Poll
We need to split with the ace. Then 5/3 is the only reasonable thing to do with the deuce. Granted, the homeboard blot will encourage her to hit loose, but hitting loose on the 23 and 24 points is not as strong as hitting loose on higher points. If we can anchor on the 20 or escape we've got real chances.
Question: Move 
Option 1: 13/12, 13/11
votes: 1
Option 2: 24/23, 13/11
votes: 1
Option 3: 5/2
votes: 1
Option 4: 24/23, 5/3
votes: 4
Option 5: 7/6, 7/5
votes: 0
Title: Game 2, move 8 : Herd 2-1
Post by: diane on July 05, 2012, 09:27:44 PM
Post by: diane on July 05, 2012, 09:27:44 PM
I'm with dungeoneer on this..lets try to find something that frightens Julia..instead of making her feel glad ;) :laugh:
Title: Re: Game 2, move 8 : Herd 2-1
Post by: KDP on July 06, 2012, 12:06:19 AM
Post by: KDP on July 06, 2012, 12:06:19 AM
Spoiler
we need to split the back men to try and escape 24-23 5-3
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Title: Re: Game 2, move 8 : Herd 2-1
Post by: Dungeoneer on July 06, 2012, 07:48:46 AM
Post by: Dungeoneer on July 06, 2012, 07:48:46 AM
Spoiler
splitting seems mandatory; but how to play the deuce? 13/11 leaves a blot on our midpoint; 5/3 weakens our board but plays safer - for now. But White has a spare on her 21pt which will grant her the timing to wait for us to break one of our points sooner or later anyway. Thus I prefer to give her two additional good rolls (63) now (54 is sort-of duplicated because she could point with that on our head on her 2 after the split anyway) while we could use our spare on the 11pt as a builder for our outer-board if she misses. 24/23 13/11
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Title: Re: Game 2, move 8 : Herd 2-1
Post by: ah_clem on July 06, 2012, 12:23:56 PM
Post by: ah_clem on July 06, 2012, 12:23:56 PM
Spoiler
We need to split with the ace. Then 5/3 is the only reasonable thing to do with the deuce. Granted, the homeboard blot will encourage her to hit loose, but hitting loose on the 23 and 24 points is not as strong as hitting loose on higher points. If we can anchor on the 20 or escape we've got real chances.
[close]
Title: Re: Game 2, move 8 : Herd 2-1
Post by: ah_clem on July 08, 2012, 01:19:19 PM
Post by: ah_clem on July 08, 2012, 01:19:19 PM
rollout
A close one, but we chose the right move. The good news is that as of this play we were still 30% to win the game. Tha bad news is that we were 33% to lose a gammon.
XGID=-B--cCBB---B-B---bbd-bb-B-:1:1:1:21:0:2:0:5:10
1. Rollout¹ 24/23 5/3 eq:-0.295
Player: 31.60% (G:7.90% B:0.68%)
Opponent: 68.40% (G:33.50% B:3.86%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.306..-0.285) - [77.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 33 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 5/2 eq:-0.300 (-0.005)
Player: 29.14% (G:6.88% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 70.86% (G:23.04% B:4.83%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.309..-0.292) - [22.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
3. Rollout¹ 24/23 13/11 eq:-0.329 (-0.034)
Player: 30.24% (G:6.93% B:0.50%)
Opponent: 69.76% (G:29.63% B:2.08%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.338..-0.320) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
4. Rollout¹ 13/12 13/11 eq:-0.333 (-0.038)
Player: 27.86% (G:6.30% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 72.14% (G:20.84% B:2.89%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.342..-0.325) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
5. Rollout¹ 7/6 7/5 eq:-0.363 (-0.068)
Player: 27.31% (G:6.25% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 72.69% (G:22.91% B:3.25%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.372..-0.355) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 15 seconds
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
Spoiler
A close one, but we chose the right move. The good news is that as of this play we were still 30% to win the game. Tha bad news is that we were 33% to lose a gammon.
XGID=-B--cCBB---B-B---bbd-bb-B-:1:1:1:21:0:2:0:5:10
1. Rollout¹ 24/23 5/3 eq:-0.295
Player: 31.60% (G:7.90% B:0.68%)
Opponent: 68.40% (G:33.50% B:3.86%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.306..-0.285) - [77.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 33 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 5/2 eq:-0.300 (-0.005)
Player: 29.14% (G:6.88% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 70.86% (G:23.04% B:4.83%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.309..-0.292) - [22.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
3. Rollout¹ 24/23 13/11 eq:-0.329 (-0.034)
Player: 30.24% (G:6.93% B:0.50%)
Opponent: 69.76% (G:29.63% B:2.08%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.338..-0.320) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
4. Rollout¹ 13/12 13/11 eq:-0.333 (-0.038)
Player: 27.86% (G:6.30% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 72.14% (G:20.84% B:2.89%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.342..-0.325) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
5. Rollout¹ 7/6 7/5 eq:-0.363 (-0.068)
Player: 27.31% (G:6.25% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 72.69% (G:22.91% B:3.25%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.372..-0.355) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 15 seconds
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
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