.017)
Player: 49.10% (G:10.25% B:0.44%)
Opponent: 50.90% (G:9.90% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.042..-0.019) - [2.3%]
Duration: 18 minutes 37 seconds
3. Rollout¹ Bar/21 13/11(2) eq:-0.207 (-0.193)
Player: 46.14% (G:10.92% B:0.51%)
Opponent: 53.86% (G:16.98% B:0.69%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.221..-0.194) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 59 seconds
4. Rollout¹ Bar/23 13/7 eq:-0.263 (-0.249)
Player: 44.66% (G:9.59% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 55.34% (G:15.58% B:0.50%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.275..-0.252) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 27 seconds
5. 3-ply Bar/23 13/11(2) 7/5 eq:-0.169 (-0.155)
Player: 45.74% (G:10.42% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 54.26% (G:13.90% B:0.52%)
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
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