FIBS Board backgammon forum
Backgammon => Fibsboard Forum Matches => FFM 14 => Topic started by: diane on September 24, 2012, 11:26:09 AM
?
The cube... the cube is MINE! Bwahahahaha.
I think she means 'take' :wacko: :laugh:
Cube decision rollout.
Spoiler
This is a close one. XG Roller+ put it as a double by .001. A full rollout says it's correct to double by a margin of .023
The take seemed pretty trivial, but you never know. Sometimes you just need to turn the cube to see if your opponent will make a mistake.
BTW, at a normal match score, it would be a whopper to hold the cube here. AtS, the nasty recubes are the factor making it a close decision.
XGID=---b-BCBBBB-a----a-cbbbbAA:0:0:1:00:2:0:0:5:10
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 72.73% (G:15.60% B:0.47%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.27% (G:6.56% B:0.60%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.02% (G:15.95% B:0.81%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.98% (G:6.60% B:1.15%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.580, Double=+1.137
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.798 (-0.023)
Double/Take: +0.821
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.179)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.017 (+0.781..+0.815)
Confidence Double: ± 0.028 (+0.793..+0.849)
Double Decision confidence: 91.6%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 17 minutes 52 seconds
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
You have to love the concept of a 'normal' match score in backgammon ;)