Poll
Question: Move 
Option 1: 11/5, 8/3
votes: 0
Option 2: 13/7, 13/8
votes: 1
Option 3: 13/8, 11/5
votes: 5
Option 4: 8/2, 6/1
votes: 0
Option 5: 11/6, 8/2
votes: 0
Title: Game 1, move 5 : Herd 6-5
Post by: diane on August 25, 2012, 10:07:06 AM
Post by: diane on August 25, 2012, 10:07:06 AM
move?
Title: Re: Game 1, move 5 : Herd 3-2
Post by: stog on August 25, 2012, 12:47:22 PM
Post by: stog on August 25, 2012, 12:47:22 PM
erm.......the pic shows 6/5 roll? ;)
Title: Re: Game 1, move 5 : Herd 6-5
Post by: diane on August 25, 2012, 03:32:52 PM
Post by: diane on August 25, 2012, 03:32:52 PM
Picture is correct - title not updated :blush:
All aligned properly now...
All aligned properly now...
Title: Re: Game 1, move 5 : Herd 6-5
Post by: stog on August 25, 2012, 06:34:11 PM
Post by: stog on August 25, 2012, 06:34:11 PM
thx diane
Title: Re: Game 1, move 5 : Herd 6-5
Post by: ah_clem on August 28, 2012, 09:51:36 PM
Post by: ah_clem on August 28, 2012, 09:51:36 PM
XG results
XG Roller++ puts the two vote-getting plays fairly close with anything else being a whopper.
3-ply rollout for the top two moves show a statistical tie. 13/8 13/7 wins fewer games (a single direct shot vs a double indirect shot is about even chance, but the blot in Patti's homeboard will be left uncovered with all the indirect hits) but wins more gammons.
XGID=---BbBD-A--B-B-c-d-c-Bba--:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:5:10
1. XG Roller++ 13/8 11/5 eq:+0.010
Player: 49.39% (G:8.41% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 50.61% (G:6.34% B:0.14%)
2. XG Roller++ 13/8 13/7 eq:-0.003 (-0.013)
Player: 49.03% (G:8.93% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 50.97% (G:7.10% B:0.16%)
3. XG Roller++ 11/5 8/3 eq:-0.072 (-0.082)
Player: 47.01% (G:8.31% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 52.99% (G:7.23% B:0.18%)
4. XG Roller++ 11/6 8/2 eq:-0.082 (-0.092)
Player: 46.80% (G:8.58% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 53.20% (G:7.66% B:0.23%)
5. XG Roller++ 8/2 6/1 eq:-0.089 (-0.099)
Player: 46.80% (G:9.04% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 53.20% (G:8.62% B:0.28%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
1. Rollout¹ 13/8 11/5 eq:-0.023
Player: 48.92% (G:9.36% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 51.08% (G:6.66% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.033..-0.013) - [77.7%]
Duration: 13 minutes 28 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 13/8 13/7 eq:-0.029 (-0.005)
Player: 48.65% (G:9.77% B:0.31%)
Opponent: 51.35% (G:7.31% B:0.24%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.038..-0.019) - [22.3%]
Duration: 12 minutes 55 seconds
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
Spoiler
XG Roller++ puts the two vote-getting plays fairly close with anything else being a whopper.
3-ply rollout for the top two moves show a statistical tie. 13/8 13/7 wins fewer games (a single direct shot vs a double indirect shot is about even chance, but the blot in Patti's homeboard will be left uncovered with all the indirect hits) but wins more gammons.
XGID=---BbBD-A--B-B-c-d-c-Bba--:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:5:10
1. XG Roller++ 13/8 11/5 eq:+0.010
Player: 49.39% (G:8.41% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 50.61% (G:6.34% B:0.14%)
2. XG Roller++ 13/8 13/7 eq:-0.003 (-0.013)
Player: 49.03% (G:8.93% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 50.97% (G:7.10% B:0.16%)
3. XG Roller++ 11/5 8/3 eq:-0.072 (-0.082)
Player: 47.01% (G:8.31% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 52.99% (G:7.23% B:0.18%)
4. XG Roller++ 11/6 8/2 eq:-0.082 (-0.092)
Player: 46.80% (G:8.58% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 53.20% (G:7.66% B:0.23%)
5. XG Roller++ 8/2 6/1 eq:-0.089 (-0.099)
Player: 46.80% (G:9.04% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 53.20% (G:8.62% B:0.28%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
1. Rollout¹ 13/8 11/5 eq:-0.023
Player: 48.92% (G:9.36% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 51.08% (G:6.66% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.033..-0.013) - [77.7%]
Duration: 13 minutes 28 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 13/8 13/7 eq:-0.029 (-0.005)
Player: 48.65% (G:9.77% B:0.31%)
Opponent: 51.35% (G:7.31% B:0.24%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.038..-0.019) - [22.3%]
Duration: 12 minutes 55 seconds
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
[close]