Poll
If we play 23/18 then we are guaranteed to get hit there. Every roll hits except 55 and 53 and these point on the head of the blot on the 22. 23/18 23/22 just seems like a recipe for sitting on the bar.
I like 13/8 6/5 - unstack the six point and slot the 5. Julia will have to break anchor to hit it, and I think the additional contact and volitility works in our favor.
13/7 is probably ok, but seems kinda passive.
13/8 23/22 puts a checker utg, for not much gain, so I don't think that's corrrect.
13/8 6/5 for me.
XG Roller's opinion
XG analysis likes splitting to the 22, and does not like the Herd's move as much.
Rollout in progress, but I'm away for a long weekend, so I won't be able to post it til Tuesday.
XGID=---Bb-DBB---bCa-ac-cb--Ba-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:5:10
1. XG Roller+ 23/22 23/18 eq:-0.405
Player: 42.61% (G:9.79% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 57.39% (G:23.51% B:0.45%)
2. XG Roller+ 13/8 6/5 eq:-0.443 (-0.039)
Player: 39.08% (G:8.37% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 60.92% (G:16.07% B:0.49%)
3. 4-ply 23/18 6/5 eq:-0.402 (+0.002)
Player: 42.04% (G:10.47% B:0.56%)
Opponent: 57.96% (G:24.35% B:0.95%)
4. 4-ply 23/22 13/8 eq:-0.408 (-0.003)
Player: 41.43% (G:8.29% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 58.57% (G:19.45% B:0.52%)
5. 3-ply 13/7 eq:-0.503 (-0.099)
Player: 37.07% (G:7.66% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 62.93% (G:15.25% B:0.49%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
Question: Move 
Option 1: 13/7
votes: 0
Option 2: 13/8, 6/5
votes: 3
Option 3: 13/8, 23/22
votes: 1
Option 4: 23/22, 6/1
votes: 0
Option 5: 23/22, 23/18
votes: 2
Option 6: 23/18, 6/5
votes: 0
Title: Game 1, move 3 : Herd 5-1
Post by: diane on May 31, 2012, 09:43:02 PM
Post by: diane on May 31, 2012, 09:43:02 PM
move?
Title: Re: Game 1, move 3 : Herd 5-1
Post by: KDP on June 01, 2012, 02:05:47 AM
Post by: KDP on June 01, 2012, 02:05:47 AM
Spoiler
a lot of players will try to play safe or minimize shots with this crappy roll, and there are times when that might be correct but here i think the best way to approach the roll is to ask whats the best move if i dont get hit. i think we need to move up 23-18 with the 5 to try and make the bar. whats the best 1? i dont want to leave a 3rd blot so 23-22.
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Title: Re: Game 1, move 3 : Herd 5-1
Post by: stiefnu on June 01, 2012, 01:44:22 PM
Post by: stiefnu on June 01, 2012, 01:44:22 PM
Spoiler
Having spurned the chance to advance our anchor to Julia's 4-pt, we are now left with one on the 2-pt and I'm thinking we should hang on to that, for a while at least. Splitting to the bar at this point seems like an invitation to be blitzed to death after she rolls 64, 62, 61, 42, 41, 21, 66, 22, 33, 21 or 11 and some of these are double shots too. I could be wrong but I prefer 13-8, 6-5. It seeks to make a point we want and, if hit, we have that anchor and a possible return shot.
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Title: Re: Game 1, move 3 : Herd 5-1
Post by: NIHILIST on June 01, 2012, 02:56:42 PM
Post by: NIHILIST on June 01, 2012, 02:56:42 PM
Spoiler
We now need to make a move as bold as our last move was cowardly. 23-18, 23-22.
Bob
Bob
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Title: Re: Game 1, move 3 : Herd 5-1
Post by: stog on June 01, 2012, 04:35:14 PM
Post by: stog on June 01, 2012, 04:35:14 PM
Spoiler
13/8 6/5 ---i like to slot the 5 with the 1 here, and bring up a builder with the 5, although i could go with the other suggestions, although i fear we may be in for a heavy pounding!
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Title: Re: Game 1, move 3 : Herd 5-1
Post by: ah_clem on June 01, 2012, 08:11:16 PM
Post by: ah_clem on June 01, 2012, 08:11:16 PM
Spoiler
If we play 23/18 then we are guaranteed to get hit there. Every roll hits except 55 and 53 and these point on the head of the blot on the 22. 23/18 23/22 just seems like a recipe for sitting on the bar.
