Poll
I think splitting is stronger than making the deuce point. Since Julia has made her 4 point anchor we need to make our own advanced anchor or get out of dodge. The deuce point won't do.
Question: Move 
Option 1: 24/23 (2), 8/7 (2)
votes: 0
Option 2: 24/23 (2), 6/5 (2)
votes: 0
Option 3: 8/7 (2), 6/5 (2)
votes: 1
Option 4: 24/23, 8/7 (2), 6/5
votes: 4
Option 5: 24/23, 8/5
votes: 0
Title: Game 2, move 1 : Herd 1-1
Post by: diane on June 19, 2012, 07:12:33 PM
Post by: diane on June 19, 2012, 07:12:33 PM
move?
Title: Re: Game 2, move 1 : Herd 1-1
Post by: ah_clem on June 19, 2012, 10:46:14 PM
Post by: ah_clem on June 19, 2012, 10:46:14 PM
Spoiler
I think splitting is stronger than making the deuce point. Since Julia has made her 4 point anchor we need to make our own advanced anchor or get out of dodge. The deuce point won't do.
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Title: Re: Game 2, move 1 : Herd 1-1
Post by: ah_clem on June 21, 2012, 03:38:53 AM
Post by: ah_clem on June 21, 2012, 03:38:53 AM
bot results
I'm on my old slow home computer, so we'll have to make do with XG Roller++ instead of a full rollout. It's not remotely close, so XGR++ should be fine here.
I'm not surprised that the Herd's move is best, but I am surprised at how bad all the alternatives are. I would have thought that 24/23(2) 8/7(2) would have been something like a .03 error, but it's a whopper as is everything other than our play.
XGID=----bBD-B---eE---c-c--b-B-:0:0:1:11:0:2:0:5:10
1. XG Roller++ 24/23 8/7(2) 6/5 eq:-0.136
Player: 45.47% (G:8.69% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 54.53% (G:13.80% B:0.46%)
2. XG Roller++ 24/23 8/5 eq:-0.234 (-0.098)
Player: 42.43% (G:9.55% B:0.31%)
Opponent: 57.57% (G:16.00% B:0.71%)
3. XG Roller++ 24/23(2) 8/7(2) eq:-0.240 (-0.104)
Player: 42.68% (G:8.16% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 57.32% (G:14.44% B:0.51%)
4. XG Roller++ 8/7(2) 6/5(2) eq:-0.243 (-0.108)
Player: 42.75% (G:8.58% B:0.28%)
Opponent: 57.25% (G:16.13% B:0.63%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
Spoiler
I'm on my old slow home computer, so we'll have to make do with XG Roller++ instead of a full rollout. It's not remotely close, so XGR++ should be fine here.
I'm not surprised that the Herd's move is best, but I am surprised at how bad all the alternatives are. I would have thought that 24/23(2) 8/7(2) would have been something like a .03 error, but it's a whopper as is everything other than our play.
XGID=----bBD-B---eE---c-c--b-B-:0:0:1:11:0:2:0:5:10
1. XG Roller++ 24/23 8/7(2) 6/5 eq:-0.136
Player: 45.47% (G:8.69% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 54.53% (G:13.80% B:0.46%)
2. XG Roller++ 24/23 8/5 eq:-0.234 (-0.098)
Player: 42.43% (G:9.55% B:0.31%)
Opponent: 57.57% (G:16.00% B:0.71%)
3. XG Roller++ 24/23(2) 8/7(2) eq:-0.240 (-0.104)
Player: 42.68% (G:8.16% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 57.32% (G:14.44% B:0.51%)
4. XG Roller++ 8/7(2) 6/5(2) eq:-0.243 (-0.108)
Player: 42.75% (G:8.58% B:0.28%)
Opponent: 57.25% (G:16.13% B:0.63%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
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