Poll
If we pass this, we're at 5a 2a for a MWC of 25%.
If we take and win, we're 3a 3a for 50%.
If we take and lose, we're 5a 1a crawford for 15%.
So by taking we're risking 10 to gain 25. our raw takepoint is then
r/(r+g) = 10/35 or about 29%.
I'm not seeing it. We have basically no assets and little hope of getting our runners off the ace point. Pass.
Question: take? 
Option 1: Take
votes: 4
Option 2: Pass
votes: 2
Title: Game 2, move 6 : Herd Cube Decision
Post by: diane on June 30, 2012, 11:40:00 PM
Post by: diane on June 30, 2012, 11:40:00 PM
Take?
Title: Re: Game 2, move 6 : Herd Cube Decision
Post by: Dungeoneer on July 01, 2012, 11:59:52 AM
Post by: Dungeoneer on July 01, 2012, 11:59:52 AM
Spoiler
Certainly White is threatening to build a 5-6 prime soon, but yet just threatening.
43 and and some doubles would lose White's market; some would in combination with a subsequent non-joker shake of ours.
But if White doesn't improve her prime we'd also have some good shakes; esp 11, 33, and 44 and some maybe lucky punches in combinations with a 4, depending on Whites roll and move.
If we'd drop we'd have 25% MWC at 2-way/5-away
If we take:
A pessimistic view:
------------------------
White wins 4 single games -> 15% MWC left for us -> 4*-10% -> -40%
White wins 3 gammons -> 0% MWC left for us -> 3*-25% -> -75%
Blue wins 3 single games -> 50% MWC tied -> 3*+25% -> +75%
=> -4% MWC
An optimistic view:
------------------------
White wins 4 single games -> 15% MWC left for us -> 4*-10% -> -40%
White wins 2 gammons -> 0% MWC left for us -> 2*-25% -> -50%
Blue wins 4 single games -> 50% MWC tied -> 4*+25% -> +100%
=> +1% MWC
*But* there's yet no re-cube potential worked into the figures; e.g. there are even some scenarios possible, esp if White runs very fast with doubles, when we'd almost surely be gammoned if we miss a late shot or win if we hit with 11/36 which could be a reasonable re-cubes for us despite trailing in the game.
Summing up it's a close decision - there are still some fighting chances in the game thus I eat that cube.
"TAKE!"
43 and and some doubles would lose White's market; some would in combination with a subsequent non-joker shake of ours.
But if White doesn't improve her prime we'd also have some good shakes; esp 11, 33, and 44 and some maybe lucky punches in combinations with a 4, depending on Whites roll and move.
If we'd drop we'd have 25% MWC at 2-way/5-away
If we take:
A pessimistic view:
------------------------
White wins 4 single games -> 15% MWC left for us -> 4*-10% -> -40%
White wins 3 gammons -> 0% MWC left for us -> 3*-25% -> -75%
Blue wins 3 single games -> 50% MWC tied -> 3*+25% -> +75%
=> -4% MWC
An optimistic view:
------------------------
White wins 4 single games -> 15% MWC left for us -> 4*-10% -> -40%
White wins 2 gammons -> 0% MWC left for us -> 2*-25% -> -50%
Blue wins 4 single games -> 50% MWC tied -> 4*+25% -> +100%
=> +1% MWC
*But* there's yet no re-cube potential worked into the figures; e.g. there are even some scenarios possible, esp if White runs very fast with doubles, when we'd almost surely be gammoned if we miss a late shot or win if we hit with 11/36 which could be a reasonable re-cubes for us despite trailing in the game.
Summing up it's a close decision - there are still some fighting chances in the game thus I eat that cube.
"TAKE!"
[close]
Title: Re: Game 2, move 6 : Herd Cube Decision
Post by: KDP on July 01, 2012, 12:58:24 PM
Post by: KDP on July 01, 2012, 12:58:24 PM
Spoiler
we have a useless checker on the ace, we have 2 checkers stuck on our 24 pt, white has a better board and is threatening to make it even better, i dont see how we can really contain white 3 stragglers i pass.
[close]
Title: Re: Game 2, move 6 : Herd Cube Decision
Post by: NIHILIST on July 01, 2012, 02:37:47 PM
Post by: NIHILIST on July 01, 2012, 02:37:47 PM
Pass and offer extras.
Bob
Bob
Title: Re: Game 2, move 6 : Herd Cube Decision
Post by: ah_clem on July 02, 2012, 12:11:13 AM
Post by: ah_clem on July 02, 2012, 12:11:13 AM
Spoiler
If we pass this, we're at 5a 2a for a MWC of 25%.
If we take and win, we're 3a 3a for 50%.
If we take and lose, we're 5a 1a crawford for 15%.
So by taking we're risking 10 to gain 25. our raw takepoint is then
r/(r+g) = 10/35 or about 29%.
I'm not seeing it. We have basically no assets and little hope of getting our runners off the ace point. Pass.
[close]
Title: Re: Game 2, move 6 : Herd Cube Decision
Post by: ah_clem on July 02, 2012, 08:23:24 PM
Post by: ah_clem on July 02, 2012, 08:23:24 PM
rollout
The only thing I can figure is that there must be whopping recube vig here since we're right at the raw takepoint and we get gammoned about 25% of the time. Even after staring at the numbers I'm still not sure how this is a take.
XGID=-A--cCCB---BaB--abbb-bb-B-:0:0:-1:00:0:2:0:5:10
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 72.23% (G:24.67% B:3.10%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.77% (G:6.21% B:0.65%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72.55% (G:24.85% B:4.17%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.45% (G:6.29% B:1.00%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.724, Double=+1.295
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.830 (-0.062)
Double/Take: +0.893
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.107)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.014 (+0.816..+0.845)
Confidence Double: ± 0.018 (+0.874..+0.911)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 33 minutes 28 seconds
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
Spoiler
The only thing I can figure is that there must be whopping recube vig here since we're right at the raw takepoint and we get gammoned about 25% of the time. Even after staring at the numbers I'm still not sure how this is a take.
XGID=-A--cCCB---BaB--abbb-bb-B-:0:0:-1:00:0:2:0:5:10
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 72.23% (G:24.67% B:3.10%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.77% (G:6.21% B:0.65%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72.55% (G:24.85% B:4.17%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.45% (G:6.29% B:1.00%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.724, Double=+1.295
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.830 (-0.062)
Double/Take: +0.893
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.107)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.014 (+0.816..+0.845)
Confidence Double: ± 0.018 (+0.874..+0.911)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 33 minutes 28 seconds
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
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