Oh, look... I can hit! And then... blah. My board is weaker, I have a blot dangling out there, and I'd be leaving a couple of others strewn about the board. That can't be good.
On the flip side, the herd has two blots dangling out there, and they're sort of in an awkward position. Nobody really controls the outfield. Coming out with 21/18(2) is obvious, but then what?
My options are to come farther out with 18/15(2), or to make my five point with 8/5(2). Truthfully, I decided between them by making both plays and picking the one that looked better. Logically, making my five point seems to have a lot of long-term value, plus staying back on 18 makes the herd a little bit more vulnerable.