I like 13/8 6/5 - unstack the six point and slot the 5. Julia will have to break anchor to hit it, and I think the additional contact and volitility works in our favor.
13/7 is probably ok, but seems kinda passive.
13/8 23/22 puts a checker utg, for not much gain, so I don't think that's corrrect.
13/8 6/5 for me.
[close]
Title: Re: Game 1, move 3 : Herd 5-1
Post by: ah_clem on June 01, 2012, 10:09:16 PM
Post by: ah_clem on June 01, 2012, 10:09:16 PM
XG Roller's opinion
Spoiler
XG analysis likes splitting to the 22, and does not like the Herd's move as much.
Rollout in progress, but I'm away for a long weekend, so I won't be able to post it til Tuesday.
XGID=---Bb-DBB---bCa-ac-cb--Ba-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:5:10
1. XG Roller+ 23/22 23/18 eq:-0.405
Player: 42.61% (G:9.79% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 57.39% (G:23.51% B:0.45%)
2. XG Roller+ 13/8 6/5 eq:-0.443 (-0.039)
Player: 39.08% (G:8.37% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 60.92% (G:16.07% B:0.49%)
3. 4-ply 23/18 6/5 eq:-0.402 (+0.002)
Player: 42.04% (G:10.47% B:0.56%)
Opponent: 57.96% (G:24.35% B:0.95%)
4. 4-ply 23/22 13/8 eq:-0.408 (-0.003)
Player: 41.43% (G:8.29% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 58.57% (G:19.45% B:0.52%)
5. 3-ply 13/7 eq:-0.503 (-0.099)
Player: 37.07% (G:7.66% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 62.93% (G:15.25% B:0.49%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
[close]
Title: Re: Game 1, move 3 : Herd 5-1
Post by: ah_clem on June 06, 2012, 02:57:28 PM
Post by: ah_clem on June 06, 2012, 02:57:28 PM
rollout
XGID=---Bb-DBB---bCa-ac-cb--Ba-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:5:10
1. Rollout¹ 23/22 23/18 eq:-0.413
Player: 42.49% (G:10.22% B:0.52%)
Opponent: 57.51% (G:24.42% B:0.48%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.426..-0.401) - [99.9%]
Duration: 15 minutes 40 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 23/18 6/5 eq:-0.440 (-0.027)
Player: 41.50% (G:10.52% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 58.50% (G:25.03% B:0.82%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.453..-0.428) - [0.1%]
Duration: 16 minutes 48 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 23/22 13/8 eq:-0.471 (-0.058)
Player: 41.14% (G:9.26% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 58.86% (G:21.49% B:0.48%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.483..-0.458) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 48 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 13/8 6/5 eq:-0.472 (-0.059)
Player: 38.94% (G:9.06% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 61.06% (G:16.75% B:0.61%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.485..-0.459) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 00 second
5. Rollout¹ 13/7 eq:-0.567 (-0.153)
Player: 36.68% (G:8.03% B:0.53%)
Opponent: 63.32% (G:16.77% B:0.57%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.581..-0.553) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 54 seconds
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
Spoiler
XGID=---Bb-DBB---bCa-ac-cb--Ba-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:5:10
1. Rollout¹ 23/22 23/18 eq:-0.413
Player: 42.49% (G:10.22% B:0.52%)
Opponent: 57.51% (G:24.42% B:0.48%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.426..-0.401) - [99.9%]
Duration: 15 minutes 40 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 23/18 6/5 eq:-0.440 (-0.027)
Player: 41.50% (G:10.52% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 58.50% (G:25.03% B:0.82%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.453..-0.428) - [0.1%]
Duration: 16 minutes 48 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 23/22 13/8 eq:-0.471 (-0.058)
Player: 41.14% (G:9.26% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 58.86% (G:21.49% B:0.48%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.483..-0.458) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 48 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 13/8 6/5 eq:-0.472 (-0.059)
Player: 38.94% (G:9.06% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 61.06% (G:16.75% B:0.61%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.485..-0.459) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 00 second
5. Rollout¹ 13/7 eq:-0.567 (-0.153)
Player: 36.68% (G:8.03% B:0.53%)
Opponent: 63.32% (G:16.77% B:0.57%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.581..-0.553) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 54 seconds
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
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