Poll
We're 1 in 6 to hit, after which we win about 85% of the time. If we don't hit, we're about four pips below the Trice point (point of last take) in a straight race. Since we have some additional hitting chances, let's say we win about 25% of the games where we don't hit.
(1/6 * .85) + (5/6 * .25) does not add up to a double. I don't even need to do the math.
Roll.
XGR++
There are situations where it is correct to cube with 33% GWC, but this is not one of them.
Sure, we've got 24/36 to hit, but 67% to hit doesn't translate into 67% to win - that open 5 point is an invitation to out race us.
XGID=-CBBB-BAA--a------Bdbbcc--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10
Analyzed in XG Roller++
Player Winning Chances: 33.56% (G:0.33% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 66.44% (G:1.80% B:0.06%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=-0.343, Double=-0.662
Cubeful Equities:
No double: -0.518
Double/Take: -1.379 (-0.860)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+1.518)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 26.6%
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Question: Double?
Option 1: Yes please
votes: 0
Option 2: Not now
votes: 8
Title: Game 1, move 11 : Herd to cube?
Post by: diane on March 26, 2013, 08:34:49 PM
Post by: diane on March 26, 2013, 08:34:49 PM
Linus rolled 6-5, which was a forced move of Bar/14
Ready to cube yet?
I am away for Easter, but should be able to keep it moving - I'm uploading the file though, Just in case I have no reception in the middle of the Murray river :laugh:
Ready to cube yet?
I am away for Easter, but should be able to keep it moving - I'm uploading the file though, Just in case I have no reception in the middle of the Murray river :laugh:
Title: Re: Game 1, move 11 : Herd to cube?
Post by: ah_clem on March 27, 2013, 12:55:55 AM
Post by: ah_clem on March 27, 2013, 12:55:55 AM
Spoiler
We're 1 in 6 to hit, after which we win about 85% of the time. If we don't hit, we're about four pips below the Trice point (point of last take) in a straight race. Since we have some additional hitting chances, let's say we win about 25% of the games where we don't hit.
(1/6 * .85) + (5/6 * .25) does not add up to a double. I don't even need to do the math.
Roll.
[close]
Title: Re: Game 1, move 11 : Herd to cube?
Post by: KDP on March 27, 2013, 01:13:33 AM
Post by: KDP on March 27, 2013, 01:13:33 AM
Spoiler
i dont want to say " i told you so" regarding the open 5 pt but.............. ND
[close]
Title: Re: Game 1, move 11 : Herd to cube?
Post by: diane on March 27, 2013, 03:23:05 AM
Post by: diane on March 27, 2013, 03:23:05 AM
5-0 seems pretty decided..so I will move along before leaving for my river holiday ;)
Title: Re: Game 1, move 11 : Herd to cube?
Post by: ah_clem on March 29, 2013, 07:59:01 PM
Post by: ah_clem on March 29, 2013, 07:59:01 PM
XGR++
Spoiler
There are situations where it is correct to cube with 33% GWC, but this is not one of them.
Sure, we've got 24/36 to hit, but 67% to hit doesn't translate into 67% to win - that open 5 point is an invitation to out race us.
XGID=-CBBB-BAA--a------Bdbbcc--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10
Analyzed in XG Roller++
Player Winning Chances: 33.56% (G:0.33% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 66.44% (G:1.80% B:0.06%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=-0.343, Double=-0.662
Cubeful Equities:
No double: -0.518
Double/Take: -1.379 (-0.860)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+1.518)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 26.6%
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
[close]